But Abe’s plummeting approval ratings have stabilised and his administration will likely persevere due to the absence of a strong successor.

Abe’s renewed political capital since his party’s landslide victory in the Diet House of Representatives ‘snap election’ in October 2017 has failed to alleviate public mistrust of Abe and members of his inner circle. To date, this mistrust has centred around Finance Minister Taro Aso, with opposition lawmakers implicating Aso in the discounted sale of public land to Moritomo Gakuen, an ultraconservative school operator closely affiliated with Abe. Aso has already weathered multiple calls for his resignation that came despite his key position in the coalition of factions supporting Abe.

With several prime-ministerial hopefuls waiting in the wings, party lawmakers who are uneasy about their representation ahead of the 2019 Diet House of Councillors election will fight in September and beyond to elevate new leaders who can more effectively address economic revitalisation, strengthen Japan’s alliances with the United States and in Asia and neutralise external threats from North Korea and China. Even if Abe should secure another term as LDP President — a plausible outcome if no further evidence emerges around the scandals — his and Aso’s political vulnerability may allow the various factions to exact greater concessions and control over government decision-making and to shape policy beyond the summer months.

By September, some factions may tire of Abe’s stilted progress on economic revitalisation and constitutional reform and his inability to inspire public confidence, much less maintain order in the Diet. Opposition lawmakers have obstructed the current ordinary Diet session multiple times, which forced the LDP and junior coalition partner Komeito to extend the session by a month to ratify key legislation related to casino-based integrated resorts and white-collar labour reforms.

Further underscoring Abe’s vulnerability are the glimmers of antipathy and ambition displayed by LDP General Council Chair Wataru Takeshita — the new leader of the party’s third-largest faction. With his faction’s rank-and-file growing frustrated by its poor cabinet representation and failure to deploy a candidate in recent presidential elections, Takeshita may attempt to assume the role of powerbroker in September or even field a successor candidate from his political base. But Takeshita is not expected to seek higher office himself and the faction’s other distinguished names (Economic Revitalisation Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Health Minister Katsunobu Kato) are seen as lacking the ‘centripetal force’ needed to carry the party. Takeshita may throw his faction’s weight behind either of Abe’s other strongest rivals — former LDP secretary-general Shigeru Ishiba or current LDP Policy Research Council Chair Fumio Kishida.

Ishiba has spent years positioning unsuccessfully against the current administration and today remains a public favourite alongside former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi’s son Shinjiro, who is also a prime-ministerial hopeful. The elder Koizumi has been publicly dismissive of Abe in recent months and may help his son onto higher office. Ishiba’s established reputation as an Abe critic, coupled with his experience and the younger Koizumi’s lack thereof, makes him the better candidate in this election cycle. Yet like Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Seiko Noda — another Abe rival who is dismissive of Abe’s economic policies — Ishiba has been marginalised within the party since establishing his own faction in 2015.

For his part, Kishida is taciturn about his political future. Having secured two additional cabinet seats for his faction during the previous cabinet reshuffle in August 2017, Kishida may be reluctant to challenge Abe. Indeed, Kishida declined an offer from Aso to unite their factions in 2017. While Aso may fancy himself a kingmaker, Abe’s elevation of Aso’s close associate Taro Kono to foreign minister may defray any bad faith between Abe and Aso following the Moritomo scandal. This all bodes ill for Ishiba, whose prospects of displacing Abe are slim without the support of either Kishida or Aso.

While the LDP does not espouse a unified party platform, most party members cleave to several broad principles regardless of factional allegiance. With the party’s collective support for export-based economic growth and close cooperation with the United States on security issues, new scandal-free leaders could shift the aperture of Japan’s economic recovery and international partnerships. They could double down on Abe’s prior commitments to economic revitalisation and a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’, or explore an additional rebalancing towards China, the latter given doubts regarding the future of US policies that affect Japan.

Despite Abe’s ostensibly easy rapport with US President Donald Trump, their governments have been at loggerheads over US protectionism and North Korea. Tokyo must rebuild that level of trust from the ground up regardless of whichever prime minister navigates this critical juncture in the bilateral relationship. Though Tokyo’s posture towards the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership can be expected to remain forward-leaning and contrary to Trump’s, new leadership could revisit a formalised bilateral trade agreement with the United States. The new ‘free, fair and reciprocal’ trade mechanism led by Motegi and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will likely attempt to mitigate long-term tensions while avoiding major adjustments to the framework of bilateral economic relations.

Elliot I Silverberg is an International Relations Master’s Degree candidate at the Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.