Prior to arriving in Beijing, Abe expressed his hopes that Japan–China relations would be elevated to a new level following his visit. Abe’s hopes seem to have been realised. China and Japan plan to continue the exchange of summit visits — Abe invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Japan and attend the G20 summit in Osaka in 2019 — and confirmed that they will work together to develop mutually beneficial relations.
China and Japan concluded a number of important agreements during Abe’s visit. The two sides injected new impetus into developing third-country infrastructure cooperation projects between Chinese and Japanese companies, signing 52 agreements worth a total of US$18 billion. They also signed a new three-year currency swap agreement, totalling 200 billion yuan (US$30 billion or 3.4 trillion yen) and reviving the bilateral currency swap line that lapsed in 2013. Moving forward, China and Japan are working together towards consensus on how to safeguard the global trading system, including the World Trade Organization and other multilateral mechanisms.
On the East China Sea, China and Japan agreed to strengthen maritime crisis management, establish a diplomatic consultation mechanism and sign a maritime rescue agreement. Cooperation between China and Japan on people-to-people and youth exchanges, energy conservation and environmental protection, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, medical care and coping with an ageing society also have new momentum.
The focus of Abe’s visit to China was on promoting practical cooperation between China and Japan. But a series of underlying problems between the two countries — such as historical disputes, territorial conflicts, and security issues in the East China Sea and South China Sea — are yet to be fully resolved.
There are further opportunities to develop China–Japan relations in the offing. Tokyo will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2020. In 2022, the 50th anniversary of the normalisation of China–Japan diplomatic relations will be celebrated in the same year that Beijing will hold the Winter Olympic Games. In that year too, Hangzhou will hold the Asian Games. China, Japan and South Korea will also alternately host meetings among the leaders of the three countries under the China–Japan–Korea dialogue. These official and non-official visits will help to deepen bilateral relations.
Upon his return to Tokyo, Abe will make every effort to pass the Liberal Democratic Party’s constitutional amendment bill in parliament before the election of the Japanese House of Councillors in July 2019. During this period, it can be expected that Abe will strive to maintain the positive momentum of China–Japan relations in the context of President Xi’s planned visit to Japan.
But if the Japanese Diet does pass the constitutional amendment bill and moves to a national referendum on constitutional change, the relationship between China and Japan could be affected. Constitutional change and any consequent long-run Japanese military build up would affect the current re-engagement strategy.
Liu Jiangyong is Professor of International Relations at the Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University.
With each step towards the establishment of a muscular Japanese military, China becomes ever more friendlier towards Japan. Revising Japan’s Article 9 while beefing up the Japanese military is a sure way to bring China to the negotiating table. If you want peace, prepare for war. Si vis pacem, para bellum.
Myanmar is good destination for building confidence and trust between Japan and China. Both nations have been offering technologies to Myanmar to revamp its railways system and built a new transportation corridor. There is no rivalry developed but a smooth competition between the two nations. Railway and transportation are two important projects to transform Myanmar to a large extent. A new powerful Myanmar is in the process of offering new projects and it will be too near for the country to jump into a modern railways and transportation system.
Beijing inked a long-awaited deal to build a deep-water port in the town of Kyaukpyu on the Indian Ocean. There was a basic agreement signed with a Chinese conglomerate CITIC Group and the work begin on the port on 8 November 2018 after two years of negotiations. Chairman of CITIC Group Chang Zhenming said this meant “the beginning of further steps”. “Signing this agreement is the starting step for our businesses.”
There are various activities ahead,” he remarked. U Set Aung, as Chair of Kyaukphyu SEZ Management Committee (KSMC), said the project will not amount to debt burden for Myanmar. “Many negotiations were made to make the project sustainable and to avoid a burden for Myanmar both at present and in the future,” he explained, pledging transparency in the process.
The project designed at a greater regional connectivity. The Kyaukphyu SEZ is part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, and the project will benefit the people of Myanmar and promote the China-Myanmar friendship. CITIC Group initially won the tender to construct the Kyaukphyu (SEZ) with an estimate investment of US$ 7 billion in December 2015.
The development comes after months of difficult negotiations between China state investment vehicle CITIC Group and the NLD-Government to reduce the Chinese consortium’s stake in the port from 85 percent to 70 percent. The Chinese have since agreed to accept a 70 percent stake the deep sea port in Kyaukphyu. The remaining 30 percent will be taken up by the Myanmar Government and local public firms. Under the previous Government, CITIC had won the original tender to build the port based on an 85:15 ratio.
Meanwhile, development of the deep sea port will take place in four stages as originally planned, but the first phase has been scaled down and is now expected to cost US$ 1.3 billion, according to U Khin Maung Cho, Minister of Industry. This will involve construction of a terminal with the capacity for 2-3 vessels. Chinese oil companies from Kunming, capital of Yunnan province in China, will be involved in oil and gas transportation.
The port will be a crucial piece of the China-Myanmar economic corridor, which would connect Kyaukpyu and the Chinese border via rail and highways. Once completed, the corridor will give inland China direct access to the Indian Ocean, and be a symbol of President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative.
Already, pipelines are running from Kyaukpyu to inland China, transporting oil and gas. This route bypasses the Straits of Malacca – any future troublesome point to offset the business. This is in China’s greatest interest to avoid the Malacca point and get connected with Myanmar for oil and gas and all crucial maritime exports in the region. The project has the potential to transform the economy of Myanmar.
Yet Japan is ready to upgrade the railways from Yangon to Mandalay, which is going to be 620 km long – the greatest route. Two state-owned companies, China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group and Myanmar Railways, signed an agreement on 22 October 2017. Beijing’s vast trade and infrastructure push the “Belt and Road Initiative”. This will increase people’s traffic and goods transportation to a large extent.
Mandalay is an important point before going into Muse. The north of the country between Muse and Mandalay is seen as crucial to improving the connectivity of the South East Asian nation. It is also part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor – linking Yunnan with key in Myanmar – under The economic corridor spans 1,700km – from Kunming to Mandalay, then east to Yangon and west to the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone in Rakhine State, where China wants to build a deep water port and where it already has a cross-border oil pipeline.
Since 2015, Myanmar has been heading toward a market approach. There is also huge potential in the country to upgrade its structure with China and also within the rest of the country. Things have been moving in the right direction. China and Japan have been assisting the Myanmar Government despite the Rohingya crisis. Japan has adopted a complete stance on the issue with the Government in Myanmar. The heads of State of Japan, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam met in Tokyo for the Japan-Mekong Summit on 9 October 2017, and reached an agreement on the “Tokyo Strategy 2018.” The strategy includes cooperation for nation-state development, such as human resources, infrastructure, and others. Myanmar prioritize cooperation with Japan. While the West has been isolating Myanmar on human right violation of Rohingya, China and Japan provide a great cushion to Myanmar.
The writer is Researcher at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.