Author: Donald K. Emmerson, Stanford University

Southeast Asian policy makers looking north to the Asian mainland and east across the Pacific see two major assets to their region: China’s biggest-in-the-world economy and America’s best-in-the-world military.

Of course, America is still important to Southeast Asia’s economy: the US and China each imported 10.1 per cent of the total value of ASEAN’s exports in 2009; and accounted for almost identical shares of FDI inflows into ASEAN: 10.8 per cent and 10.4 per cent respectively.

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Author: Donald K. Emmerson, Stanford University

‘Bin Laden Dead: Muslim World Reacts,’ announced ABC-TV. An Afghan rickshaw driver likened him to ‘a hero in the Muslim world.‘ Far from a hero, said a Pakistani professor, ‘he was a problem for the whole Muslim world.’

‘For the Muslim world,’ his death was like the lifting of a curse, wrote the Islamic Society of North America. According to the staff of eCanadaNow, ‘the Muslim world is reeling’ because Bin Laden was buried at sea in violation of the Muslim tradition that allows for that practice only if the deceased actually died there Read more…

Author: Donald K Emmerson, Stanford University

President Barack Obama is currently in the middle of a major trip to the Asia-Pacific region. President Obama’s Asian itinerary excludes China, but that is not to shun Beijing. On the contrary, he will have chances to interact with Chinese leaders at international conferences in South Korea and Japan. And China’s role in regional and world affairs is a major subtext of his journey.

In relation to China, two big questions loom over the nine-day jaunt from India, Indonesia, South Korea to Japan: as a player in foreign affairs, will China become a responsible stakeholder, an irresponsible stick-wielder, or something in between? Read more…

Author: Donald Emmerson, Stanford University

Having so prominently stuck out its maritime tongue at Southeast Asia in its claim to virtually the entire South China Sea, China knew that it might face a backlash in July 2010 when the ASEAN Regional Forum was scheduled to meet in Hanoi. Instead of moderating its position, however, Beijing reportedly contacted all of ASEAN’s member governments and strongly urged them not to broach the subject of the Sea in Hanoi.

The effort failed. At the meeting of the Forum in Hanoi on 23 July, nearly half — 12 — of the heads of the 27 delegations present mentioned the South China Sea.

There can be no doubt, based on accounts by individuals who were in the room, that Foreign Minister Jiechi Yang was angry. Read more…

Author: Donald K. Emmerson, Stanford University

How does a corrupt government stop corruption? What if that government is democratic, and must cultivate the support of political parties that are themselves corrupt? Is fostering reform in such a political economy the equivalent of trying to make snow in hell?

These questions may be overstated, but the dilemmas they convey are all too real. Witness the storm of concern triggered by the recent resignation of the highest-profile reformist in Indonesia, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, from her linchpin job as minister of finance in a country that was ranked the most corrupt and the most democratic in Southeast Asia in 2009. Read more…

Author: Donald Emmerson, Stanford University

Former US Secretary of State Dean Acheson entitled his 1969 memoir Present at the Creation — the creation of a global order from the rubble of World War II. Joining or ignoring the East Asia Summit (EAS), some might say, is a comparably weighty choice — between being present or absent at the creation of an East Asian regional order in the wake of the Cold War.

The choice is conditioned by time and space. The East Asia Summit has been meeting without the United States since 2005. The Obama administration, unable to travel back in time to the Summit’s creation, can only be present or absent at its maturation. Read more…

Author: Donald K. Emmerson, Stanford University

Last Friday’s attack on the Marriott hotel in Jakarta has, for me, a personal aspect, alongside its economic and political repercussions.

This is personal. Jim Castle is a friend of mine. I have known him since we were graduate students in Indonesia in the late 1960s. While I labored in academe he went on to found and grow CastleAsia into what is arguably the most highly regarded private-sector consultancy for informing and interfacing expatriate and domestic investors and managers in Indonesia. Friday mornings he hosts a breakfast gathering of business executives at his favorite hotel, the JW Marriott in the Kuningan district of Jakarta.

