Authors: Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly, ANU

Thaksin Shinawatra — and the multi-pronged political, commercial and social movement that bears his long-term imprimatur — has shown that, when it comes to winning elections, he is Thailand’s best.

His sister, Yingluck, will become Thailand’s first female Prime Minister. Read more…

Authors: Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly, ANU

Thai politics has been out of the news since May 2010’s bloody crackdown on red-shirt protesters in central Bangkok. But any superficial tranquility hides the ongoing campaign by the government to neutralise their opponents and maximise the vote for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party at the election due next year.

The state of emergency declared in May has been wound back, but is still in force in Bangkok and in three strategic provinces outside the capital. Read more…

Authors: Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly

The celebrations by the yellow shirts at Suvanabhumi will be short-lived. The Constitutional Court has struck a blow against the elected government. Somchai has gone. Twelve cabinet members have gone.

But Thai Rak Thai, soon to take on its third incarnation, remains.

The parliament has not been dissolved and the government looks very likely to maintain its majority. The Democrat-except-when-you-can’t-win-an-election-and-then-a-judicial-coup-is-OK Party simply can’t muster the numbers. More blatant judicial or military intervention will be required to remove the government.

After the respectful lull for the king’s birthday, the People’s Alliance for Democracy will be back with new targets and provocations. But their yellow ranks may be thinner. Their international and national reputation is in tatters. Released from the cult-like hot-house atmosphere of Government House and Suvarnabhumi a good number of the ‘aunties with clappers’ may decide that dabbling in terrorism is not for them.

The greatest threat to the PAD is, of course, the formidable political machine that is Thai Rak Thai. Read more…

Authors: Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly, New Mandala

If you do the numbers it is clear that the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leadership has chosen bloodshed over ballots.

The PAD has abandoned electoral politics. With no coherent or credible political platform their only hope is that sufficient blood will be spilt to prompt a military or royal strike against Thailand’s democratically elected government. But the army appears unwilling to act. The queen has publicly shown her support for the PAD, but the king himself has remained silent. And the international community, for its part, is standing firmly by the government.

Make no mistake, the PAD leadership wants blood on the streets and have rushed to turn the imagery of violence to their advantage. Read more…

Author: Andrew Walker, New Mandala

Note: Andrew Walker is Editor of the New Mandala blog, a wonderful resource for anyone interested in South East Asia.

With the brother-in-law of Thaksin Shinawatra now serving as Prime-Minister, Thailand’s democracy is set for another round of turmoil. However, sometimes it can be useful to step back a little from the day-to-day battles of political life. The battles that have convulsed Thailand’s political elites over recent months and years may lead many to conclude that Thailand’s democracy is in crisis. It would be easy to dismiss Thailand as a country where democratic institutions have shallow roots.

But perhaps there are deeper democratic currents that deserve more attention.

Read more…