Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Andrew MacIntyre, ANU
Australia continues to enjoy markedly better economic performance than most other wealthy countries. But problems are accumulating.
The 2010 federal election yielded a hamstrung, minority government. Neither of the major parties shows any real appetite for large-scale policy reform. Read more…
Author: Andrew MacIntyre, ANU
Kevin Rudd’s political rebirth as foreign minister has been the subject of feverish discussion in Australia and some curiosity in the rest of the Asia. But it is more important for both Australian foreign policy and regional affairs than is at first apparent. In foreign policy terms, Kevin Rudd may be able to prevent Australia from following Canada’s ‘disappearing act’ in Asia. This matters.
Australia’s national conversation has been consumed in recent weeks with the unfamiliar intricacies and uncertainties of constructing a workable government following an extremely close election giving the balance of power to a combination of the small Greens party and a handful of individual political independents. Read more…
Author: Andrew MacIntyre, ANU
Barack Obama’s upcoming visit to Indonesia and Australia is likely to be one of the less difficult and more gratifying international missions he undertakes this year. But along with the surges of goodwill that will greet him in both countries, there will also be opportunities– in partnership with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Kevin Rudd – to advance significant common causes in the region and globally. And Yudhoyono’s separate bilateral visit to Canberra the week before gives added weight to the moment.
With climate change sliding down the agenda in all three countries for now, the big issue on which the three leaders will find common cause is the G20. Read more…
Author: Andrew MacIntyre
So, the result is in and the huge wave of excitement about Obama continues to roll across America and the world. What should we expect about his approach to Asia – both for relations with the big Asian states and multilateral enagement?
The first thing is to recognize that the crisis in the global financial system, the challenge of restoring economic confidence at home, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the challenge of climate change are all higher on his agenda than focusing on America’s engagement with Asia. And this is as it should be. But questions about America’s engagement with Asia will be in the mix of other major issues that receives attention – it can’t be otherwise. Of course the team of top officials Obama ultimately appoints will make an important difference to his Administration’s approach to Asia, but my reading of his approach and instincts suggest some interesting adjustments in emphasis.
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Author: Andrew MacIntyre
Four months ago, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd publicly floated an initiative to develop what he called an Asia Pacific Community, through which leaders of all the key countries in the region would be able to come together. His proposal was greeted mostly with a mixture of quiet puzzlement and outright scepticism. But this is an idea that is not going away. Over the course of the next twelve months or so I expect momentum will be built for taking it further. As this happens, the emphasis in discussion will soon shift from whether or not this initiative will proceed to focus increasingly on the modalities how it will proceed.
Initial public responses to the proposal were wary. By far the most extensive discussion of Mr Rudd’s initiative – and the most sceptical commentary – has come from within Australia itself. This wariness had more to do with Australian domestic politics than the international politics of the Asia-Pacific region, as Mr Rudd’s announcement of the initiative came as the early ‘honeymoon’ phase of the new Labor government passed and complaints were beginning to emerge about ‘initiative overload’ across the policy spectrum and ‘under organisation’ in the Prime Minister’s own office. Read more…
Author: Andrew MacIntyre
Is politics in big democracies necessarily slow and messy? I’ve found myself increasingly thinking so. In the last couple of weeks I’ve been fortunate to have a series of up-close meetings inside the political engine rooms of the United States and India. And for all the many and important differences between the world’s two largest democracies – from culture to constitutions – I have been struck by an underlying similarity. Decision-making in both is fundamentally fragmented.
Forging the necessary agreement to achieve reform involves cutting deals among multiple and diverse players and is inherently difficult. Very occasionally rapid consensus is possible. For instance, moments of great national emergency (as when US politicians united in response to 9/11), or when some powerful self-interest effecting all players is at stake (as when Indian politicians united in response to the threat of uncomfortably revealing campaign disclosure requirements). But mostly the political process is grindingly slow as the numerous tactical deals needed to enact change get squared away, with marginal change or no-change being the default position in both places.
Author: Andrew MacIntyre
Kevin Rudd’s visit to Indonesia generated little media interest in Australia. Much more attention was focused on the more contentious Japan leg of his trip, reflecting the bilateral difficulties that have emerged between his and Yasuo Fukuda’s governments. This is a reversal of the pattern of much of the last 10 years, where Japan visits usually had a routine quality and Indonesia visits were usually related to drama of some sort. There had been little excitement or energy in the Japan-Australia relationship whereas the Indonesia-Australia relationship was driven by a seemingly never-ending series of disasters and worries.
This is about more than the micro-causes of what catches the interest of the mass media or even early diplomatic stumbles on Japan as the young Rudd government has sought to find its feet. At a deeper level this reflects changes in Asia, in particular the quiet transformation of Indonesia and the crystallisation of the geopolitical consequences of the long-term changes in China’s and Japan’s developmental trajectories.