Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

Southeast Asia has seen its fair share of authoritarian leaders. Malaysia’s Dr. Mahathir Mohamed is one who still endures, albeit now on the sidelines. Ascending to the premiership of Malaysia in July 1981, and ruling until his forced retirement in October 2003, he reigned in impressive fashion.

Among the many titles that were bestowed on this poor boy from a Malaysian backwater were ‘respected Muslim’, ‘Third World leader’, and ‘spokesman for developing nations’. Within the country, as overseas, he was both loathed and loved. In his quest to transform Malaysia into a ‘developed nation’ he used all possible means, both domestic and external, to achieve his grand vision. Seven years since his departure, what has been his legacy? Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

Historically, Barisan Nasional’s (BN’s) fiscal management has failed in two related ways.  They have displayed no fiscal discipline, and their public service expenditure has been highly inefficient and corrupt. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib’s decision to introduce a Goods and Services Tax (GST) is therefore premature. Before introducing a GST, Najib must first demonstrate to the Rakyat that he has the ability to reform BN by reining in fiscal deficits.

A historic lack of fiscal discipline

There are two conventional approaches to fiscal policy: a balanced budget approach, where the government spends only what it earns or a counter-cyclical approach, where the government accumulates surpluses during high growth periods to use as deficit spending during recessionary periods. Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

The persistent decline in Malaysia’s economic performance since the East Asian Financial Crisis (EAFC) of 1997/98 and the government’s mishandling of the global shocks that preceded the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) were a key reason for the ‘political tsunami’ that hit Barisan Nasional (BN) at the 12th General Election (12GE) on 8th March, 2008. Two years on the economy remains in the mud due to a sluggish global economy, ineffective stimulus plans to address the GFC and most importantly, a lack of political will to put through bold reforms to get the economy back on track.

Like many economies in East Asia, Malaysia evaded the direct impact of the sub-prime crisis but was caught in the after effects – its main export markets collapsed, suffering the worst decline since the EAFC. Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

On November 9, Mr. Najib Razak, Malaysia’s Prime Minister and Finance Minister, announced at the Multimedia Super Corridor implementation council meeting that Malaysia was aiming for an average annual GDP grow rate of nine per cent until 2020. Realising later that the numbers were absurd, the government went into damage control mode.

Immediately, the local media edited the premier’s statement to six per cent. The next day, the Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department, in charge of the Economic Planning Unit, Read more…

Author: Greg Lopez, ANU

The reforms in the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) may be a step in the right direction. Already, there are detractors suggesting that the reforms are meaningless as corruption is entrenched in Malaysia. What is more serious is Malaysia’s democratic deficit which undermines the citizens’ basic democratic right to choose their representatives without fear.

Malaysia is a dysfunctional democracy. The opposition coalition — Pakatan Rakyat (PR Peoples/Citizens Coalition) is under siege from the ruling party Read more…

Author: Siaan Ansori and Greg Lopez, ANU

Some 20,000 or so Malaysians met the full force of Prime Minister Najib’s security forces when they demonstrated peacefully on August 1 in Kuala Lumpur against the repressive Internal Security Act (ISA), a draconian law used by the Malaysian Government to quell the Communist insurgents after the Malayan Emergency. By Malaysian standards, this was a mammoth demonstration; not only in size but also in the statement it made, considering the extent to which Mr Najib had gone to stop it. The government’s response to the demonstration casts further doubt on Mr Najib’s commitment to democratic reform.

Since coming into power on April 3, 2009, Mr Najib has portrayed himself as a reformer. He released 13 ISA detainees, including key HINDRAF leaders, and promised that he would amend the ISA. In addition, he also implemented some populist reform measures in the economic sphere. Although these changes raises Mr Najib’s popularity within the electorate, analysts have observed that Najib’s strategy mimics UMNO’s tried and tested formula of quick political wins which are long on form and short on substance.

