Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Authors: Desmond Ball and Nicholas Farrelly, ANU
In the lead-up to Thailand’s July 2011 election the tough-talking army chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, weighed into the political debate, insisting that voters should defend the king and elect ‘good people’.
General Prayuth hoped, no doubt, that his efforts to sway popular sentiment would lead to a victory for the embattled Democrat Party. Read more…
Authors: Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly, ANU
Thaksin Shinawatra — and the multi-pronged political, commercial and social movement that bears his long-term imprimatur — has shown that, when it comes to winning elections, he is Thailand’s best.
His sister, Yingluck, will become Thailand’s first female Prime Minister. Read more…
Author: Nicholas Farrelly, ANU
Thailand goes to the polls today for only the second time since the military coup of September 2006.
That coup was designed to obliterate the election-winning juggernaut commanded by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Read more…
Author: Nicholas Farrelly, ANU
In Thailand’s traditional style of kick-boxing, the bout begins with ornate and time-consuming preambles. Offerings are made. Respect is shown. Brutal bursts of punches, high kicks, knees and elbows follow. It is fast and furious combat that rewards total commitment once the fight begins.
As a public spectacle of martial prowess, Thai kick-boxing offers some insight into the formidable capacity for violence which can lurk in the corner of the easy-going Thai smile. Read more…
Authors: Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly, ANU
Thai politics has been out of the news since May 2010’s bloody crackdown on red-shirt protesters in central Bangkok. But any superficial tranquility hides the ongoing campaign by the government to neutralise their opponents and maximise the vote for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party at the election due next year.
The state of emergency declared in May has been wound back, but is still in force in Bangkok and in three strategic provinces outside the capital. Read more…
Author: Nicholas Farrelly, ANU
Over the past week Thailand’s Red Shirt protest movement has, once again, largely faded from international media coverage. Its key leaders have been arrested or are in hiding, and many others associated with Red Shirt politics in Thailand are now subjected to witch-hunts and official ridicule. Dozens have been killed, iconic buildings burned, and thousands have been left injured or traumatised.
Thailand’s reputed national ethos of compromise and conciliation has been pulverised beyond recognition. Insofar as the Thai government can claim a momentary victory over its foes it is forced to rely on the most draconian provisions of its security infrastructure.
Author: Nicholas Farrelly, New Mandala, ANU
In Thailand the number ‘nine’ is usually considered the most auspicious. It is associated with the reigning monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the ninth king of the Chakri dynasty. Spoken in Thai, it also sounds like a word for ‘progress’ (kaew). 9, 99, 999, et cetera, are regarded with special reverence: luck and good fortune are denominated in 9s.
So the year 2009 was, for that simple reason, greeted with a modest degree of optimism by many Thais. Of course, in their Buddhist calendar, it is merely 2552. Indeed, it has, in the final reckoning, proven an inauspicious time. Read more…
Author: Nicholas Farrelly
In the past fortnight Burma’s State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) decided to stop pulling its punches with some of the ‘ceasefire groups’ that share its territory.
The first of these ceasefires was agreed as the Communist Party of Burma fractured in the late 1980s. Since then, these agreements have become a consistent part of any analysis of Burma’s politics but, ultimately, they remain a wildcard in national affairs.
Author: Nicholas Farrelly
Burma’s most recognisable political figure, Aung San Suu Kyi, turns 64 today. She will likely celebrate this milestone alone. Her captors, the military men who have kept her incarcerated for 13 of the past 19 years, do not share the world’s empathy with her plight.
They dismiss Burma’s Nobel Peace Prize winner as a ‘foreign stooge’. In the next breath they can be heard celebrating the glorious life of her father, Burma’s independence hero, General Aung San. With mind-numbing regularity the senior ranks of the Burmese military heap scorn on her political party; and her supporters are disciplined and punished to a point where many find life in Burma intolerable. Each year these supporters struggle to survive while the Generals grow richer and more confident.
Over the next year we expect that the Generals will seek to engineer a transition from absolute military rule to what they call ‘discipline-flourishing democracy’. In their preferred system—one they are willing to impose with jackboots and nation-wide intimidation—there will be no place for anyone with strong foreign ties. Aung San Suu Kyi’s marriage to the late Michael Aris, a British academic, means that she may never be allowed an active role in politics again.
Author: Nicholas Farrelly, New Mandala
It is fair to say that Thailand’s Songkran festival—marking the traditional New Year— usually passes with a predictable mix of nation-wide chaos. Water fights, booze and huge crowds make for a heady and sometimes lethal combination, particularly on Thailand’s roads. It is a week of great frivolity and sadly for those caught up in the traffic carnage it is also a time of immense personal tragedy. In a normal year, Songkran is a mixed blessing: both happy and sad.
