Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Sandy Gordon, ANU
Washington has now moderated Secretary for Defense Leon Panetta’s statement that the US, as a fighting force, would be in the barracks by mid-2013.
US forces may now come out to fight as and when necessary until their departure at the end of 2014. Read more…
Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum
In the latest episode in Pakistan’s unfolding political drama, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani appeared before the Supreme Court on Thursday over the failure to prosecute corruption charges against his political patron, President Asif Ali Zardari, who came to power after the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto.
This is no simple one-plot play about a contest over political corruption between the Supreme Court and the civilian government of Pakistan. Read more…
Author: Moeen Cheema, ANU
Pakistan experienced dramatic political crises in 2011, including the covert raid carried out by the US on 2 May, which killed Osama bin Laden, and the killing of two civilians by CIA contractor Raymond Davis.
It was in these circumstances that an American businessman of Pakistani origin, Mansoor Ijaz, wrote a ‘memorandum’ to the US military commander urging an intervention on behalf of Pakistan’s elected government, which seemed on the verge of being toppled by the country’s historically powerful military establishment. Read more…
Author: Ishrat Husain, IBA, Karachi
Pakistan’s economy remained sluggish in 2011 due to domestic political instability, energy shortages, deteriorating Pakistan-US relations, global climate change and internal security concerns.
For the fourth year in a row, GDP growth in 2011-12 will fall below its long-term growth rate. Read more…
Author: Vidya S. Sharma, Melbourne
The political fortune of Pakistani cricketing superstar-turned-politician Imran Khan is on the rise.
Since he founded his Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or Movement for Justice (MJP), in 1996, Khan has remained a fringe player. Read more…
Author: Alicia Mollaun, ANU
In Pakistan, external shocks and unforeseen events defined 2011. But for the Western world and for Pakistanis, this past year will be remembered very differently.
Drones, floods, economic misery, developmental challenges and a fraught relationship with the US will stick in the memory of Pakistanis. While in the West, 2011 will be remembered as the year the US killed Osama bin Laden — only 50 kilometres from the Pakistani capital.
Author: Alicia Mollaun, ANU
This year will be remembered as annus horribilis for Pakistan–United States relations.
CIA contractor Raymond Davis kicked off the downward slide when he gunned down two Pakistanis in Lahore, creating an enormous diplomatic immunity circus, which saw the media, politicians and even President Obama entering the fray. Read more…
Author: Rajiv Kumar, FICCI
Pakistan’s decision to grant India most favoured nation (MFN) trading status opens up many potential benefits for both countries; existing trade arrangements will be improved and new opportunities will emerge as bilateral trade is normalised.
At present, a great deal of trade occurs via Dubai, a situation which is inefficient and fraught with illegalities effectively functioning as behind-the-border barriers to trade. Read more…
Authors: Rajesh Basrur and Yang Razali Kassim, RSIS
In late September, the Earth Observatory of Singapore released a study affirming that ‘a big earthquake’ could occur in the Kashmir region of South Asia ‘anytime’.
While the Observatory stated it is too early to anticipate the location and size of such an event, the effects of a ‘megaquake’ in the region could be horrendous. Read more…
Author: Rajiv Kumar, FICCI
The Pakistan Commerce Minister’s recent visit to India, along with nearly 80 business delegates and high-ranking officials, will hopefully provide the platform from which commercial relations between India and Pakistan move into a higher trajectory.
This visit comes after three-and-a-half decades and follows a very successful round of meetings between the two Commerce Secretaries in Islamabad in April this year. These developments have, for once, taken the external observers of South Asia by surprise. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
President Barack Obama is disillusioned with Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy. But he is unwilling to admit that his exit deadline, governed by considerations for his re-election next year, has allowed the Taliban — and its supporters and promoters within the Pakistani military intelligence — to destabilise the situation in Afghanistan without making costly investments in capturing territory.
The Taliban and its supporters believe any potential outcome in Afghanistan to be zero-sum: if the US does not win it loses and if they do not to lose they win. In the meantime, all they need to do is publicise the cost of the War on Terror to US voters, for which spectacular attacks on foreign embassies in Afghanistan and the killing of a few coalition soldiers a week is sufficient. Read more…
Author: Sourabh Gupta, Samuels International
On 7 September 2011 in Dacca, the prime ministers of India and Bangladesh signed a landmark protocol to their 1974 Land Boundary Agreement, providing for final settlement of their long-pending boundary issues.
Given that instances of territorial dispute settlement in this sovereignty-conscious region have been few and far between, this exercise in statesmanship is both commendable and long overdue. Read more…
Authors: Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe, FDI, James Brazier and Lilit Gevorgyan, IHS Global Insight
Since the Central Asian republics attained independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Pakistan has entertained serious ambitions of cultivating and strengthening relations with Central Asia.
Unfortunately, strategic myopia has skewed Pakistan’s focus towards securing influence in Afghanistan, limiting its success at building inroads into Central Asia. Read more…
Author: Ghulam Ali, National Chengchi University
On 11 August 2011 China successfully launched Pakistan’s communication satellite, Paksat-1R, into space from its Xichang Satellite Launch Center (XSLC) in Sichuan Province.
The satellite covers all of Pakistan, parts of South and Central Asia, the Far East, Eastern Europe and East Africa. It will replace the aging Paksat-1, which is approaching the end of its 15-year life span this November. Read more…
Author: Bruce Riedel, Brookings Institution & Johns Hopkins University
The struggle for control of Pakistan — soon to be the world’s fifth most populous country, holding the world’s fifth largest nuclear arsenal — intensifies every day.
The outcome is far from certain. The key player, Pakistan’s army, seems dangerously ambivalent about which side should prevail: the jihadist Frankenstein it created, or the democratically-elected civilian government it despises. Read more…