Still a long way to go for China’s new normal

China has made a start on the transition to a consumption-led model of growth. But there is still a long way to go. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Ross Garnaut, The University of Melbourne

China’s old model of growth produced the strongest, most resource-intensive economic growth the world has ever seen. But the period in which China’s growth dominated world demand for energy and metals and lifted global commodities prices to unprecedented levels has come to an end. Read more…

G20 should facilitate international cooperation on climate change

Environmentalists from Poland and Europe participate in the March for Climate and Social Justice in Warsaw, Poland. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Ross Garnaut, University of Melbourne

The time is right to place climate change at centre stage of the 2014 G20 leaders-group meeting in Australia. The G20 has a record of leadership on the international climate change agenda. With the world working toward a critical meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris in December 2015, a firm position articulated by G20 leaders in Brisbane in November would be in time to influence the Lima UNFCCC meeting in December 2014. Read more…

Dog days for Australia after the boom

Ross Garnaut speaks at launch of his new book - Dog Days, Australia after the Boom - with Australian Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull at the National Press Club in Canberra, 15 November, 2013. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Ross Garnaut, University of Melbourne

Australia is enjoying its 22nd year of economic growth without recession — an experience that is unprecedented in any other developed country. For the first decade of expansion, growth was based on extraordinary increases in productivity, attributable to productivity-raising reforms from 1983. In the early years of this century, reform and productivity growth slowed sharply and then stopped. Read more…

China’s contribution to the global mitigation effort

Chinese workers check arrays of solar panels on the rooftop of an enterprises building in Ningguo, east Chinas Anhui province, 23 April 2013.

Author: Ross Garnaut, ANU, University of Melbourne

As the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) observed in its first survey of Chinese climate change policies in November 2012, ‘China is one of the countries most vulnerable to the adverse impact of climate change’.

This is one reason why it should come as no surprise that China has taken decisive action in recent years towards a more environmentally sustainable growth model. Read more…

Climate change: Where are we at globally now?

Members of environmentalist groups participate in a protest march march in Cancun, Mexico, on 07 December 2010, during the XVI United Nations Climate Change Conference. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Ross Garnaut, ANU and University of Melbourne

Human induced climate change is a global problem and an effective solution requires large mitigation contributions from all major developed and developing countries, and from the rest of the world too.

The search for effective climate change policy is partly a search for effective cooperation amongst countries of a kind and dimension that has never previously been known on a global scale. Read more…

The turning period in Chinese development

In this Tuesday, July 13, 2010 photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, college graduates attend a job fair in Haikou, capital of south China's Hainan Province. (Photo: Xinhua/Guo Cheng)

Author: Ross Garnaut, ANU and Melbourne University

What are the implications of the turning period for China’s continuing economic development, for China’s interaction with the global economy and for economic policy? Here I focus on four of the most important consequences, mention a consequence that is widely anticipated and feared, but which need not eventuate, and briefly discuss one way in which perceptions of China’s growth will be affected by its having entered the turning period.

As China enters deeply into the turning period (when unlimited supplies of labour become more difficult to mobilise for industrial development), there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income. Read more…

One year after the Garnaut Climate Change Review

Profesor Ross Garnaut (photo: AAP: Dave Hunt)

Author: Ross Garnaut

One year has passed since I released the final draft of the Climate Change Review. In the lead-up to Copenhagen, this is a timely opportunity to reflect on developments in the consideration of this diabolical policy problem and where it is all going now.

It’s relevant that my final report was presented to the Australian Prime Minister on the morning of the biggest ever points fall on the New York Stock Exchange. The discussion of the review has been against the back drop of the Great Crash of 2008 and the recession which followed.

Read more…