But the latest surveys show a recent shift away from the two ‘establishment’ candidates — former cabinet secretary Manuel ‘Mar’ Roxas of the administration Liberal Party, who has received president Benigno S. ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III’s endorsement, and Vice President Jejomar ‘Jojo’ Binay of the opposition United Nationalist Alliance, who has broken with the sitting president.

Neophyte senator Grace Poe (who is running as an independent but is supported by the second largest party, the Nationalist People’s Coalition) and Davao City mayor Rodrigo ‘Digong’ Duterte (running under the moribund PDP-Laban) have emerged as the clear front-runners in the final weeks of the campaign.

In another recent development Ferdinand ‘Bong Bong’ R. Marcos, Jr. is now also tied for the lead in the polls for vice presidency, which is elected separately in the Philippines, with victors often from different parties as the president. This is an ominous sign given his refusal to acknowledge crimes committed during his father’s dictatorship.

Commentators often view Philippine presidential campaigns as determined purely by popularity, name recall or money. But this overlooks the importance of the enduring narratives that candidates draw upon to woo voters’ support, via widespread political campaigning both on air and on the ground.

While political parties are relatively weak in the Philippines, presidential candidates have based their campaigns on the major narratives of reform, pro-poor populism and neo-authoritarian calls for ‘peace and order’.

Those looking for a ‘safe pair of hands’ to maintain internal political stability and guide the Philippines through both a difficult world economic environment and tense relations with China may look to Mar Roxas, who prospered under the current administration. But Roxas, who has a long record in government, has struggled to gain traction with his promise to continue the ‘straight path’ (daang matuwid) — a reference to Aquino’s anti-corruption reform agenda.

Vice President Jejomar ‘Jojo’ Binay, on the other hand, has relied on pledges to do more to help the poor. But he faces serious corruption accusations from his time as mayor of the Metro Manila business district of Makati and is widely distrusted by the country’s elites. Binay has tried to turn these allegations to his own advantage by portraying himself as a victim of a conspiracy. This is in line with his overall campaign strategy of presenting himself as a champion of the poorest Filipinos who have not benefited from recent economic growth.

But recent surveys have shown that Binay and Roxas’ approval ratings have plateaued, while those of Poe and Duterte are rising. This appears to be the result of a widespread perception that Roxas is uncaring and incompetent, while Binay is corrupt. In clear contrast, Poe’s slogan ‘Galing at Puso’ (competence and heart) sums up her appeal. The other popular candidate Duterte, a local mayor with a no-nonsense, ‘tough guy’ image, is the first candidate from Mindanao to have a real chance of winning the presidency.

But Duterte poses a grave challenge to the country’s fragile democratic institutions. He has promised to ‘clean up the country’ within six months and has threatened to abolish Congress or tame the courts if they try to stand in his way. The rapid rise of voter support for Duterte, despite his late entry into the race, highlights the pent-up anger among the lower-middle class at the deterioration of public order and concerns about growing drug abuse.

Duterte’s neo-authoritarian style, alongside ‘anti-Imperial Manila’ sentiments, has fuelled his popularity, particularly in his birthplace of southern Mindanao. Duterte does not deny his poor human rights record — instead he brags about extrajudicial killings that he claims were necessary to pacify Davao. Along with his bombastic style and rough language — which is typical of a many local politicians but unusual in national politics — this cavalier attitude makes him a kind of Philippine version of Donald Trump.

The most promising candidate in many ways is Grace Poe. Poe combines the pro-poor ‘populist’ appeal of her adoptive father — actor-turned-politician Fernando Poe, Jr. — with her image as a competent and serious-minded reformer. Where Duterte offers an iron fist, Poe offers a velvet glove. But her message is failing to take root.

Poe narrowly avoided disqualification for becoming a US citizen before returning to the Philippines over a decade ago. This has led to worries that she is out of touch with the average Filipino. On top of this, the endorsement of the Nationalist People’s Coalition and her defence of its founder — former Marcos crony Eduardo ‘Danding’ Cojuangco Jr — have led to charges she is a ‘puppet’.

The campaign strategies of the four major presidential candidates are all proving constraining. Roxas’ reformist appeal is hindered by questions about his competence and unfavourable association with the Aquino administration. Corruption charges against Binay have alienated key elite groups. Duterte’s macho demagoguery to bring ‘discipline and order’ to the country at the expense of democratic institutions is popular with his lower-middle class base, but scares independents. And Poe is struggling to combine her reformist image with populist appeals.

How effective Grace Poe can be with her more inclusive and softer approach will depend on how successful she is in convincing poor voters that she is the rightful heir of her adoptive father in championing their interests. The presidential race is still wide open.

Julio C. Teehankee is Dean of the College of Liberal Arts at De La Salle University and Executive Secretary of the Asian Political and International Studies Association (APISA).

Mark R Thompson is acting head of the Department of Asian and International Studies and director of the Southeast Asia Research Centre, both of the City University of Hong Kong.