Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University

North and South Korea held talks in Beijing last week, which means the next episode of the endless diplomatic soap that is the Six-Party Talks is approaching.

The official goal of these talks is North Korean denuclearisation. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

In mid-August, the armoured train of the ‘Dear Leader’, Marshall Kim Jong-il once again crossed the Russian border. This time, he did not venture far: the summit with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took place in the city of Ulan-Ude.

Among other things, the summit produced a statement about a gas pipeline which is to go through the North to reach the South. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

In early June, the governments of China and North Korea declared that they would work to develop two new special economic zones (SEZs).

One is to be situated in the small port city of Raseon, on the eastern coast of North Korea, just 20 kilometres from the nearest crossing to China. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

Until some 10 years ago, defection from North Korea implied that the person’s connections with his or her homeland would be broken for a long time, or perhaps even forever. North Korea was a huge black hole from where almost nothing could get out. But this is not the case anymore.

The number of North Korean defectors in South Korea has increased tremendously. In 2000, there were merely 1,400 North Koreans residing in the ROK. Now, a decade later, their numbers exceed 21,000. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University

During the Cold War the Soviet media informed its readers every year that the economic conditions of the capitalist West had deteriorated even further. If the Soviet media was to be believed the capitalist world was in continuous decline since at least 1900, so by the 1980s it was purported to have living standards similar to the Dark Ages. This was not the case, of course.

Unfortunately, when I read recent reports about the economic situation in North Korea I cannot help but think about my Soviet experience. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

Last year was a dangerous year in Korea. Alas, 2011 might become even worse.

At first glance, this statement might appear excessively pessimistic. After all, in the last few weeks tensions on the Korean Peninsula were decreasing, North Korea suggested negotiations and South Korea also said that talks might be a good idea.

However, the appearances are misleading. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University

For the first time in decades, a new war on the Korean peninsula appears to be a distinct probability. Not only does North Korea’s regime seem determined to escalate its provocations, but the air has also changed in South Korea, where society is in an unusually bellicose mood nowadays.

After North Korean artillery stunned the world by shelling the island of Yeonpyeong last month, killing four and wounding 20, South Korean generals are talking unusually tough. For example, Gen. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

The leak of the classified U.S. diplomatic cables to the website WikiLeaks is, undoubtedly, the major news of the last week. It also might be seen as the greatest diplomatic scandal of all time.

North Korea also received its share of attention after the WikiLeaks scandal. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

Last week, Siegfried Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory was invited to visit the North Korean nuclear research center in Yongbyon. He was shown a uranium enrichment plant whose sophistication and likely output is well in excess of what most experts suspected about the North Korean uranium program. Then on Tuesday, North Korean artillery shelled a South Korean island, inflicting heavy damage.

The world is likely to say that the North Koreans are again acting ‘irrationally.’ But this is not the case — they are a very rational regime, actually the world’s most Machiavellian. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

By its nature, media is supposed to report on important or unusual events. When elections are held, terrorists bomb an airliner or an UFO is spotted over New York, it will make the news. Media outlets usually remain silent when an airliner arrives safely and no Martians are seen walking in Central Park.

But sometimes it is very important when an event does not happen – especially when the reasons for this breach of pattern are not clear. Last week we all were witnesses to such a non-event. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

Sisa Journal, an influential and well-informed South Korean weekly, recently published an interesting statistic. It is well known that some 20,000 North Korean refugees currently reside in South Korea. However, the magazine reports that an estimated 200 of them are not here anymore. Surprisingly, they have moved back to the North.

Who are those returnees? Broadly speaking, from this correspondent’s personal knowledge of North Korean refugees, they belong to three separate categories. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, ANU and Kookmin University

The ‘Sunshine Policy’ of engagement and unilateral concessions is dead. After the Cheonan sinking, all Seoul talks about is sanctions and pressure ― and this position finds some understanding in Washington.

But, it is unlikely that talk of tougher sanctions will actually produce tougher punishment against the North. In all probability the attempts to pressure Pyongyang will be quietly (or not so quietly) sabotaged by China, perhaps with some Russian support.

This is disappointing for many Korean and American hardliners, but they should not be that upset. In the very unlikely case that a truly vigorous sanctions regimen was implemented, it would not succeed in influencing North Korea’s behavior. The peculiarities of the North Korean regime make it essentially immune to sanctions. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin and ANU

So after months of rumours and a couple of false reports, Kim Jong-il finally departed for China. This time his visit produced a palpable irritation in Seoul. Suspicions about Pyongyang’s involvement in the Cheonan disaster are mounting, so some South Korean politicians saw China’s willingness to invite the North Korean leader as a sign of tacit support for Pyongyang’s policy. This led to an outpour of critical statements, which are certain to have no impact on China’s actions, of course.

To start with, China ― in spite of all rhetoric of ‘eternal friendship’ ― is no admirer of Kim Jong-il’s regime and is frequently annoyed by the North Korean antics. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, ANU and Kookmin University

On the evening of March 26, Cheonan, a 1,200 tonne South Korean corvette, was on patrol in coastal waters near the disputed border with North Korea when its stern was suddenly torn away by a powerful explosion.

The warship sank within a few minutes, taking the lives of 46 sailors. The South Korean government initially assumed the warship was attacked by a North Korean submarine and put its military on high alert. Read more…

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University

When considering the future of North and South Korea, we can see that the time has come to raise an alternative elite, the kind that meets the expectations of the modern world and has no relationship with the Kim Jong Il regime.

However, it is impossible to participate in any political activity or gain a great deal of knowledge while inside North Korea. For North Korean intellectuals with a sense of the modern world, the birthplace of the alternative elite is the defector community in South Korea. Read more…