Read more…

Authors: Siaan Ansori and Gregore Lopez, ANU

Malaysia’s new Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’ s first 100 days have been similar to the first 100 days of his predecessors—long on form, short on substance. His policies thus far do not address the root causes of Malaysian problems and continue to reflect patronage, religion and race-based politics with the overarching ideology of ‘Ketuanan Melayu (Malay supremacy)’ firmly entrenched.

Najib, who took office on April 3, came to power in at the worst of times. Real GDP contracted by 6.2 per cent (year on year) in the first quarter of 2009, Malaysia’s worst performance since the fourth quarter of 1998, when the economy shrank by 11.2 per cent during the height of the Asian financial crisis. 2008 also saw the weakest growth in six years and there is no sign of improvement for 2009, confirming the long term trends that Malaysia is fast losing its competitiveness. Najib also came in as the most unpopular Prime Minister in Malaysian history.

Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd understands authoritarian regimes well. In his brief stop-over in Kuala Lumpur, with Foreign Minister, Stephen Smith, he praised Malaysia’s energetic efforts to curb human trafficking.

This was despite the fact that Malaysia was just downgraded to Tier 3 from Tier 2 in the Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report 2009 by the U.S. Department of State. The TIP Report ranks countries based on their level of compliance on established minimum standards to curb human trafficking. More worrying was the number of credible reports of Malaysian immigration authority’s involvement in the trafficking of refugees.

Rudd knows that his efforts to promote the Asia Pacific Community will be severely undermined, if he were to interfere in the ‘domestic affairs’ of another sovereign nation, especially in Malaysia. During the Mahathir era, Malaysia had a tumultuous relationship with Australia politically despite strong trade and cultural relationships.

Read more…

Authors: Hal Hill and Greg Lopez

Chaos in Thailand, a controversial new PM in Malaysia, uncertainty in the Philippines, ASEAN as an institution searching for a role in the crisis. Hal Hill and Gregore Lopez ask: how serious is the crisis in Southeast Asia?

Even though the recent East Asian Summit was aborted in dramatic circumstances, this initiative underlines the diplomatic clout of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN. Put bluntly, Australia would not have a seat at this table if ASEAN had not acquiesced. ASEAN will also be critical to the success of Prime Minister Rudd’s proposed Asia Pacific Community.

These countries are also hugely significant economically and socially to Australia. For example, they are a larger share of our trade, our immigrants, our international student community, our overseas travel destinations and our aid program than is the case for any other OECD member.

Se we have a vital stake in their progress and, in particular, how well they are currently managing during the global financial crisis.

Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

Najib Tun Razak was sworn in as Malaysia’s sixth Prime Minister on the 3rd of April 2009. He takes over the Prime Ministership of Malaysia at a critical juncture in the history of his party.

Globally speaking, Malaysia is suffering under the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Domestically, Najib’s ruling party, the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) and the coalition that it leads, Barisan Nasional (BN), are at their lowest ebb, suffering a backlash from citizens fed up with the blatant abuse of power from a regime that has ruled Malaysia since independence.

Najib realises that party reform is critical for his and UMNO’s survival. He watched how Ahmad Badawi turned from ‘party hero’, leading UMNO and BN to a resounding victory in the 11th general election in 2004, into a ‘failed leader’ in the 12th general elections, where the citizens punished him for squandering their mandate and not instituting long-needed reforms. Badawi has been removed.

Najib knows that he will face the same consequences if he does not deliver victory for UMNO. For all its promises of loyalty, and the feudal mentality that pervades it, UMNO is ultimately driven by money and power. Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez

Can anyone ‘out-devil’ the devil? In Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim has learnt the hard way that it is impossible to outmanoeuvre Barisan Nasional (BN/National Front), Malaysia’s long-standing regime, using unethical measures. Since 8 March, 2008, BN has been at its weakest when facing the ‘Rakyat’ (citizens) at the electoral ballot but strongest when using dubious practices. The Pakatan Rakyat(PR/Citizens Alliance)-led state government in Perak lasted barely a year, brought down through the use of dubious tactics by BN. This episode must be a lesson for Anwar to desist immediately with the strategy of forming government through defection and return to higher democratic principles. Governments are best formed through elections and not defections.

