Author: Paul Dibb, ANU

The debate in Australia about the rise of China’s military power continues to rage. It is as if China is already knocking on our door and about to pose a direct threat to us.

But the reality is quite different. Read more…

Authors: Geoffrey Barker and Paul Dibb, ANU

Ross Babbage has deep concerns about China’s growing military power and assertiveness. His concerns are magnified by his pessimism over the economic outlook for the United States throughout the next decade.

In Australia’s Strategic Edge in 2030 (Kokoda Paper No. 15, February 2011) Babbage asks what Australia should do to ‘offset and deter’ the rapidly expanding Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Western Pacific. Read more…

Author: Paul Dibb and Geoffrey Barker

Foreign business negotiators in China face greatly increased uncertainty now that detained Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu, a Chinese-born Australian, has been formally charged with espionage offences.

The affair underscores the need for businessmen to understand Chinese communism and Chinese culture, history and attitudes, as well as the commercial and legal systems, when they deal with Chinese officials and business executives.

Read more…

Author: Paul Dibb, ANU

Australian politicians, driven by populist imperatives, are defining the global financial crisis mostly in terms of jobs, executive pay bonuses and government stimulus packages. This approach doubtless reflects short-term political necessities and pressures.  But it is a mistake to believe this is merely an economic crisis — as serious as it may well turn out to be.

No less fundamentally, the crisis also poses potentially serious geopolitical risks to Australians. The seriousness of these security risks will depend on the depth and duration of the downturn. But they could persist long after economic recovery takes place. Read more…