Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Geethanjali Nataraj, NCAER
As developed countries struggle to recover after the global recession and try to confront the looming sovereign debt crisis in Europe, big emerging markets are now driving global growth.
Given the slow down in developed countries, emerging economies are trying to boost domestic demand to sustain growth — and this is particularly the case in China. Read more…
Author: Mahendra Ved, New Delhi
While the Indian car sector is travelling in the fast lane, road and public transport projects have not kept pace. Indians bought about 2.5 million cars last year, worth US$30 billion, while another half a million were exported.
This year, assuming that car-loan rates decline and the economy improves, the market could grow by 10 to 12 per cent — and even if rates remain static, the car market will still grow by 5 to 7 per cent. Read more…
Author: Sanjana Joshi, ICRIER
High-level political contacts between India and Japan since the year 2000 have produced a multitude of political documents.
And as Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda wrapped up his official visit to India on 27–29 December, following the annual meeting between the Indian and Japanese prime ministers, the countries’ respective policy establishments unveiled the Vision for the Enhancement of India-Japan Strategic and Global Partnership. Read more…
Author: Nandita Dasgupta, UMBC
India’s food price inflation has been a major driving factor behind the country’s accelerating inflation over the past few years.
In particular, agricultural food prices rose sharply during 2011. Read more…
Author: M. Govinda Rao, NIPFP
India’s economy was one of the earliest to stage a turnaround after the global financial crisis.
The decisions taken in early 2008 to increase public-sector wages, forgive loans for farmers who had borrowed from the banks, and massively expand the rural-employment guarantee scheme assisted the economy before the global financial crisis unfolded in the last quarter of the year. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Azim Premji University
India’s decision against allowing FDI in the retail sector has evoked strong reactions. According to the Indian Parliamentary Standing Committee on Commerce (PSCC), this sector accounts for about 10 per cent of GDP and is the second-largest employer after agriculture.
It employs about 40 million people (8 per cent of the workforce) and thereby affects as much as one-sixth of India’s population. This sector absorbs large numbers of unemployed youth, particularly in towns and cities, by offering them entrepreneurial opportunities. Read more…
Author: Rajiv Kumar, FICCI
The Luddites have won for the moment, with their recent protests following the Indian government’s decision to allow FDI in the retail sector.
A mere 10 million owners of traditional and self-organised retail and wholesale trade have held a country of 1.2 billion people to ransom and thwarted progress. Read more…
Author: Rajiv Kumar, FICCI
For the foreseeable future at least, India will meet the majority of its energy demand with fossil fuels.
Renewable energy does not yet offer effective substitutes for oil in transport and power generation, despite marked improvements in hybrid transport technology and the steep decline of photovoltaic panel prices. Read more…
Author: Pravakar Sahoo, IEG
A falling currency may be normal and acceptable when the economy is slowing, but the rupee’s apparent free fall over the last few months — more than 15 per cent since August — is a serious blow to the Indian economy.
Though a depreciating rupee is not surprising given India’s international investment position, with its higher rate of liabilities than assets, such a sudden fall is worrisome. Read more…
Author: Renu Kohli, ICRIER
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) hands-off exchange rate strategy has resulted in a missed opportunity to curtail inflation.
Intervention in the foreign exchange market would have helped counter inflation; but the RBI has failed to grasp such a dexterous policy tool. Read more…
Author: Rajiv Kumar, FICCI
Pakistan’s decision to grant India most favoured nation (MFN) trading status opens up many potential benefits for both countries; existing trade arrangements will be improved and new opportunities will emerge as bilateral trade is normalised.
At present, a great deal of trade occurs via Dubai, a situation which is inefficient and fraught with illegalities effectively functioning as behind-the-border barriers to trade. Read more…
Author: Vikas Kumar, Bangalore
In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, commentators on East Asia Forum have highlighted the moderate character of Southeast Asian Islam.
Bahrawi argues that contested interpretations of Islam are democratising Islam in Southeast Asia — but similar contests seem to be ineffective in countries like Pakistan. And van Bruinessen argues that large, resilient Islamic organisations are stabilising Indonesian democracy — but comparable organisations are failing to play such a role in other Islamic countries. So are local factors playing a bigger role in Southeast Asia than is usually suspected? Read more…
Author: Suman Bery, IGC
The Indian government presented its National Manufacturing Policy (NMP) to the nation in early November.
Presumably, the announcement was timed to demonstrate that reform is alive and kicking before parliament reconvenes later this month. With the final text now available on the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion website, it is possible to take a considered view of the policy’s goals, the means proposed to achieve them and the probability of success. It is also possible to speculate on the unintended consequences and possible collateral damage.
Author: Vikas Kumar, Azim Premji University
During her last visit to India in July, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged India to play a bigger role in Asia.
While this predates Clinton’s more recent suggestion that India, China and the US should work more closely together, it is still widely believed that heightened India–US cooperation is aimed at encircling China. And it appears the symbolic element of official India–US interactions is often mistaken for a sustainable strategic relationship. Read more…
Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum
As they struggle to escape the global financial crisis, the prospect of China’s continued, powerful growth both excites and challenges the established economic powers in Europe and North America.
US President Obama’s trip to Australia and the East Asia Summit last week was dominated by American strategies to deal with the challenge of China. Read more…