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Xi's time to party

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A picture shows Chinese President Xi Jinping's portrait during an exhibition displaying China's achievements for the past five years, as a part of the celebrations of the upcoming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) at Beijing Exhibition Centre in Beijing, China, 10 October 2017. (Photo: Reuters/Jason Lee).

In Brief

In mid-October at the 19th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a few men in identical suits will take their places on a raised dais in front of an audience of three thousand delegates, a few hundred advisors, dozens of claqueurs and the world’s media.

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These men will comprise the Standing Committee of the CCP that will run China for the next five years.

Chinese heads of state are supposed to rule for two roughly five-year terms. Xi Jinping, the incumbent, was inaugurated at the 18th Party Congress. The forthcoming 19th Party Congress is the supposed halfway point of Xi’s rule.

The importance of the 19th Party Congress is simple: it is the endpoint of a process that determines who will run China. The Party rules the government, and party leaders outrank government ministers. The government transition happens in March 2018.

For Xi, the 19th Congress is important as he shall have far greater ability to choose his subordinates than he had last time. The personnel for a ruler’s first term are largely chosen by the outgoing regime and it is not until the second term that the Party leader can pick his own people.

The Congress is also important as it will allow Xi to outline his agenda for the next five years. Congresses are large, carefully managed series of two back-to-back meetings (called ‘Plenums’) that can change the Party’s constitution, force people to retire, bring in new blood and provide a platform for the Party leader to speak about their future direction for the Party.

We still know little about the likely outcomes of the 19th Congress. We don’t know how many men will walk on stage, or what job they will hold, but we are pretty sure of their gender. China usually only has one woman among its 25 most senior leaders, and only one of Mao’s wives has ever broken into the Party’s innermost sanctum.

But we do know a great deal about what these men will be meant to do in the five years that follow the Congress. They will be expected to support current Chinese leader Xi Jinping in his quest to govern China. They will show their support through doing the jobs allocated to them. The roles and responsibilities of the major leaders are not likely to change significantly, though new people will assume the posts.

Of the personality and preferences of Xi, we know a little. Xi likes to cover the country’s policy turf and he places himself in charge of as many areas as possible. This makes him appear a strong leader who gets things done.

But by personifying power, Xi does remove the institutional firewalls built to insulate the Party’s leadership from blame should things go wrong. Major decisions are made by consensus behind closed doors. Hence, more frequently than in other political systems, those with responsibility in particular policy areas cannot advocate public positions at odds with the official line. In return, the head of sector was usually able to set the official line. But Xi has turned this upside-down: he regularly takes the personal credit for things, as well as interfering in others turf.

For example, Executive Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli — the head of China’s economy — has a degree in economics, while the head of the government Li Keqiang has a doctorate in economics. But Zhang has had no distinguishable impact during his time in office.

Further, Zhang and Li are responsible for announcing important economic policies and for policy development. But Xi has overridden these norms a number of times already and changed economic policy by fiat and public decree. Zhang is the head of the rhetorically omnivorous Belt and Road Initiative, but the program is described almost ubiquitously as a ‘Xi Jinping’ creation. So should anything go wrong in the economy, it will be harder for Xi to blame Zhang.

Xi’s predilection for personifying power worries those who would like to see China’s political system develop more stable rules that constrain Party power.

Xi’s behaviour has also led many to predict that he will use this Party Congress to set himself up to be leader for more than two terms. If Xi allows other leaders to stay on beyond conventional retirement age or gives his own ideological pronouncements an elevated status in the Party constitution, it is argued that this makes it probable that he will extend his hold on power.

Yet predictions of Xi staying on are based on flimsy evidence. The retirement age has changed quite regularly, but in the past it has almost always changed based on rulers wanting to get rid of people they do not like. Government positions have rules on age. Party positions — the ones to be decided at the Congress — do not. And the status of one’s thought, while important, does not override the Party Constitution. So even should Xi’s thoughts be elevated in the Party Constitution, this does not then allow him to break other rules.

Dr Ryan Manuel is AsiaGlobal Fellow at Hong Kong University. He is completing a book on the rules of the Chinese political system.

One response to “Xi’s time to party”

  1. ‘Zhang has had no distinguishable impact during his time in office.’

    Zhang Gaoli has been the hardest working in the Politburo, and runs more Leading Groups than anyone else. His impact on the work of the 18th Central Committee is unrivaled and his retirement leaves an astonishing political vacuum.

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