Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Steven Kim, APCSS
The death of Kim Jong-il, though not entirely unexpected given the state of his health following a debilitating stroke in August 2008, has had a powerful psychological impact both domestically and globally.
His death leaves a huge vacuum not only in the North Korean psyche, but in the system that he embodied. Read more…
Author: Wei Zhijiang, Sun Yat-sen University
After the death of Kim Jong-il in December, Kim Jong-un has officially become the supreme leader of North Korea and the supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army.
This is in addition to his position as the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Korean Workers’ Party, which was announced in September 2010. Read more…
Author: Yoon Young-kwan, Seoul National University
After North Korea’s sinking of a South Korean frigate, Cheonan, and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, inter-Korean relations did not improve much in 2011.
There was limited official contact between the South and the North and between the US and the North to discuss the possible resumption of Six-Party Talks or food aid. Read more…
Author: Scott A. Snyder, CFR
North Korea’s leadership succession from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un has gone according to script.
The Korean Workers’ Party and the Korean People’s Army are supporting Kim Jong-un as North Korea’s new leader and North Korea’s propaganda machine has not missed a beat in announcing new titles, manufacturing accomplishments and portraying Kim Jong-un as a Great Successor worthy of the name. Read more…
Author: Alexander Vorontsov, Russian Academy of Sciences
The grand funeral ceremony for Kim Jong-il was completed earlier this month, and North Korea’s new leader, Kim Jong-un, was officially sworn in.
The event clearly opened a new chapter in North Korea’s history. Read more…
Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum
One of the more momentous changes in Asia that heralded in the New Year was the sudden death of North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, and the succession by his son, Kim Jong-un.
Kim Jong-il’s death had long been seen by some outside observers as portent for the collapse of the North Korean regime and the announcement encouraged much comment that reflected these forebodings, including calls for calm from political leaders who should have been in the know. Read more…
Authors: John Delury and Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University
Kim Jong-il’s sudden death spurred yet another round of fevered speculation over the DPRK’s imminent demise.
Some analysts gave the North Korean state only a matter of months to live, and renewed calls on Beijing to engage in ‘contingency planning’ with Washington and Seoul to pre-empt catastrophe when collapse finally comes. Read more…
Author: Aidan Foster-Carter, Leeds University
The sudden death of Kim Jong-il changes North Korea, in Donald Rumsfeld’s useful phrase, from a known unknown to an unknown unknown.
With Kim senior we knew where we were — to some extent: the old trickster liked to keep us guessing. But his son is a blank — so far. Read more…
Author: Ruediger Frank, University of Vienna
Kim Jong-il is no more. The state news agency KCNA reported that he died on his train on Saturday 17 December 2011. This is the official version (now doubted internationally) that observers of North Korea have actually seen under preparation for quite a while, including in works of art that were discussed here.
Author: Bradley O. Babson
At the moment of his accession to power, Kim Jong-il inherited the devastating impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the subsequent trade shock to North Korea’s economic output, the onset of the worst famine in modern history, and a humanitarian crisis that required a direct appeal to the outside world for help.
By the late 1990’s, he was forced to accept the realities of dependence on international aid, the rise of farmers markets as a grassroots response to the famine, and the introduction of capitalist notions such as ‘profits’ in the Constitution itself. Read more…
Author: Geoffrey K. See, Choson Exchange
My team was finalising our 2012 program plans for North Korea exchanges — preparing to implement workshops on fiscal strategy and financial sector development, as well as discussing the potential of an economic think tank comprised of policy makers — and in close contact with our local partners shortly before Kim Jong-il’s passing.
These were all very interesting ideas because our North Korean partners were driving them, rather than us. Now, programs will be delayed and disrupted. Read more…
Authors: Peter Hayes, Scott Bruce, and David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute
When North Korean leader and founding father Kim Il Sung died in July 1994, his son Kim Jong Il had effectively held the reins of power since 1981.
The problem with Kim Jong Il dying during an ‘on the spot guidance’ on December 17 — as announced by the North Korean official media on December 19 — is that not much is known about his third son and designated 27-year-old successor, Kim Jong Un. Read more…
Authors: Geoffrey K. See and Andray Abrahamian, Choson Exchange
Intra-elite competition for investments in North Korea, with multiple channels backed by different individuals at the highest levels of the North Korean government, has significantly increased in the last two years.
This competition appears to mark a shift towards increasing reliance on economic performance as a primary source of legitimacy for the North Korean government. Read more…
Author: Robert E. Kelly, PNU
President Lee Myung-bak’s October trip to the US represents an ostensible high point in the US-ROK alliance.
But there are cracks in the relationship, primarily on the American side. Read more…
Author: Aidan Foster-Carter, Leeds University
After three and a half years of a hard line with nothing to show for it except worsened inter-Korea relations, Lee Myung-bak is at long last executing a U-turn. Not openly and without fanfare of course; but the signs are clear.
In a speech in New York on 20 September, Lee sounded a note both old and new. As ever he stressed denuclearisation, but in a way which suggests this may no longer be a first step and precondition for progress. Read more…