Author: Gerald Curtis, Columbia University

The Japanese Earthquake and tsunami left more than 25,000 people dead or missing. It damaged or destroyed 125,000 buildings, and spread an estimated 27 million tons of debris over a wide expanse of the northeast Pacific coast.

The media and the political opposition have been unrelenting in their criticism of Prime Minister Kan. Less than 20 per cent of the public now support the prime minister. More than 70 per cent disapprove of the way he has dealt with the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake Disaster, and would like to see him resign before the end of August. But the public entertains no illusions that the political situation will improve with Kan’s resignation. With no political leader having captured the public’s imagination, support for the DPJ, LDP and other parties is in free-fall. Read more…

Author: Gerald Curtis, Columbia University

Enthusiasm among the Japanese for the Democratic Party of Japan ran high when it came to power last autumn. People were stunned by cabinet ministers speaking their own words rather than reading from scripts prepared by bureaucrats. They believed it when DPJ leaders said the prime minister and cabinet would decide policy rather than continue the practice of mostly rubber-stamping decisions made by civil servants. It seemed to many that Japan was going to have a new kind of politics – more open and responsive to average citizens than to the special interests that had captured the Liberal Democratic Party.

Eight months later hope has turned to disappointment. Read more…

Author: Gerald Curtis, Columbia University

The Obama administration’s foreign policy in East Asia has been characterized more by continuity than by change, building on policies of previous administrations that have served U.S. interests well. But there is a danger that, forced by events to focus attention on the world’s hot spots, continuity will shade into complacency, leaving the administration to constantly try to catch up with developments in an East Asia that is rapidly changing.

Managing trilateral relations among the U.S., China, and Japan requires a multi-level approach. Each of these countries is in a transformative period that is changing the dynamics of their interaction. Bilateral relationships will remain central. It is unrealistic and unwise, however, to think of the U.S.-China bilateral relationship as comprising a G-2 for dealing with regional and global issues. The notion of a G-2 exaggerates China’s strengths. It is not in the interests of the U.S. to encourage China to believe that it has more power to influence global affairs than it actually possesses. Being the largest overseas purchaser of U.S. Treasury notes gives China considerable leverage in relations with the U.S. But one should not underestimate the mutual hostage quality that results from China being the largest holder of U.S. bonds, which has a kind of economic Mutually Assured Destruction character to it.

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Author: Gerald Curtis

Not only is Japan’s economy contracting at least twice as fast as its peers, with data on Monday showing the worst quarterly performance for a third of a century, but Japanese politics also seem about to implode.

The standing of Taro Aso, prime minister, in the opinion polls is in free fall. His statement last week that he had opposed privatising the country’s huge postal savings system when he served in the government of Junichiro Koizumi – a comment that, like so many others he has made, he subsequently backed away from – appeared to be more than his predecessor but two could take. Read more…