Authors: Ma Xin, Li Jifeng and Zhang Yaxiong, NDRC and SIC

At the Copenhagen climate summit, there are some misunderstandings and differences of opinion on China’s commitment to cut the intensity of its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 per cent by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. Detractors argue that China’s efforts in emission cuts are not ambitious enough, and even believe that China’s target does not transcend the BAU (Business As Usual) scenario.

First, we should have a comprehensive understanding of the BAU scenario in international talks on climate change. Generally, the BAU scenario means adhering to an established economic and social development path without any policy adjustment. Specifically, the BAU scenario in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions refers to the amount of GHGs discharged in order to maintain the current economic and social development momentum. Read more…