Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
As Asia rings in 2011, will it ring in a new economic order too? For two generations, with India a conspicuous exception, much of Asia relied on global demand to power its growth. But as the world economy claws its way back from crisis, others are looking to Asia to step up and lead.
With the glaring exception of Japan, Asian economies are recovering earlier and stronger than nearly all others. And from Bangalore to Beijing, Asians have become a force on the global canvas — trading, building, investing, and innovating. Read more…
Author: Evan Feigenbaum, CFR
Just over a week into the Korea crisis, the constraints on retaliation by Seoul and Washington have become increasingly apparent. Both fret that Pyongyang lacks escalation control and remain deeply anxious about the consequences of a tit-for-tat escalation.
Events of the past week have mostly underscored the basic calculations of the main parties: Read more…
Author: Evan Feigenbaum, CFR
Incidents between North and South Korea in the West Sea are not uncommon. The two countries dispute claims and rights around the Northern Limit Line — a sea border, drawn up by the United Nations Command in 1953, that Pyongyang often violates and does not recognise. But the North Korean artillery attack on Yeonpyeong island on Tuesday is serious indeed. Ahead of the attack, North Korea complained strenuously through North-South military channels about South Korean naval exercises in the vicinity. So this attack, in the wake of those complaints, suggests North Korean premeditation. The incident is also serious because past events have essentially involved incidents at sea, not the targeting of population centres or land.
Why did North Korea do it?
The North Korean system is very opaque. But it’s worth noting at least three possible rationales extrapolated from past North Korean behavior: Read more…
Author: Evan Feigenbaum, CFR
With President Obama having visited New Delhi earlier this month, it seems like a good time to ask why Washington and New Delhi remain so burdened, even imprisoned, by continental preoccupations.
To Americans, India can be a real jumble of contradictions. It is a maritime nation—strategically situated near key chokepoints—but with a continental strategic tradition. It is a nation of illustrious mercantile traditions but for decades walled off large swaths of its economy. Much has changed, principally because rapid economic growth has allowed India to break from the confining shackles of South Asia. India is again an Asian player, better integrated into the East Asian economic system. Read more…
Author: Evan Feigenbaum, Council on Foreign Relations.
In my ‘other’ life—as head of the Asia practice group at a political risk consulting firm—I’ve learned that at least some players in the financial markets tend to think vertically about trade conflict. In this view, trade tensions go up. Trade tensions go down. Indeed, trade tensions are pretty cyclical. And electoral cycles have a lot to do with the timing of trade-related tensions.
But a ‘vertical’ paradigm probably won’t apply to US-China trade relations much longer. I think it’s time we shifted to a more ‘linear’ view. In other words, US-China trade conflict isn’t going to go down. It’s going to straightline forward. But US-China trade tensions are, I think, going to be broadly manageable. Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
Now that India has a seat at many of the top tables of international relations, why is America’s dialogue with India less global in scope than with any major power, even China?
The good news, I think, is that the two sides have established some new dialogues in recent months, including a timely and important exchange on East Asia and China. But the ultimate test won’t be how many meetings the two governments hold but whether they turn common interests into complementary policies around the world. Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
As its profile in East Asia rises, India would do well to heed America’s recent experience in a changing Asia. Economics, not security, still defines the essential strategic reality of Asia today: China is fast becoming the central player in a new economic regionalism. The United States and India are each enhancing their political and security profiles—albeit for different reasons and in different ways. Yet both risk being left out as Asian economic integration tightens.
The United States has endured decades of loose talk about American ‘decline’ in Asia. But in the months since North Korea torpedoed a South Korean naval corvette in March, America’s security role has been strongly reinforced. Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
Is there a more interesting place these days than the South China Sea? It’s the locus of a full-contact diplomatic spat between Washington and Beijing. It’s an arena for some nasty finger-pointing between Beijing and Hanoi. It’s an issue that may well destabilise relations between Beijing and Jakarta. And it’s the issue that somehow managed to make Asia’s most lethargic regional organisation—the ASEAN Regional Forum—a bit more interesting at last month’s ministerial in Hanoi.
But here’s something else that strikes me about the South China Sea: It’s going to be an arena that tests some important assumptions about China’s rise. Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
So the US is going to join the East Asia Summit (EAS) … and you can hear the cheers all the way to Hanoi.
But why exactly are they cheering? Here are a few of the arguments:
(1) The US has been ‘missing in action’ in Asian institution-building; so joining EAS ‘puts the US firmly into the picture.’ Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
India’s tourist promotion slogan is ‘Incredible India!‘ And there’s a lot about that country that’s pretty incredible.
But three stories over the past week caught my attention. They show three (very) different sides of India’s incredible, but very complicated, growth story.
Here’s the first story that caught my attention: Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
It’s been a long and frustrating (and bloody exhausting … ) seventeen months for American trade policy. But on the margins of last month’s G20 summit, President Obama at last committed to complete the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS).
Seoul hosts the next G20 summit in November. So the move—and Obama’s timing—makes a lot of sense. Indeed, as my friend Phil Levy puts it, ‘the failure to move on KORUS was calling into question US credibility on trade in general and US standing in Asia in particular. Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
I have a Ph.D. in Chinese politics—which means I have an abiding faith in the idea that, yes, China actually does have politics. That’s always been true, even in the authoritarian depths of the Mao Zedong era. And it’s been true in nearly every aspect of Chinese life, including atop the commanding heights of the economy.
Ten years ago, I wrote a book about how contending networks of generals and technicians fought pitched battles in China’s defense industry at the height of the Mao era. They fought over everything from budgets to weapons designs to procurement priorities to whether China should invest in basic or applied research. Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
Here’s the thing about trade policy: the United States can’t be a leader in Asia without one. That was true in the 19th century, as fast-sailing clipper ships from Salem to San Francisco vaulted America into a role in Asia, spanning the trade from China to India. It was true in the 20th century, from the Open Door through the Cold War. And it remains very true today.
So it’s worth taking a look at a pair of articles in today’s Washington Post. On the cover, the Post’s Howard Schneider notes that America is losing its edge in Asia. Read more…
Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR
On Sunday, China and India enlarged their seats at the top table of international relations. As part of a general increase in capital, rich countries agreed to give up 3.1 percentage points of voting shares in the World Bank and to give China, India, and other emerging economies greater voting power. The Bretton Woods table is hardly the only one that matters in international relations. But the agreement makes China the number three shareholder in the Bank, while India—at number seven—now has greater voting power than Russia, Canada, Australia, Italy, and Saudi Arabia. That’s an arresting fact. And when you combine it with the decision taken at last year’s Pittsburgh G20 meeting to supplant the G8 with the more inclusive G20, the trendline becomes clearer still. China and India are sitting at the top table.
The choices this raises for China are a subject for another occasion. Read more…
