Author: John Hemmings, CSIS, Honolulu

At both the APEC and ASEAN summits, attempts were made to deal with the building impasse over the South China Sea issue.

Tensions over the region have grown steadily since 2009, after China, Vietnam and Malaysia submitted their respective claims under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China’s naval exercises in the region and apparent willingness to showcase its military capabilities in favour of its claims have also exacerbated these tensions. Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI and CSIS

China has very successfully created new security ties over the last year.

The only problem is that most of these new relationships have been created because of China, rather than with China. Beijing is on the outside looking in. Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI and CSIS, Washington

Russo–Japanese bilateral relations appear to be at an all-time low. Terse diplomatic exchanges between Tokyo and Moscow have followed Russian promises to build up their military strength in the Russian Far East. The immediate cause of tension is the disputed Kuril Islands (or Northern Territories, as they’re known in Japan), seized from Japan by Stalin in the fading days of the Second World War, which prevented the two states from signing a formal peace treaty. Following the eviction of Japanese civilians in 1945 from the four islands off the coast of Japan’s northern-most island Hokkaido, the Soviet Union settled ethnic Russians onto the islands, who now fish the same waters as their Japanese predecessors.

The dispute stretches back nearly 66 years, so why has it taken on a new life? Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

North Korea’s artillery attack on its Southern neighbour was not – as it claimed- a justified reaction to a South Korean military exercise. Rather, it was only the latest in a series of pin-prick attacks designed to pressure and bully its southern neighbour.

This uniquely North Korean approach to diplomacy is a form of bullying that walks the Clausewitzean tightrope between politics and war. Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

It is often said that North Korea is the world’s only communist monarchy. But is it yet a true monarchy? The care with which Kim Jong-il has taken over the last 18 months in manoeuvring his third son, Kim Jong-un, into position to succeed him suggests that the dictator has some limits on his power in the North Korean system.

The reality of where power lies in Pyongyang is not as obvious as it might seem and there are indications that even Kim Jong-il must approach this transition carefully. Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

The sinking of the Cheonan, recent actions by the United States and South Korea, and reaction by China will provide some difficult questions for states of the Asia Pacific region, and the international community to resolve.

Senior security and defence officials in the US were left mulling over a recent decision to deploy the aircraft carrier USS George Washington for joint exercises with South Korean naval and air forces, intended to sooth Seoul and caution Pyongyang, after the sinking of South Korean frigate Cheonan in March this year.  Initially, the carrier was to deploy to the Yellow Sea, but under Chinese pressure, the US decided to hold the exercises in the Sea of Japan (known in Korea as the East Sea). Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

Four Prime Ministers in four years; this fact has been mentioned in various articles in the wake of Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama’s resignation, and it is a source of puzzlement and frustration within Japan and among its allies and neighbours. What hasn’t been asked is ‘why?’ What is causing this rapid turnover of political masters? Can Japan govern itself under these circumstances, and more importantly, what is the true cost of this rapid turnover of political leadership on Japan itself and on the region?

Despite the different circumstances of each prime ministerial career, there are common links in the fall of all four prime ministers. The most obvious has been public disillusionment, evident in low public approval ratings which herald sudden and hasty departures from office. Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

East Asia is dominated by the security triangle between the US, Japan and China. The US-Japan Alliance has greater aggregated economic and military might, but has been relatively static in recent years. Simultaneously, Chinese economic and military power is growing exponentially. In this context, growing Sino-Japanese political ties seem to indicate that Japan is considering its options.

Is a realignment in the security triangle taking place or are these developments merely cosmetic? Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

One thing is apparent: the great love affair between Europe and China is over.

Here in London and throughout the other major capitals of Europe, Copenhagen was the final straw for European policy-makers who advocated engagement with China, with their ideal of building China into the global order on ice. As Francois Gotement of the European Council on Foreign Relations notes, before Copenhagen, European thinkers still believed that they could use soft power to influence China on a host of issues that Europe believed were mutual to both. After Copenhagen, European attitudes have hardened and governments are reconsidering their approach to China. Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

Hatoyama’s plan for an East Asian Community, first mentioned in a September 2009 op-ed in the New York Times, is an interesting symbol of the split personality in Japanese foreign policy. Almost from the first, the idea raised hackles in both Beijing and in Washington, who view Japanese leadership and independence in the region warily for different reasons. In the article, Hatoyama tied together two arguments: that Japan needed to redress the imbalance in its relationship with the United States, and that Japan was an Asian power and should contribute to any discussion of regional architecture. The first statement raised hackles in Washington while the second raised hackles in Beijing. Naturally, Hatoyama’s point that Japan’s ‘proper place of being’ is as an Asian power which should shape the destiny of one of world’s fastest growing regions makes perfect sense from a Japanese point of view.

How can Japan’s sudden support for regional integration be explained? Read more…