Author: Junichi Fujino, NIES

It is highly likely that there is going to be a gap between the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the commitment period thereafter. Industrialised countries such as Japan and the United States are facing difficulties passing climate change bills. Under such circumstances, it will be difficult to expect an agreement on a post-Kyoto framework at the 16th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP16) in Cancun, Mexico. Even if the international community were able to agree on one at COP17 next year, it would nonetheless be difficult to obtain a sufficient number of ratifications for it to enter into force in 2012.

One Chinese energy expert stated recently, in conversation on the topic of China’s target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ‘China has played the card of reducing emissions regardless of what other states do. The United States has not yet passed the bill through Congress. Japan’s plan is conditional, leaving its actual emissions cut uncertain. Now it is your turn to play a card.’ Read more…