Or he did, until the morning of 17 July 2009. On that Friday, shortly before 8 am, a man pulling a suitcase on wheels strolled into the Marriott’s Lobby Lounge, where Jim and his colleagues were meeting, and detonated the contents of his luggage. (We know the bomber was at least outwardly calm from the surveillance videotape of his relaxed walk across the lobby to the restaurant. He wore a business suit, presumably to deflect attention before he blew himself up.) Almost simultaneously, in the Airlangga restaurant at the Ritz Carlton hotel across the street, a confederate destroyed himself, killing or wounding a second set of victims. As of this writing, the toll stands at nine dead (including the killers) and more than fifty injured.

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Author: Donald K. Emmerson, SE Asia Forum, Stanford University

US President Barack Hussein Obama’s speech on 4 June 2009 in Cairo, the second of three planned trips to Muslim-majority countries, was outstanding.

First, it opened daylight between the US and Israel. Israeli settlements on the West Bank are impediments to a two-state solution and a stable peace with Palestine. Obama did not split hairs. He did not distinguish between increments to existing settler populations by birth versus immigration with or without adding a room to an existing house. The United States, he said, does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements. Period.

The American Israel Political Affairs Committee, which advertises itself as America’s pro-Israel lobby, cannot have been pleased to hear that sentence. But without some semblance of independence from Israel, the US cannot be a credible broker between the two sides. It is not necessary to treat the actions of Israeli and Palestinian protagonists as morally equivalent in order to understand that they share responsibility for decades of deadlock. New settlements and the expansion of existing ones merely feed Palestinian suspicions that Israel intends permanently to occupy the West Bank. Nor did Obama’s criticism of Israeli settlements prevent him from also stating: Palestinians must abandon violence. Period.

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Author: Donald K. Emmerson, Southeast Asia Forum, Stanford University

The turmoil in Thailand is about domestic questions: who shall rule the kingdom, and what is the future of democracy there? But the crisis also raises questions for the larger region: who will lead the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and what is the future of democracy in Southeast Asia?

In mid-2008, Thailand began its tenure as ASEAN’s chair. The chair is expected, at a minimum, to host successfully the association’s main events, most notably the ASEAN Summit and multiple other summits between Southeast Asia’s leaders and those of other countries.

Accordingly, Thailand had planned to welcome the heads of ASEAN’s other nine member government plus their counterparts from Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea in a series of meetings in the Thai resort town of Pattaya on April 10-12. (The other nine are Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Brunei, Cambodia and Indonesia.)

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Author: Donald K. Emmerson, Southeast Asia Forum, Stanford University

Jakarta, Indonesia—‘When will he come?’ Again and again in this city I have been asked when US President Barack Hussein will visit Indonesia. I cannot remember a time, since my first trip here in 1967, when Indonesians have looked forward more eagerly to hosting an American president.

No Shoes

Hillary Clinton’s visit in February 2009 not only stoked local hopes of welcoming her boss. It was a big success in its own right. Never before had an American secretary of state traveled to Jakarta so soon after taking office. Long accustomed to being overlooked by Washington, Indonesians were flattered.

Secretary Clinton voiced admiration for Indonesia’s ability to combine Islam with democracy and modernity. Her host liked that. Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda spoke warmly of a new ‘partnership’ with the United States. His guest liked that.

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Author: Donald K. Emmerson, Southeast Asia Forum, Stanford University

There is no doubt that Indonesia’s national legislative election on 9 April showed big gains for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). Yet SBY and his campaign advisers expected more. Had his Democrat Party (DP) won at least 25 per cent of the vote (rather than the estimated actual 20 per cent), the DP would have been entitled, on its own, to nominate him as a presidential candidate, and to nominate someone chosen by him as his vice-presidential candidate.

The DP is now the most successful party in the country, but its lack of an absolute majority in the next legislature will oblige it to engage in coalition politics. Had SBY’s party garnered a larger share of the 9 April vote, he would have been less obliged to entice other parties into his coalition with promises of influence over personnel. Critical upcoming decisions include not only the selection of his running mate but also, prospectively, cabinet ministers in a second Yudhoyono administration should he be re-elected later this year.

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