Author: Renu Kohli, ICRIER

The recent depreciation of the rupee has been a costly shock for India’s financial and real economy.

The large and abrupt drop in the currency’s value has negatively impacted businesses and households by pushing up costs in an inflationary phase, increased price uncertainty and volatility, dented economic confidence, and worsened the critical macroeconomic aggregates. Read more…

Author: Suman Bery, IGC

India’s quick recovery from the post-Lehman slump of late 2008 is usually attributed to the relatively low global exposure of the country’s economy.

But this is an incomplete and perhaps misleading interpretation of what actually happened. Read more…

Author: Ronojoy Sen, NUS

State legislative assembly elections are being held in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s largest state, over seven phases between 8 February and 3 March.

UP elections are notoriously difficult to call because of the state’s size and the complex interplay of region, caste and religion. Read more…

Author: Geethanjali Nataraj, NCAER

As developed countries struggle to recover after the global recession and try to confront the looming sovereign debt crisis in Europe, big emerging markets are now driving global growth.

Given the slow down in developed countries, emerging economies are trying to boost domestic demand to sustain growth — and this is particularly the case in China. Read more…

Author: Mahendra Ved, New Delhi

While the Indian car sector is travelling in the fast lane, road and public transport projects have not kept pace. Indians bought about 2.5 million cars last year, worth US$30 billion, while another half a million were exported.

This year, assuming that car-loan rates decline and the economy improves, the market could grow by 10 to 12 per cent — and even if rates remain static, the car market will still grow by 5 to 7 per cent. Read more…

Author: Sanjana Joshi, ICRIER

High-level political contacts between India and Japan since the year 2000 have produced a multitude of political documents.

And as Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda wrapped up his official visit to India on 27–29 December, following the annual meeting between the Indian and Japanese prime ministers, the countries’ respective policy establishments unveiled the Vision for the Enhancement of India-Japan Strategic and Global Partnership. Read more…

Author: Nandita Dasgupta, UMBC

India’s food price inflation has been a major driving factor behind the country’s accelerating inflation over the past few years.

In particular, agricultural food prices rose sharply during 2011. Read more…

Author: M. Govinda Rao, NIPFP

India’s economy was one of the earliest to stage a turnaround after the global financial crisis.

The decisions taken in early 2008 to increase public-sector wages, forgive loans for farmers who had borrowed from the banks, and massively expand the rural-employment guarantee scheme assisted the economy before the global financial crisis unfolded in the last quarter of the year. Read more…

Author: Vikas Kumar, Azim Premji University

India’s decision against allowing FDI in the retail sector has evoked strong reactions. According to the Indian Parliamentary Standing Committee on Commerce (PSCC), this sector accounts for about 10 per cent of GDP and is the second-largest employer after agriculture.

It employs about 40 million people (8 per cent of the workforce) and thereby affects as much as one-sixth of India’s population. This sector absorbs large numbers of unemployed youth, particularly in towns and cities, by offering them entrepreneurial opportunities. Read more…

Author: Rajiv Kumar, FICCI

The Luddites have won for the moment, with their recent protests following the Indian government’s decision to allow FDI in the retail sector.

A mere 10 million owners of traditional and self-organised retail and wholesale trade have held a country of 1.2 billion people to ransom and thwarted progress. Read more…

Author: Rajiv Kumar, FICCI

For the foreseeable future at least, India will meet the majority of its energy demand with fossil fuels.

Renewable energy does not yet offer effective substitutes for oil in transport and power generation, despite marked improvements in hybrid transport technology and the steep decline of photovoltaic panel prices. Read more…

Author: Pravakar Sahoo, IEG

A falling currency may be normal and acceptable when the economy is slowing, but the rupee’s apparent free fall over the last few months — more than 15 per cent since August — is a serious blow to the Indian economy.

Though a depreciating rupee is not surprising given India’s international investment position, with its higher rate of liabilities than assets, such a sudden fall is worrisome. Read more…

Author: Renu Kohli, ICRIER

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) hands-off exchange rate strategy has resulted in a missed opportunity to curtail inflation.

Intervention in the foreign exchange market would have helped counter inflation; but the RBI has failed to grasp such a dexterous policy tool.  Read more…

Author: Rajiv Kumar, FICCI

Pakistan’s decision to grant India most favoured nation (MFN) trading status opens up many potential benefits for both countries; existing trade arrangements will be improved and new opportunities will emerge as bilateral trade is normalised.

At present, a great deal of trade occurs via Dubai, a situation which is inefficient and fraught with illegalities effectively functioning as behind-the-border barriers to trade. Read more…

Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, commentators on East Asia Forum have highlighted the moderate character of Southeast Asian Islam.

Bahrawi argues that contested interpretations of Islam are democratising Islam in Southeast Asia — but similar contests seem to be ineffective in countries like Pakistan. And van Bruinessen argues that large, resilient Islamic organisations are stabilising Indonesian democracy — but comparable organisations are failing to play such a role in other Islamic countries. So are local factors playing a bigger role in Southeast Asia than is usually suspected?  Read more…