Author: Hitoshi Tanaka, Japan Center for International Exchange

Just a few weeks after taking office in early September, Japan’s new prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, had his first meeting with US President Barack Obama in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

It was widely reported that first and foremost on the agenda for this meeting was the relocation of the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, with President Obama delivering a stern message that the time has come for results. Read more…

Author: Hitoshi Tanaka, Japan Center for International Exchange

The balance of power in East Asia is shifting, presenting new risks to regional stability.

In order to mitigate these risks and maintain and strengthen regional peace, stability, and prosperity, it is critical that regional cooperation be consolidated. Read more…

Author: Hitoshi Tanaka, Japan Center for International Exchange

North Korea’s calculated military provocations over the past year and its continued nuclear development have raised tensions on the peninsula to dangerously high levels.

Giving extra urgency to this already dangerous scenario is the 2012 problem: next year we will see presidential elections in South Korea and the United States and a leadership change in China. Read more…

Author: Hitoshi Tanaka, JCIE

Over the past several years, and especially since September’s historic change of government in Japan, it has become clear that there is a need to reassess the US-Japan alliance to ensure that it is equipped to face the challenges of the 21st century. There have been changes in Japan that are now reflected in domestic politics, but we cannot ignore the fact that there have been important changes in the regional context as well. China’s rise is apparent to everyone, and there is now a consensus view that East Asia is becoming an engine of growth whose dynamism is benefiting the world.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has spoken frequently of two lofty concepts that arise out of a recognition that the regional context has changed: the desirability of forging an ‘East Asian community’ and the need to have a more equal US-Japan relationship. What is missing in this talk, however, is a clear articulation of how to link the goals of a strong and more balanced US-Japan relationship with a vision of regional community that is equipped to deal with the changes unfolding before us. Although some observers may see these aims as inconsistent or even mutually exclusive, they can be complementary. In fact, effectively coordinating them should be the focus of intense and forward-looking discussions between Japan and the United States. Read more…

Author: Hitoshi Tanaka, JCIE

Despite widespread predictions of a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) defeat, the result of the August 30 general election in Japan was nevertheless stunning. Not only is the LDP no longer the dominant party in the Diet for the first time since the party’s establishment in 1955, its seat total in the Lower House plunged from 300 (out of a total of 480) before the election to 119 after. In stark contrast, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)—the perennial opposition party in the Lower House—raised its presence there by a remarkable 191 seats, for a total of 308. Together with its plurality (109 of 242 seats) in the Upper House, this means that the DPJ now controls 417 (or roughly 58 percent) of 722 seats in the Diet. This paved the way for DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama to be voted in as Prime Minister on September 16. Such a dramatic change in the makeup of the government after five decades of essentially single-party rule will undoubtedly have important implications for Japan’s domestic politics and foreign policy.

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Author: Hitoshi Tanaka, JCIE

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has posed a clear danger to peace and stability in East Asia for the past two decades. North Korea’s recent acts, including its July 2006 missile tests, October 2006 and May 2009 nuclear tests, and April 2009 ‘satellite launch,’ coupled with its insistence that it would never return to the Six-Party Talks, clearly demonstrate that circumstances have now devolved into a crisis.

The current North Korea nuclear crisis is significantly more serious than that which occurred in 1994. Not only is North Korea’s nuclear program now far more advanced, its two nuclear tests represent clear violations of its past commitments to denuclearize. There is a narrow—and rapidly closing—window of opportunity in which the international community has a chance to prevent North Korea from becoming a nuclear state. Beyond the obvious harmful effect that a nuclear-armed North Korea would have on regional stability, the international community’s failure to stop its nuclear program would also deal a significant blow to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime and potentially encourage other states to follow North Korea’s example. The damage would be particularly pronounced in the wake of US President Barack Obama’s celebrated speech in Prague this past April in which he called for ‘a world without nuclear weapons.’

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Author: Hitoshi Tanaka, JCIE

Nearly six decades after its creation, the US-Japan alliance once again stands at a crossroads. The relative decline of US global influence, the gradual redistribution of power in East Asia, and the global economic crisis have led pundits on both sides of the Pacific to question the alliance’s continued viability and relevance. It is incumbent upon Japanese leaders to sit down with the Obama administration to discuss how the US-Japan partnership should evolve to tackle existing challenges and map out a long-term vision for the alliance’s future.

Going forward, the broad objectives of the alliance should be to maximize opportunities for economic and security cooperation among states in the region and to minimize the risk that existing traditional and nontraditional security threats could upset regional stability and economic growth.

The two states must reinvigorate the bilateral security alliance, lead efforts to reform and strengthen global governance, and work with regional partners to actively ensure the peace, stability, and prosperity of East Asia. The partnership between Japan and the United States must evolve into a more inclusive and comprehensive force for peace, stability, cooperation, and prosperity throughout the Asia Pacific region and the world.

This article is part of the ‘East Asia Insights‘ series, produced by the Japan Center for International Exchange, Tokyo, and can be found here.

Author: Hitoshi  Tanaka, Japan Centre for International Exchange

The international system is in a state of flux and uncertainties abound about its future form. For one, the long-term ramifications of the global financial crisis remain unclear. In a development unprecedented in the post-war era, the world’s three largest economies (the United States, Japan, and the European Union) have now entered into a simultaneous recession. At present, it is impossible to predict with any certainty how long current circumstances will persist. Meanwhile, the United States—the world’s pre-eminent world power—has recently elected a new president. Although President-elect Barack Obama has presented a strong vision for the United States’ role in the world, it will be at least six months into the new year until we know the extent to which the new administration is able to translate campaign promises into actual policy.

It is within this unpredictable international context that policymakers in Japan and overseas must rethink their respective approaches to China. The successful conclusion of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games this past August engendered a renewed confidence in Beijing about China’s international status and influence. Although China has not been immune to the painful effects of the current financial crisis, most indicators suggest that it should be able to maintain at least 8 per cent economic growth rate for the next several years. In addition to its continuing role as the primary engine of global economic growth, China has also begun to emerge as a key player in the fields of finance, energy, the environment, and—increasingly—military affairs. The massive scale of China’s expansion and scope of its global influence ensure that the stakes for the international community are very high. Continued prosperity and stability in East Asia will depend on the international community placing a renewed emphasis on getting China policy right.

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