Author: Hal Hill, ANU
Malaysia is one of the developing world’s great success stories. Few countries outside of East Asia can match its development record. Since its independence over 53 years ago per capita incomes have risen more than eight-fold, and absolute poverty has been all but eliminated.
But it currently faces three key, interrelated challenges, some generic to upper middle income developing countries, others specific to Malaysia itself.
The first, how to graduate to the rich-country club, has been clearly articulated by the country’s Prime Minister, Tun Najib: ‘We are now at a critical juncture, either to remain trapped in a middle-income group or advance to a high-income economy … We now have to shift to a new economic model based on innovation, creativity and high value added activities.’
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Author: Hal Hill, Jayant Menon and Chan Sophal
The charming riverside capital of Phnom Penh, home to about 1.5 million inhabitants, has seen a lot in its turbulent history. But nothing arguably is on the scale of its first sky-scraper, the 42-floor ‘Gold Tower’ now nearing completion, not to mention the university and bank complexes mushrooming throughout this ancient city.
This changing physical landscape reflects broader developments in the country, which has been experiencing rapid economic growth – the sixth fastest in the world in the decade to 2007 – for the first time in its history. Read more…
Author: Hal Hill, ANU
When Prime Minister Rudd talks with President Yudhoyono this week, they will be able to reflect on what a fickle, mean and unpredictable business politics is.
Four months ago, the mood in Indonesia was extremely positive: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (universally known as SBY) had been installed for a historic second term. He had chosen Dr Boediono, the country’s most respected technocrat, as his vice president. His Democrat Party had emerged as a major force in the DPR, the country’s parliament. Read more…
Author: Hal Hill, ANU
Few countries have matched Malaysia’s stellar record of development over the last several decades: Annual GDP growth has averaged around 6.5 per cent since independence in 1957, and the nation of 27 million people now boasts the world’s 31st largest economy. But no discussion of this Southeast Asian nation’s economy would be complete without due attention to Mahathir bin Mohamad, who held the reins for 22 years from 1981 to 2003.
Dr. Mahathir’s personal story, as recounted in Barry Wain’s ‘Malaysian Maverick,’ tracks the country’s broader post-war history. Read more…
Author: Hal Hill and Chris Manning, ANU
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (universally known as SBY) announced the cabinet for his second five-year term shortly after his inauguration on October 20. Its composition and quality provide one of the best indications of the president’s policy priorities, as well as his political strategy.
SBY’s Democrat Party emerged as the major, though minority, party at the April parliamentary polls, while he had a resounding victory in the July presidential election. He is therefore in a much stronger position than in 2004. In May, he made a surprising choice of Dr Boediono as his vice presidential running mate, a ‘non-politician’, a respected economic policy maker (and also an Australian graduate). Read more…
Author: Hal Hill
One of the most durable and important elements in the Australia-Indonesia relationship is the large number of Indonesians who have studied in our universities. In Indonesia, Australia offers the largest number of graduate-level scholarships for study abroad, and it also hosts the largest number of private Indonesian university students studying abroad.
More so than almost any other country in Southeast Asia, these graduates now increasingly occupy senior positions in government, business, universities and civil society. It is no exaggeration to say that it is probably the single most important dynamic in the bilateral relationship. At elite levels in Indonesia, we are probably now better understood than any other western nation. And there is momentum in that many of the earlier Australian graduates send their children here to study.
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Author: Hal Hill, ANU
Indonesians go to the polls again this week.
It is almost certain that the incumbent, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (universally known as SBY), will be re-elected in this week’s presidential elections, together with his Australian educated running mate Boediono, if not in this round then in the September run-off.
There has been little international commentary on the campaign in this, the world’s third most populous democracy. This partly reflects the lack of fireworks, and low-key, scripted debates centred mainly on personalities rather than policies.
But it also reflects the country’s remarkably swift transition from authoritarian to democratic rule. Few outsiders appreciate that, notwithstanding the global financial crisis, these are comparatively good times for Indonesia. Read more…
Authors: Hal Hill and Greg Lopez
Chaos in Thailand, a controversial new PM in Malaysia, uncertainty in the Philippines, ASEAN as an institution searching for a role in the crisis. Hal Hill and Gregore Lopez ask: how serious is the crisis in Southeast Asia?
Even though the recent East Asian Summit was aborted in dramatic circumstances, this initiative underlines the diplomatic clout of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN. Put bluntly, Australia would not have a seat at this table if ASEAN had not acquiesced. ASEAN will also be critical to the success of Prime Minister Rudd’s proposed Asia Pacific Community.
These countries are also hugely significant economically and socially to Australia. For example, they are a larger share of our trade, our immigrants, our international student community, our overseas travel destinations and our aid program than is the case for any other OECD member.
Se we have a vital stake in their progress and, in particular, how well they are currently managing during the global financial crisis.
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Author: Hal Hill
Southeast Asia was at the epicenter of the last major Asian economic crisis in 1997-98, which originated in Thailand and spread quickly to its neighbours.
In Indonesia it resulted in the collapse of the seemingly impregnable Soeharto regime, followed by a rapid and largely successful transition to democracy. Indirectly, the crisis resulted in the rise to power of Thaksin, and with it an entirely new era in Thai politics. Malaysia too was shaken by these events following the infamous Anwar Ibrahim affair.
The crisis also led to apparently permanently lower growth trajectories in three of the region’s larger economies, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. A decade earlier, a similar set of events – a crisis overturning a deeply entrenched authoritarian regime – occurred in the Philippines.
What’s in store this time round? Will the global financial crisis permanently alter the region’s political economy and development dynamics? Does it signal the end of the so-called ‘East Asian model’, or at least a substantial modification of it? And what about the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN?
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