The story of the Perak power grab is a remarkable one. Two PKR legislators who were charged for corruption in August 2008 – procuring monetary and sexual favours in return for approving a building project – went missing for five days.

Rumour has it that, during those five days pressure was brought on the duo (offered money in addition to having their charges dropped) to defect to BN. This was preceded by the defection of an UMNO legislator to PKR who has since rejoined UMNO. More surprising was the news that a 20 year DAP member and Deputy Speaker of the House also defected.

Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

Malaysia’s main challenge in 2009 will not be the global financial meltdown. Rather, it will be continued grandstanding between the ruling coalition and, since March 8th 2008, a much stronger opposition. The aftermath of March 8th, 2008 produced a lame duck Prime Minister with a lame duck government. The Prime Minister, Ahmad Badawi, instead of gracefully resigning for leading the United Front (Barisan Nasional) to its worst ever electoral results, stubbornly held on to the party presidency and Prime Ministership of the country.

However, members from within his party (United Malay National Organisation – UMNO) and the United Front were calling for his resignation. Simultaneously, the newly constituted opposition coalition – The Peoples Coalition (Pakatan Rakyat) led by the charismatic Anwar Ibrahim, was threatening to overthrow the ruling government through mass defection.

Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

Last year was a watershed in Malaysian politics. After 50 years of comfortably winning elections, the twelfth general elections saw the Barisan Nasional (National Front/BN) caned by the normally docile Malaysian electorate. The BN, a coalition of 14 mostly racially-based parties, commandeered by the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO), still won comfortably but for the first time in its history, lost control of five state governments on the Peninsula and was denied the psychological two-thirds majority in Parliament required to change the constitution when Pakatan Rakyat (The Peoples Coalition), led by Anwar Ibrahim, won 82 out of the 222 parliamentary seats.

Malaysia is often paraded as a model developing economy. By most internationally accepted measures, Malaysia has done well. It is touted as a moderate Muslim majority nation that has successfully managed to address issues related to communist insurgency, Islamic fundamentalism and racial tensions in addition to conventional economic development challenges. Read more…

Author: Greg Lopez

The main factor driving Anwar Ibrahim to topple Barisan Nasional (BN/United Front) is his belief that the window of opportunity will cease to exist in the very near future. Malaysia’s short history has demonstrated that BN is very resilient and adept at breaking down any form of opposition – both with carrots and through the use of big sticks.

Other than the social democrats – the Democratic Action Party (DAP), which was formed when Singapore and the Peoples Action Party (PAP) was expelled from Malaysia and the Islamist Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS/Pan Malaysian Islamic Party) – no other party has had the staying power required in the unrewarding and ridiculed role of Opposition. All forms of coalition arrangement have been successfully demolished by the ruling party leaving it as the only legitimate and credible representative of the people.
Read more…

Author: Gregore Lopez, ANU

Mr Anwar Ibrahim, returns to Parliament today (28 August 2008) as Opposition Leader, 10 years after he was sacked as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Malaysia and heir apparent to the ‘throne’ of Dr Mahathir.

In many ways, the sacking of Anwar was probably the single most important event in the process of Malaysia becoming a mature democracy. For once, Malaysians had ‘a shared history’ – a story or a myth that brought Malaysians together.

Prior to Anwar Ibrahim’s sacking this common myth was May 13th – the race riot that was used over and over by the ruling Barisan Nasional (United Front) to blackmail Malaysians into submission. This myth was perpetuated by the successful developmentist state. Credit, no doubt must be given to Barisan Nasional, of which Anwar Ibrahim was part and parcel of for a good 14 years, for delivering on economic growth, peace and stability (read here). Read more…