Author: Stuart Harris, ANU
International oil prices have risen of late to levels not seen for two and a half years. The immediate cause is concern over political unrest in the Middle East and its effect or potential effect on the supply of crude oil from Middle East sources. In practice, however, that price effect is superimposed on a more fundamental influence on the current level of prices.
The existing uncertainties, exacerbated by the potential loss of Libyan oil production and exports already being experienced from the conflict or through sanctions, have stimulated sharp price increases. Read more…
Author: Stuart Harris, ANU
A little noticed anniversary celebrated in September was that of 50 years of the existence of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Despite the muted fanfare, its establishment led to fundamental changes in the global economic and political orders that remain critical today.
OPEC was established in September 1960 with five members – Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran; it now has 12 members. Read more…
Author: Stuart Harris, ANU
On 29th June, representatives of Taiwan and China signed an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). President Ma Ying-jeou declared it a further substantial contribution to stabilising cross strait relations and it was welcomed by the US State Department.
Although not a preferential (‘free’) trade agreement, it is moving in that direction subject to further negotiation and is clearly a major development in China-Taiwan relations. In Taiwan, however, the ECFA is highly controversial. Although an economic agreement, it has obvious, arguably significant, political implications. The two aspects can be looked at separately only with difficulty. Read more…
Author: Stuart Harris, ANU
The still highly complex relationship between China and Taiwan can be seen in the reactions of both countries following the Haiti earthquake. One Taiwanese and eight Chinese lives were claimed by the disaster, and both countries have given substantial aid (initially $4.2 million and $5 million respectively) as well as sent teams to assist with relief efforts. But so far there have been few, if any, signs of Chinese pressure to change Haiti’s diplomatic links with Taiwan.
This may be an attempt by China to live up to its role as a global power – after all, four of the Chinese casualties were members of the UN peacekeeping force. Read more…
Author: Stuart Harris
Taiwan has been invited by the WHO to attend the annual meeting of the World Health Assembly, its top decision making body, as an observer. Observers are able to participate in all activities along with members but have no voting rights.
This will be seen generally as an important step forward both as a contribution to the health of Taiwan’s population and as a step towards greater international participation. It reflects a degree of pragmatism by the Chinese authorities who have blocked 12 previous attempts by Taiwan to participate and it is, of course, a response to the widespread criticism China received internationally and within the region for blocking Taiwan’s attendance when the SARS epidemic was active.
It undoubtedly also reflects recognition that the cross-border transmission of diseases like swine flu could harm China.
Read more…
Author: Stuart Harris, International Relations, ANU
Celebrating the 30th anniversary of China’s first attempt at a non-confrontational policy towards Taiwan, President Hu Jintao made a speech on the last day of 2008 containing six proposals for making progress on the broader issues of cross-strait relations with Taiwan.
These proposals included a peace accord with exchanges between the two militaries, an end to political confrontation in a ‘one China’ framework, enhanced economic cooperation, strengthening common cultural links, personal exchanges with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and adequate arrangements for Taiwan to participate in international organizations.
The past year has already seen a lowering of tensions across the Taiwan Strait with the more flexible policies of President Ma Ying-jeou since he succeeded President Chen Shui-bian in May 2008, and a more nuanced policy approach to Taiwan out of Beijing.
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