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  • A Chinese Coast Guard vessel blocks the Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4, on its way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, 5 March 2024 (Photo: Reuters/Adrian Portugal).

    In its 2016 ruling, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague found China's claims to the South China Sea, based on its 'nine-dash' line, had no legal standing under the UNCLOS. But the Philippines remains torn between negotiating with China individually and seeking support from its ally the United States, which risks exacerbating Chinese fears of containment via proxy. ASEAN unity, expressed through effective cooperation and regional institutions, could provide a solution by helping the smaller nations of Asia assert their collective interests against larger powers, as well as serving as a platform for the defence of economic openness through mechanisms such as RCEP.

Editor's Pick

ASEAN unity key to dealing with East Asia’s strategic dilemma

The 2024 State of Southeast Asia Survey, by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, exposes an interesting disconnect — approximately half of the respondents favoured siding with China and half favoured the United States but showed greater trust in the United States. These findings reflect Southeast Asia's strategic challenge in managing the rise of China and escalating China–US rivalry, in addition to concerns about maintaining the rules-based order, liberal global trade and the rule of international law. This strategic dilemma is made more difficult by the rapidly changing geoeconomic landscape and emerging protectionism across the globe.

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Editor's Pick

US Vice President Kamala Harris, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Philippines’ President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attend the 18th East Asia Summit during the 43rd ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on 7 September 2023 (Photo: Reuters/Yasuyoshi Chiba).

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