Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

The year 2011 proved fascinating for Asia, with the region consolidating its role as the essential player driving global economic recovery.

But 2012 promises to be more fraught as domestic politics take command amid new challenges to growth. A number of risks, opportunities and emerging patterns will shape Asia during the next 12 months and beyond. Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

Politicians in landlocked countries aim to foster balance among the larger countries on whom their economies depend for transit.

But with so many obstacles to continental trade and transit in Central Asia, is the effort worth the exertion? Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

Structural impediments hindering US investment in India will grow if, as many economists suspect, India’s growth continues to slow from its restored post-crisis clip of 8–9 per cent a year to something more in the order of 7–7.5 per cent.

In that context, it is worth noting that Indian stocks recently completed their worst quarter since 2008. Read more…

Author: Evan A Feigenbaum, CFR

Can the United States and China cooperate to forestall threats to stability?

A new CFR report, Managing Instability on China’s Periphery, asks this question in the context of fragile states and regions that share borders with China — specifically North Korea, Myanmar, Pakistan and Central Asia. Read more…

Author: Evan A Feigenbaum, CFR

In a recent post, my CFR colleague, Liz Economy asks: ‘What will Vice President Biden find in China?’ I thought I’d try out my own response to this very direct question.

First, Biden will find a China whose rise depends on economic growth but whose growth model is no longer sustainable.  Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

China has unsettled its neighbours with naval displays and diplomatic spats.

But could erstwhile Asian strategic rivals end up as big winners from China’s economic success? Read more…

Author: Evan A Feigenbaum, CFR

For more than a decade, creating multilateral forums has rivalled badminton as the leading indoor sport of Asian academics, think tanks and governments.

And the United States has mostly watched from the sidelines as proposals multiply and Asians organise themselves into an alphabet soup of new multilateral groups. Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

India has concluded a raft of trade agreements — with Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and many others — and it looks set to launch negotiations for many more. But the United States is the forgotten player, in part because Washington has yet to sort out its own trade priorities with India.

First, the good news: US-India trade has grown rapidly, more than doubling from 2004 to around US$66 billion in goods and services trade in 2008. Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, Council on Foreign Relations

I have a new article out in The Washington Quarterly, with a slightly provocative title, ‘Why America No Longer Gets Asia.’

It’s a think piece. And so it probably won’t be 100 per cent persuasive to 100 per cent of its readers in 100 per cent of its aspects. Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, Council on Foreign Relations

There was a rather extraordinary back-and-forth from Hillary Clinton’s budget testimony last week. The Secretary of State told Congress that China is not just competing with the United States around the world but, for all intents and purposes, is eating America’s lunch.

‘Let’s just talk, you know, straight realpolitik,’ Mrs. Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. ‘We are in a competition with China. Take Papua New Guinea: huge energy find … ExxonMobil is producing it. China is in there every day in every way, trying to figure out how it’s going to come in behind us, come under us.’ Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

Central Asia remains fragile and sometimes volatile. Nearly twenty years after the Soviet collapse, ethnic tensions, exacerbated by economic competition, simmer and threaten to destroy the fragile foundations of this multiethnic region.

Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have achieved relative stability. But the explosion of Kyrgyz-Uzbek ethnic clashes around Osh and Jalalabad in June 2010 underscores deeper vulnerabilities and demonstrates just how rapidly violence can escalate in both scope and scale. Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

Chinese president Hu Jintao arrives in Washington this week. And after a year of difficult relations, it’s probably a good time to ask whether the two sides can’t revitalise at least some elements of their elaborate and detailed 2009 Joint Statement.

China has prepped the ground for Hu’s visit by ratcheting back its rhetoric and presenting a friendly face. Read more…

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

As Asia rings in 2011, will it ring in a new economic order too? For two generations, with India a conspicuous exception, much of Asia relied on global demand to power its growth. But as the world economy claws its way back from crisis, others are looking to Asia to step up and lead.

With the glaring exception of Japan, Asian economies are recovering earlier and stronger than nearly all others. And from Bangalore to Beijing, Asians have become a force on the global canvas — trading, building, investing, and innovating. Read more…

Author: Evan Feigenbaum, CFR

Just over a week into the Korea crisis, the constraints on retaliation by Seoul and Washington have become increasingly apparent. Both fret that Pyongyang lacks escalation control and remain deeply anxious about the consequences of a tit-for-tat escalation.

Events of the past week have mostly underscored the basic calculations of the main parties: Read more…

Author: Evan Feigenbaum, CFR

Incidents between North and South Korea in the West Sea are not uncommon. The two countries dispute claims and rights around the Northern Limit Line — a sea border, drawn up by the United Nations Command in 1953, that Pyongyang often violates and does not recognise. But the North Korean artillery attack on Yeonpyeong island on Tuesday is serious indeed. Ahead of the attack, North Korea complained strenuously through North-South military channels about South Korean naval exercises in the vicinity. So this attack, in the wake of those complaints, suggests North Korean premeditation. The incident is also serious because past events have essentially involved incidents at sea, not the targeting of population centres or land.

Why did North Korea do it?

The North Korean system is very opaque. But it’s worth noting at least three possible rationales extrapolated from past North Korean behavior: Read more…