Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
The World Bank recently published a valuable research paper (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5940 by Justin Yifu Lin and Doerte Doemeland) which presents the evidence needed to justify a globally coordinated initiative in carefully selected infrastructure investment.
A G20 initiative in 2012 could make this happen. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
A revolution in information and communications technology since the 1990s has changed the nature of production, international commerce and the importance of integration.
Eager to engage their economies in global production networks, governments have moved unilaterally to lift most tariff and other policy barriers which inhibit trade at the border. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
The 2008 global financial crisis catalysed a long-overdue transformation in the oversight of global affairs, bringing large emerging Asian economies to the G20 table.
A transition in the role of Asian countries at the G20 — from cautious and sometimes defensive to visionary and exemplary — was expected to unfold slowly, possibly taking a decade or more. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
The global economy has another serious bout of the jitters around the deep problems in Europe and uncertain recovery in the United States.
The IMF meetings in Washington may have temporarily allayed the effects of the collapse in global confidence but there remain big challenges for the G20 in developing a response to the threat of the world’s slipping back into recession.
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
Sixty years ago, when the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was established, trade in goods was the dominant form of international commerce and traditional, transparent border barriers, such as tariffs and quantitative restrictions, were the main impediments to that trade.
A recent report on challenges to the WTO and the international economic regime explains that the nature of international commerce has changed considerably. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
A landmark speech by Dr Craig Emerson, the new Australian Trade Minister, may mark a turning of the recent tide of Australian trade policy. On December 10, Emerson outlined the Australian government’s intention to return to the sound principles of economic and trade policy of the Hawke-Keating Labor Government, which held office in Australia from 1983-1996. These first-best principles have lately been neglected in the rush to sign preferential trade deals before other nations beat them to it. These principles need to be revisited if trade policy is to facilitate, rather than interfere with, market-driven global economic integration.
We live in an age where technology (especially transport, communications and information technology) provides enormous new opportunities to gain from international trade and investment, allowing ever-finer specialisation along lines of comparative advantage. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
The most important objective of international economic cooperation in 2011 is to conclude the Doha Round. The United States has the influence to do that if it is prepared to show political initiative and have realistic expectations of others.
The APEC group can also provide leadership within the G20 to tackle global problems. APEC’s Committee on Trade and Investment (CTI) can begin to set out a strategy on how the WTO might operate beyond the Doha Round. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
The economies of Northeast Asia are already closely linked. Most trade among them faces no, or negligible, formal border barriers. Nevertheless, there are many ways to promote even deeper economic integration.
Northeast Asia contains China and Japan, two of the three largest economies in the world. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
Two years ago, the global financial crisis was the catalyst that brought the emerging economic giants to the global table, promising a new world economic order. Agreement on simultaneous stimulus and sustaining openness was in marked contrast to the uncoordinated policies of the 1930s. A looming global depression was avoided and this early success has allowed the G20 to claim the right to supplant the G7/G8 as the steering committee for the global economy. The new forum now needs to shore up its legitimacy to represent the rest of the world, determine its priorities and pursue them in a credible way.
After just a few meetings, G20 communiqués are becoming longer, with nice words about an ever-wider range of important matters, while not committing participants to do very much. This combination risks a loss of credibility and salience, but can be avoided. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU
From the 1994 Bogor goals to today, ‘opening to the outside world’ is a history of economic success for APEC governments. Most traditional border barriers to trade have been reduced to negligible rates while policy development in APEC working groups has helped to make trade cheaper, easier and faster. Encouraged rather than compelled by the APEC process, these reforms helped the Asia Pacific become the most successful region in the global economy.
The host of the APEC summit in 2009, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, recommended we declare victory over APEC’s Bogor goals and move on, despite not every goal being fully met. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek
The intense climate change negotiations in Copenhagen are over. The outcome is a useful step forward, but many difficult issues still need to be agreed upon among global governments, with no international framework for enforcing any binding agreement on who will bear the many, unknown costs of adjustment.
The messy UN process, involving over 190 governments, is not likely to agree on what needs to be done. Eyes are turning to the G20, with some expecting G20 leaders to negotiate the next steps.
The G20 can contribute to the task of limiting global warming. But G20 leaders should look before they leap into negotiation over climate change or anything else. They might well pause to think of the future of the new forum – and the many other issues to address in the years immediately ahead. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek on behalf of the Australian Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation (AUSPECC)
On December 4-5, 2009, the Australian Government convened a ‘one-and-a-half track conference’ of prominent government officials, academics and opinion makers. In this week’s digest, Peter Drysdale reports on the meeting which discussed the form an Asia Pacific community might take and the role of existing forums (including APEC) within evolving regional institutional architecture.
Drysdale and Hadi Soesastro have made a useful recommendation for how Prime Minister Rudd’s proposal, could be advanced by a council of the leaders of the G20 members of APEC, together with India. Read more…
Author: Andew Elek
A potential Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) would be a preferential trading arrangement (PTA) to be built on the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (P4) between Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore which entered into force in 2006.
The P4 is an agreement among partners who understand the benefits of free trade. Singapore has never had any doubts while Chile and New Zealand learned the hard way. Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek
In a new study, titled The Doha Round: ‘Death-Defying Agenda’ or ‘Don’t Do it Again’?, Stuart Harbinson examines the origins of the Doha Round in 2001 and its painfully slow progress in missing deadline after deadline since the original date set for completion of 2005.
Recounting the frustrations of seeking a simultaneous resolution on many matters, Harbinson points out that, ‘[f]inding a static point of equilibrium across a range of complex issues was a virtually impossible task.’ Read more…
Author: Andrew Elek
The meetings of APEC ministers and leaders during the week to November 15, set the scene for pursuing a post-Bogor agenda in APEC, working alongside other forums and institutions, including the G20 and the multilateral development banks. A breakfast meeting led to a realistic approach to the Copenhagen meetings on climate change. That informal gathering may come to be seen as the first in an annual sequence of meetings where APEC leaders who are part of the G20 help shape a common approach to global issues.
The declaration of economic leaders was a businesslike, to some unexciting, summary of the highlights of APEC’s ongoing efforts. That reflects the maturity of the APEC process – there is no need for grand new initiatives each year. There was much more to the week than its low-key press and the traditional photo opportunity and declarations. It was an efficient opportunity for many bilateral discussions of pressing matters, while speeches to the CEO summit allowed leaders and ministers to set out their vision for future cooperation.