Author: Vikas Kumar, Azim Premji University
India’s decision against allowing FDI in the retail sector has evoked strong reactions. According to the Indian Parliamentary Standing Committee on Commerce (PSCC), this sector accounts for about 10 per cent of GDP and is the second-largest employer after agriculture.
It employs about 40 million people (8 per cent of the workforce) and thereby affects as much as one-sixth of India’s population. This sector absorbs large numbers of unemployed youth, particularly in towns and cities, by offering them entrepreneurial opportunities. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Azim Premji University
Recent developments in Myanmar have generated considerable optimism about the country’s long-impending democratisation.
But will democracy foster ethnic reconciliation, essential for Myanmar’s domestic stability? Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Azim Premji University
China’s aggressive posturing in recent boundary disputes is causing widespread concern in the Asia Pacific.
But sensing growing opposition, China is renewing cooperation with its neighbours to calm tensions. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, commentators on East Asia Forum have highlighted the moderate character of Southeast Asian Islam.
Bahrawi argues that contested interpretations of Islam are democratising Islam in Southeast Asia — but similar contests seem to be ineffective in countries like Pakistan. And van Bruinessen argues that large, resilient Islamic organisations are stabilising Indonesian democracy — but comparable organisations are failing to play such a role in other Islamic countries. So are local factors playing a bigger role in Southeast Asia than is usually suspected? Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Azim Premji University
During her last visit to India in July, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged India to play a bigger role in Asia.
While this predates Clinton’s more recent suggestion that India, China and the US should work more closely together, it is still widely believed that heightened India–US cooperation is aimed at encircling China. And it appears the symbolic element of official India–US interactions is often mistaken for a sustainable strategic relationship. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
President Barack Obama is disillusioned with Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy. But he is unwilling to admit that his exit deadline, governed by considerations for his re-election next year, has allowed the Taliban — and its supporters and promoters within the Pakistani military intelligence — to destabilise the situation in Afghanistan without making costly investments in capturing territory.
The Taliban and its supporters believe any potential outcome in Afghanistan to be zero-sum: if the US does not win it loses and if they do not to lose they win. In the meantime, all they need to do is publicise the cost of the War on Terror to US voters, for which spectacular attacks on foreign embassies in Afghanistan and the killing of a few coalition soldiers a week is sufficient. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
The future of international terrorism and the War on Terror is being hotly debated after Osama bin Laden’s death.
Bin Laden’s demise could trigger competition for supremacy among extremists. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
Threatened by geographic and demographic factors, the sovereignty of Oceania’s microstates has been precarious from their inception.
Each of these states has a small but highly diverse population spread over a very large area — their exclusive economic zones (EEZ) are comparable in size to EEZs of some of the world’s largest countries. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
Both the Chinese and Indian media suffer from hysteria over an impending Sino-Indian War and occasionally indulge in competitive jingoism.
The hysteria usually begins with some obscure news item or opinion piece published in one country regarding the offensive preparations from the other side of the Himalayas and quickly escalates to a ‘we-will-give-a-fitting-reply’ kind of exchange. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
Bangladesh is not only one of the most densely populated countries in the world, but it is also among the countries most vulnerable to natural disasters.
In the foreseeable future, climate change is likely to accentuate these crises, and increasingly, Bangladeshis will attempt to make their way to India. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
On 8 December 2010, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) celebrated its twenty-fifth Charter Day. SAARC is not only growing but increasingly being accepted at multilateral forums as representative of its member states.
For instance, SAARC was recently accepted as an observer at the United Nations Climate Change Conference at Cancun. But unfortunately, unlike its older cousins the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), SAARC has never managed to fully take off and continues to be a nominal entity. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been extremely combative ever since the Nobel Peace Prize panel identified Liu Xiaobo, serving a prison sentence for inciting subversion, as this year’s Nobel Peace Laureate.
He was chosen in recognition of ‘his long and nonviolent struggle for fundamental human rights in China.’ The CCP responded with its usual attacks on free press, democracy, and the West. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
It is widely believed that China is engaged in extensive intelligence operations targeting the United States. And yet remarkably, it refuses to learn from common knowledge about the United States’ experience as the current global power. This Chinese learning deficit has serious consequences for China and the world at large.
It is well-known that the United States’ policy of using extremist Islamic regimes as proxies against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan has boomeranged. China refuses to learn from the United States’ experience in this regard. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
During the Cold War, Australia’s engagement with Asia was largely governed by its ethno-historical affiliation with the West. A case in point was Australia’s membership of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO), which was governed by the United States’ global security calculus.
More recent Australian engagements with Asia, particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq, have also unfolded under the US security umbrella. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
Over the last two decades Asia has seen the emergence of competing centres of power, an unprecedented development in its modern history. A similar development in modern West Europe was followed by immense inter-state rivalry that ended only after a series of devastating wars. Even then it was the common threat of Communism and the security umbrella of an outsider, the United States, that curbed inter-state military rivalry. The United States served as a channel for inter-state communication and also balanced local powers against each other. In addition, it committed itself to defend West Europe from Soviet aggression. While Asian countries are cognisant of the economics of conflict, none of the major constituent regions of Asia — East, West and South Asia — has a common enemy that could force otherwise competing powers to close ranks.
More importantly, the capacity of any state, including the United States, to serve as a guarantor of security in 21st century Asia is increasingly moot. Read more…
