Then, in the early hours of 10 May, it became clear that the will of the Malaysian people had overwhelmed a manipulated electoral system, with the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition gaining enough parliamentary seats to form the first non-BN government in the country’s history.
There is plenty of uncertainty about how the Pakatan Harapan government will perform, but the opportunity to breathe new life into Malaysia’s democracy and public policy created by a change of management is itself worth celebrating.
A change of government does not automatically mean a change in the ideas and habits that shape how Malaysia is run. Nothing sums up some of the contradictions inherent in the new government better than its leader: the newly-installed Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Having Mahathir lead the charge against Najib made sense, as he was able to draw on nostalgia for the Mahathir era to make Pakatan Harapan competitive in the Malay heartland. But unless new leaders such as Anwar Ibrahim, who is newly released from prison and touted to take over from Mahathir as prime minister, are determined to bring about fundamental institutional reforms , Malaysia’s decrepit political system could remain unchanged.
In this week’s lead article, Dan Slater zeroes in on Mahathir’s ambiguous role in the opposition’s victory and as prime minister in the new government. He also examines what the Malaysian election result might portend for the correlation between national wealth and democracy.
Mahathir threw his weight behind the opposition after falling out with Najib, his former ally and protege. Doing so meant an unlikely reconciliation with Anwar Ibrahim, the former UMNO finance minister whom Mahathir threw in jail on trumped-up sodomy charges after a falling out between them over Malaysia’s response to the Asian Financial Crisis. Last week, Anwar walked to freedom after Mahathir secured a royal pardon for a second sodomy conviction engineered by Najib. If all goes to plan, he will take over as prime minister next year or the year after.
The relationship between these two equally charismatic — and equally self-confident — figures and their parties (which are now coalition partners) will be crucial in shaping the character of the new government and Malaysia’s democratic future. Whereas Anwar is respected worldwide as a democrat and liberal Muslim intellectual, Mahathir made his political name as a Malay nationalist and unapologetic authoritarian. Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) party is a home for many pro-democracy activists and civil society figures, whereas Mahathir’s BERSATU party is not much more than a splinter party of the main opposition UMNO designed to capture an anti-Najib protest vote in the Malay heartland.
Can Mahathir’s second term as prime minister be the redemption tale that so many want to see? Certainly, he needs to demonstrate that his return to politics was truly in service of a more democratic and better-governed Malaysia — not just the outcome of personal animus towards Najib. While Mahathir certainly helped the opposition make inroads into the all-important rural Malay electorate, the opposition’s victory was also due to the overwhelming support of urban voters fed up with BN corruption and bad policy; as Slater writes, ‘Mahathir is but foam atop this long-swelling opposition wave’.
These voters won’t have much patience with Mahathir if he attempts to establish a BN-lite government. One test against which Mahathir’s performance might be scored is how well he implements the institutional reform agenda that Pakatan Harapan promised the Malaysian people in its election manifesto.
Early signs are encouraging. After some confusion, Mahathir has reaffirmed that the government will repeal a widely criticised ‘anti-Fake News’ law. Pakatan Harapan’s economic agenda was more obviously geared towards winning votes than satisfying policy purists, but the presence of experienced technocrats on a policy ‘council of elders’ convened after the election gives hope that sound ideas will get a fair hearing, except perhaps the populist promise to remove the GST. Successful economic rejuvenation and cracking through the ‘middle income trap’ will be a further test of Slater’s ‘unbreakable global correlation’ between democracy and wealth.
Most gratifyingly of all for ordinary Malaysians is that a full accounting for the 1MDB sovereign wealth fund scandal seems to be getting underway. It is important for the rule of law that those who misappropriated taxpayers’ money are brought to justice; naturally, at the same time it is also essential that Najib, his family and his associates are dealt with fairly and afforded due process, lest investigations be seen merely an act of political revenge.
But while the Shakespearean elements to the elite-level struggle in GE14 have captured the world’s attention, its result shouldn’t be reduced to a clash of personalities. As Slater writes, it is the product of determined campaigning ‘over the long haul by men and women — those with the courage to translate socioeconomic transformation into a freer politics for their countrymen and countrywomen. This victory is theirs.’ The hope is that the new Prime Minister and the prime minister-in-waiting will make the most of it.
The EAF Editorial Board is located in the Crawford School of Public Policy, College of Asia and the Pacific, The Australian National University.