Author: Stephen Howes, ANU

In the second assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), back in 1995, the scientists of the world concluded only that the ‘balance of evidence’ supported a link between human action and global warming. This was the slender basis on which the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated.

In the IPCC’s third assessment report of 2001, the scientists were more confident saying that it was ‘likely’ that there was a link: they even attached a probability assessment to this statement – 60 to 90 per cent. The fourth IPCC assessment report of 2007 increased this probability to ‘very likely’: greater than 90 per cent. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Stephen Howes

The three main propositions around which the current global climate change negotiations are structured were agreed at the Bali Conference in December 2007. The first is that developed countries should commit to binding emission reduction targets. The second is that developing countries should adopt policies and measures to reduce emissions below what they would otherwise have been. The third is that developed countries should support developing ones, principally by the supply of finance, to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.

This is a different framework to that of the Kyoto Protocol, which placed obligations only on developed countries. Under the Bali Roadmap, everyone acts, but different metrics are used to measure obligations in developed and developing countries – targets for developed countries, policies for developing countries.

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Author: Stephen Howes

The Pacific Islands Forum meets in Cairns this week. If the leaders of the Pacific’s island economies want to know what needs to be done to lift the traditionally low levels of economic growth seen in the region, they would do well to ponder the recent growth record of one the Forum’s own members, Vanuatu.

Prior to 2004, Vanuatu, like many other Pacific island countries, had a long-term rate of economic growth little different from its population growth, about 2.5%. But economic growth in Vanuatu took off in 2004, and growth for the 2004-2008 period has averaged 6.6%.

Due to the global recession, short-term growth prospects are uncertain. But so far this year, tourism growth has accelerated, not declined.

Vanuatu’s growth acceleration is important for the Pacific. It dispels the myth that the Pacific island economies cannot grow, and it confirms the range of factors which are important for growth in the Pacific – a dynamic private sector, active land markets, deregulation, and macroeconomic and social stability.

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Author: Stephen Howes

Global mitigation was never going to be easy, but the course of action to date has made it more difficult rather than less. In 1992 (under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), in 1995 (under the so-called Berlin Mandate) and again in 1997 (under the Kyoto Protocol), the world agreed that the developed countries would be the first to reduce their emissions.

Achievement of the Kyoto Protocol’s 2012 targets would by itself have done little to slow growth in global emissions, but it would have been a sensible first step, and laid the foundations for more comprehensive global mitigation. Unfortunately, the United States and Australia walked away from the Protocol, and emissions have grown this decade in most developed countries. It is not surprising that negotiations to shape the post-2012 climate change architecture are making slow progress. Developed countries continue to call on developing countries to do more, but developing countries respond that they are still waiting for developed countries to take that first step they promised some 17 years ago.

The current impasse has given rise to a proliferation of academic proposals for the post-Kyoto global architecture. Yet, the international system shows enormous inertia. It is easy to critique the existing framework, but far more difficult to find consensus on an alternative. If there is to be a deal done, it will still likely be within the existing framework.

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Author: Stephen Howes

Global climate change negotiations are at an impasse, and have been for some time. With the imminent arrival of a US President committed to acting on climate change, eyes will increasingly turn to China, and what position it will take in global negotiations.

China’s just released White Paper: China’s policies and actions on climate change gives little away. It reads mainly as a progress report on the 2007 publication, China’s National Climate Change Programme.

The White Paper exhorts developing countries to “reduce emissions to the lowest degree.” This sounds good, but what does it mean? China has many policies in place for reducing emissions, from planting more trees to shutting down inefficient plant, but its aggregate emissions continue to grow rapidly.

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