Author: Peter Van Ness, ANU
An arms race in space among the major powers would be immensely dangerous, destabilising, and expensive. Russia no longer has the resources or political will to sustain such a race, but China has. This is principally an issue between the US and China. Some analysts say that it is too late to conclude a treaty to ban weapons in space, but others argue, if not a treaty, then perhaps a code of conduct might work.
It is in the interests of both the US and the PRC – and the world – that the weaponisation of space be stopped. Read more…
Author: Peter Van Ness, ANU
In East Asia, ‘the times they are a-changing,’ and the pundits are full of speculation about what the new ‘architecture’ for the region will look like. After the Democratic Party of Japan’s historic electoral defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party in August, the government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has the opportunity to take the country in new directions, but it is unclear whether it will have the vision and determination to prevail. America, the world’s only superpower, is in serious trouble, and meanwhile China is on the rise. The focus is on how relations between United States and China will work out, and a discussion of new forms of multilateralism. Often ignored in these discussions, however, is the key role of Japan. Japan is too rich and too powerful to be left out. Whatever the future of East Asia, Japan will have to be a founding participant. In my view, Japan is an indispensable power in the region.
The Japanese are worried about the rise of China, but they worry even more about how to manage their relations with their post-World War II security guarantor, the U.S. Read more…
Author: Peter Van Ness, ANU
On Christmas Day, Liu Xiaobo, China’s most prominent political activist, was sentenced to 11 years in prison for ‘incitement to subvert state power.’ A former professor of literature at Beijing Normal University, Liu was jailed for 21 months after the June 1989 Tiananmen massacre and, in 1996, sentenced to reform through labour for an additional three years. He was detained again last year until his current conviction. Liu Xiaobo and Zhang Zhuhua are two of the main authors of Charter 08, published last year on December 10, on the sixtieth anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
China’s Charter 08 is a detailed statement of principle, inspired by Czechoslovakia’s Charter 77. Charter 08 calls for China to endorse the ‘basic universal values’ of freedom, human rights, equality, republicanism, democracy, and constitutional rule. Read more…
Author: Peter Van Ness
The DPRK has now tested a second nuclear device, launched more missiles, and even nullified all of its agreements from previous negotiations, including the truce that ended the Korean War (1950-1953). After the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1874, more provocations followed. Clearly Kim Jong-Il’s first priority is to keep his regime in power, and it is very likely that Pyongyang sees nuclear weapons adventurism as the best way to do that. If so, what can be done to dissuade the DPRK and move to a new course?
None of North Korea’s neighbours want to see the regime collapse for fear of thousands of refugees and a fundamental destabilization of the region. But to permit North Korea to emerge as a nuclear-weapons power would probably produce a nuclear arms race in the region with serious implications for non-proliferation elsewhere in the world, including Iran and with respect to non-state actors. Compounding the difficulty in dealing with this situation, there are doubts about whether Kim Jong-Il is in complete control after apparently suffering a stroke last August – it is reported that he has chosen his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, as his successor.
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Author: Peter Van Ness
George W. Bush has bequeathed to President Obama two unwinnable wars, a global financial crisis, problems of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, and a record of doing nothing about climate change.
When the President invites advice from his experts about how to deal with these problems inherited from Bush, he will find that most of his foreign relations advisors are practitioners of realism, by far the most popular paradigm for strategic thinkers and policy-makers.
The problem is that realism, as a way of understanding the world and making it comprehensible, will not help very much, because it is based on three fundamental assumptions that no longer hold true.
Obama will have to look elsewhere for advice.
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Author: Peter Van Ness, International Relations, ANU
During his first days in office, President Obama banned torture and restricted US interrogations to the non-coercive methods of the US Army Field Manual. He also ordered the closing of Guantanamo Bay and the CIA’s secret prisons abroad.
More recently, the President published some of the internal memos written by Bush administration lawyers that attempted to argue that torture was legal. By taking decisive action, President Obama hoped to deal with the problem and put the issue to rest. But the debate about torture is still raging.
The fact that the United States used torture in the interrogation of people captured during President Bush’s ‘war on terror’ is obviously a serious and complicated issue. This essay aims only to clarify three aspects: the language, legal status, and responsibility for this controversial policy.
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