Songkran in 2009, which is celebrated today, 13 April, is far from normal. The government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had planned for a successful East Asia Summit to coincide with the traditional New Year festivities. In the Theravada Buddhist countries of Southeast Asia the annual celebration in mid-April is often called the ‘water festival’. It is a boon to tourist marketers everywhere. When Abhisit took power in December 2008, Songkran would have looked attractive as a time to host a peaceful, positive and popular get-together of ASEAN and friends.
The events of Saturday, 11 April, were not what he had in mind. The East Asia Summit venue was stormed by red-shirted anti-government protestors backed by his nemesis, deposed former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. Responding to these unprecedented and humiliating events necessitated calling off the Summit. Delegations from across Asia were helicoptered out of the venue and sent home. From the Australian end, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s plane was turned around two hours out of Bangkok. In a country as ‘face’ conscious as Thailand, Prime Minister Abhisit suffered the indignity of seeing his big weekend on the global stage spoiled by a few thousand committed opponents. They literally pushed his inadequate police cordons out of the way.
Author: Nicholas Farrelly
With the release of Melbourne man Harry Nicolaides from his Bangkok prison cell Thai authorities no doubt hope an archaic French legal term will fade from Australian memories. Lèse majesté—the crime of insulting the monarch—has given the tourist-friendly “Land of Smiles” unusually bad press.
In recent months images of a forlorn Nicolaides, manacled and pale, have been broadcast into millions of Australian living rooms. His crime was so petty and his punishment so draconian that many have asked: what is this law and why is it enforced?
The answer is not simple. Lèse majesté is a political crime. It is in place because Thailand’s royal family—supposedly above the political fray—does not want to defend itself from scurrilous public attention or offence. In theory the law should quietly protect the king and the dignity of his family.
In practice things are very different. Accusations of lèse majesté are regularly made against political opponents and some parts of the Thai bureaucracy see fit to challenge dissenters with the charge. It is not just obscure Australian authors who fall foul of it.
Authors: Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly
The celebrations by the yellow shirts at Suvanabhumi will be short-lived. The Constitutional Court has struck a blow against the elected government. Somchai has gone. Twelve cabinet members have gone.
But Thai Rak Thai, soon to take on its third incarnation, remains.
The parliament has not been dissolved and the government looks very likely to maintain its majority. The Democrat-except-when-you-can’t-win-an-election-and-then-a-judicial-coup-is-OK Party simply can’t muster the numbers. More blatant judicial or military intervention will be required to remove the government.
After the respectful lull for the king’s birthday, the People’s Alliance for Democracy will be back with new targets and provocations. But their yellow ranks may be thinner. Their international and national reputation is in tatters. Released from the cult-like hot-house atmosphere of Government House and Suvarnabhumi a good number of the ‘aunties with clappers’ may decide that dabbling in terrorism is not for them.
The greatest threat to the PAD is, of course, the formidable political machine that is Thai Rak Thai. Read more…
Author: Nicholas Farrelly
Shutting down an international airport, particularly one as busy as Bangkok, is a big deal. By disrupting the ordinary bustle of global commerce and tourism it inevitably draws worldwide attention. As a protest tactic it also guarantees the inconvenience, annoyance and impoverishment of many. For protesters it is an audacious move; one that can only be contemplated by the irrational or by those with the confidence that powerful people are on their side.
Scenes of the ongoing siege at Bangkok’s new 4-billion dollar Suvarnaphumi Airport have, this week, been broadcast far and wide. Yesterday came the news that the city’s second airport, Don Muang, has also been closed. The world is now watching, with a degree of incredulity, as a group calling itself the “People’s Alliance for Democracy”, and basking in the reflected glow of the Thai king’s yellow, bangs its drum calling for the government to fall. Read more…
Authors: Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly, New Mandala
If you do the numbers it is clear that the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leadership has chosen bloodshed over ballots.
The PAD has abandoned electoral politics. With no coherent or credible political platform their only hope is that sufficient blood will be spilt to prompt a military or royal strike against Thailand’s democratically elected government. But the army appears unwilling to act. The queen has publicly shown her support for the PAD, but the king himself has remained silent. And the international community, for its part, is standing firmly by the government.
Make no mistake, the PAD leadership wants blood on the streets and have rushed to turn the imagery of violence to their advantage. Read more…