Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
The economic rise of Asia brings with it an unprecedented growth in energy use.
How that growth in energy demand will be met depends on technology development and policy for climate change and energy security. These choices will profoundly affect the prospects of energy exporters such as Australia. Read more…
Authors: Matthew Dornan and Frank Jotzo, ANU
High oil prices are disproportionately affecting Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Pacific, while renewable energy could replace oil used for power generation and help reduce the risk of cost blowouts.
In Fiji, the oil import bill was around 14 per cent of GDP in 2010 and is likely to be higher this year, with oil prices again remaining above US$100 a barrel. Read more…
Authors: Stephen Howes and Frank Jotzo, ANU
Global climate policy reached a turning point at the 2009 Copenhagen conference.
Expectations of a binding global climate treaty were dashed; instead, all major countries made unilateral pledges to cut or restrain their greenhouse gas emissions. In reality, that was probably a more significant outcome than a binding, but weak, agreement — what counts is what countries do, not what they sign up to. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
Indonesia is among the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, and it has committed to cut its carbon footprint.
Can Indonesia achieve its goals, what is its role in the region, and how could developed countries assist? Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
Australia is going to put in place carbon pricing at a level on par with the European Union with a design that could make it a solid foundation for long term policy.
It took five years of political struggle to get to this point, and several leaders of government and opposition lost their jobs in the process. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
The last two years have seen economic upheaval in the West, and climate change negotiations move along rather different tracks than most anticipated before the 2009 Copenhagen conference.
What are the implications for global climate policy, the Asia Pacific region and Australia? New papers by Australia’s Garnaut Climate Change Review Update released last week attempt to give some answers. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
Climate change policy is alive again in Australia. Prime Minister Gillard has committed to introduce a carbon price during the current term of government. A Multi-Party Committee on Climate Change is at work, and an update to the Garnaut Review takes a fresh look at some of the tough issues facing the world and Australia in getting good climate policy off the ground.
Getting carbon pricing off the ground may seem a tall order after the attempt of the previous government under Kevin Rudd to introduce emissions trading failed among a collapsed deal with the opposition (whose leader Malcolm Turnbull was deposed over the issue), considering that the current government’s needs rely on votes by Independents and the Greens to get any legislation through Parliament, and in the context of setbacks in US climate policy and widespread (if largely misplaced) disappointment with the international climate negotiations. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo and Jonathan Pickering, ANU
Under the Copenhagen Climate Accord, developed countries pledged to mobilise funds of US$30 billion between 2010 and 2012, and US$100 billion a year in climate finance by 2020, to support climate change action in developing countries. This compares to global Official Development Assistance (ODA) in 2009 of around US$120 billion, and some assessments indicating needs could be considerably higher. One of the big questions is how to raise the money. The UN High-level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing (AGF) last Friday reported on the issue, concluding that meeting the $100 billion a year goal is ‘challenging but feasible’.
The AGF sensibly supports using a mix of revenues to meet the goal rather than a single instrument. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
The Copenhagen climate conference and subsequent developments have made it clear that a legally binding international climate agreement is out of reach for the time being. But the Copenhagen Accord outcome delivered on something that until then seemed unattainable: unilateral commitments by all major emitters to cut or constrain their greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade.
Whether this is a viable basis for global climate policy in the medium term depends on whether countries will follow through with domestic policies for implementation, and that in turn depends on whether countries’ targets are seen to be mutually compatible in their ambition. Reassurance that any one country is not going it alone is particularly important as we move into a ‘bottom-up’ approach to international climate policy, as Stephen Howes argued is inevitable.
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
If the government is re-elected, can it deliver a carbon price for Australia? Prime Minister Julia Gillard has flagged that a consensus about climate action needs to be reached first. A broad community consensus of this kind existed about two years ago, then it eroded amid a global campaign against the science of climate change, disappointment about Copenhagen, confusion about emissions trading, and political mud-slinging. But there is a clear way forward.
The temptation for the Gillard government might be to announce some climate projects before the election, and go slow on the issue after the election. But that would fail the country on a long-term issue that simply will not go away, and would guarantee political pain if the Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate, as is highly likely. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
China has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its economy (tonnes of CO2 per yuan) by 40-45 per cent from 2005 to 2020. It seems that the Chinese government is serious about this target, and it is fair to expect that China will strive to meet the targeted reductions. In fact, the expectation among observers in Beijing is that the 12th Five Year Plan, which is under development now, will contain a 2015 emissions intensity target as a half-way mark. But how will China go about trying to meet it?
First up, it is important to note that effort will be needed to achieve the target. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo
China has been portrayed as the Copenhagen spoiler for its hard stance in the finale of the UN climate negotiations. China only reluctantly agreed to some transparency on emissions accounting, reportedly insisted on numbers for emissions targets being taken out of the Copenhagen Accord, and demonstrated its strength in various ways that did not please some (mainly Western) countries.
But what really matters is what commitments it made for emissions reductions and the policies to implement them. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU and Salim Mazouz, Ecoperspectives
With the climate negotiations getting to the pointy end, there is attention not just on headline commitments, but on what countries might in fact do at home to reign in their greenhouse gas emissions.
Indonesia is in Copenhagen with an announced target of reducing emissions by between 26 per cent and 41 per cent at 2020, compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Behind the scenes, serious work is going on to identify policy approaches that can deliver on this goal.
Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance this week released a Green Paper on Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategies for Climate Change Mitigation in Indonesia. Read more…
Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU
At the Pittsburgh G20 meeting, Indonesia’s President Yudhoyono (SBY) reportedly said that Indonesia had decided on a national climate change action plan ‘that will reduce our emissions by 26 per cent by 2020 from BAU (Business As Usual)’, and by up to 41 per cent with international support.
This would be a substantial reduction, including in global terms.
Author: Frank Jotzo
The US House of Representatives has passed the Waxman-Markey bill, or American Clean Energy and Security Act. The bill mandates national emissions reductions using economy-wide emissions trading and various other policy measures. The bill is now entering the Senate process, and though the hurdles there are much higher than in the House, America could have in place comprehensive and not unambitious carbon emissions control in the near future. It would be a momentous change for the US, and it would catalyse action elsewhere.