North Korea’s succession: Kim Jong-un faces tough strategic decisions

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looks at a large map with Ri Yong Ho vice marshal of the Korean People's Army (KPA) and Peoples Armed Forces Minister Kim Yong Chun during a visit to the Command of Large Combined Unit 324 (Photo: AAP)

Author: Steven Kim, APCSS

The death of Kim Jong-il, though not entirely unexpected given the state of his health following a debilitating stroke in August 2008, has had a powerful psychological impact both domestically and globally.

His death leaves a huge vacuum not only in the North Korean psyche, but in the system that he embodied. Read more…

China’s regional and global power

Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz meets with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao on 15 Jan. 2012 at the royal palace in Riyadh. Wen pressed Saudi Arabia to open its huge oil and gas resources to expanded Chinese investment. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Zhang Yunling, CASS

Since China’s reform and opening-up policies began in the 1970s, the country’s average annual economic growth rate has hovered around 10 per cent.

Currently, China’s gross domestic product is second only to the United States; it is the world’s largest exporter and importer and the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves. Along with China’s remarkable economic rise comes an increase in China’s role in both regional and global development and governance. Read more…

Taiwan’s election results raise Chinese expectations

Taiwan President and ruling Kuomintang presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou and his wife, Chou Mei-ching, greet supporters after winning the presidential elections outside the party campaign headquarters in Taipei on 14 January 2012. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Sheryn Lee, ANU

On 14 January, Taiwan’s incumbent president, Ma Ying-jeou, won a second term in office, obtaining 51.6 per cent of the popular vote while Tsai Ing-wen, his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) opponent, managed 45.6 per cent.

Ma’s party, the Kuomintang (KMT), thus retained control of the Legislative Yuan, securing 64 of the 113 seats. Read more…

Economic cooperation strengthened at India-Japan summit

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pose for photographs before their scheduled talks in New Delhi, India, Wednesday 28 December 2011. Noda was on a two-day state visit to India. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Sanjana Joshi, ICRIER

High-level political contacts between India and Japan since the year 2000 have produced a multitude of political documents.

And as Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda wrapped up his official visit to India on 27–29 December, following the annual meeting between the Indian and Japanese prime ministers, the countries’ respective policy establishments unveiled the Vision for the Enhancement of India-Japan Strategic and Global Partnership. Read more…

Asia’s mixed outlook for 2012

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner meets with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

The year 2011 proved fascinating for Asia, with the region consolidating its role as the essential player driving global economic recovery.

But 2012 promises to be more fraught as domestic politics take command amid new challenges to growth. A number of risks, opportunities and emerging patterns will shape Asia during the next 12 months and beyond. Read more…

Vietnam confronts the Chinese ‘charm offensive’

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao waves to media as he arrives at Noi Bai airport in Hanoi on 28 Oct. 2010. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Le Hong Hiep, Vietnam National University

Vietnam is arguably the most ‘sinicised’ country in Southeast Asia, a distinctive result of more than 2000 years of intense interaction between Vietnam and China.

But the Vietnamese absorption of Chinese culture is neither a straightforward process nor an inescapable outcome of geographical proximity; it is much more nuanced. Read more…

Asian security strategy: one hand not clapping

Philippine marines storm a beach with their counterpart from the US Marines Battalion Landing Team, 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit based in Okinawa, Japan, during the annual joint military exercise at San Antonio, Zambales province northwest of Manila, Philippines on 23 October 2011. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

The whirlwind visit of President Barack Obama to Australia on the way to the East Asia Summit in Indonesia last November, many believe, forever changed the Asia Pacific strategic landscape with a re-assertion of American primacy and power in Asia.

What was the thinking behind the moves that Obama announced in Canberra and how will it shape Southeast Asia’s strategic future? Read more…

Thai–Cambodian conflict rooted in history

Residents of the disputed area near the Preah Vihear temple, hold placards during a demonstration in front of the United Nations office in Bangkok, Thailand, 10 January 2012. Cambodia and Thailand agreed to withdraw troops from a contested border area but had not fixed a timetable to do so media reports said on 22 December 2011. The neighbours agreed to implement a July 2011 ruling by the International Court of Justice in The Hague that ordered them to remove troops from an area near the 11th century temple of Preah Vihear and allow Indonesian observers to monitor a ceasefire, the Phnom Penh Post newspaper said. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Kimly Ngoun, ANU

The conflict between Cambodia and Thailand has made headlines around the world over the past few years.

The latest dispute was precipitated by Thailand’s failed effort to block Cambodia from unilaterally nominating Preah Vihear Temple — an ancient Khmer temple located within a disputed border area — as a World Heritage site.

Read more…

Kim Jong-un’s regime: facing up to domestic challenges, China and the US

In this undated photo released by the Korean Central News Agency and Kim Jong-un waves at soldiers while inspecting a military unit. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Wei Zhijiang, Sun Yat-sen University

After the death of Kim Jong-il in December, Kim Jong-un has officially become the supreme leader of North Korea and the supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army.

This is in addition to his position as the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Korean Workers’ Party, which was announced in September 2010. Read more…

Taiwan’s vote and its international implications

Pasuya Yao (C), director of the Taiwan Government Information Office, points to an advertisement for the 13th bid to join the United Nations by Taiwan. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Nitin Pai, Takshashila Institution

Taiwan’s presidential elections, since they first started in 1996, have in large part been referenda on the ‘One China’ policy.

Voters are generally offered two deviations from the status quo — either a path toward eventual reunification with mainland China or a path toward independence. Read more…

Pakistan: a tumultuous economy and divided politics

A Pakistani sweets vendor waits for customers at a roadside of Islamabad on 17 January 2012. For the fourth year in a row, GDP growth in 2011−12 will fall below its long-term growth rate. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Ishrat Husain, IBA, Karachi

Pakistan’s economy remained sluggish in 2011 due to domestic political instability, energy shortages, deteriorating Pakistan-US relations, global climate change and internal security concerns.

For the fourth year in a row, GDP growth in 2011-12 will fall below its long-term growth rate. Read more…

Pakistan: lots of headlines, little progress

A Pakistani woman looks for warm clothes at a roadside market in Islamabad on 17 January 2012. The Pakistan economy has been badly affected by three major factors, including devastating floods in 2010 which caused damage US$10 billion worth of damage, an increase in oil prices at the international level, and the turbulent security situation. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Alicia Mollaun, ANU

In Pakistan, external shocks and unforeseen events defined 2011. But for the Western world and for Pakistanis, this past year will be remembered very differently.

Drones, floods, economic misery, developmental challenges and a fraught relationship with the US will stick in the memory of Pakistanis. While in the West, 2011 will be remembered as the year the US killed Osama bin Laden — only 50 kilometres from the Pakistani capital.

Read more…

North Korean realities

This file picture taken by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on 1 January 2012 shows new North Korean leader Kim Jong-un posing for photos with soldiers of the Seoul Ryu Kyong Su 105 Guards Tank Division of the Korean People's Army honoured with the title of the O Jung Hup-led Seventh Regiment at an undisclosed place in North Korea. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

One of the more momentous changes in Asia that heralded in the New Year was the sudden death of North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, and the succession by his son, Kim Jong-un.

Kim Jong-il’s death had long been seen by some outside observers as portent for the collapse of the North Korean regime and the announcement encouraged much comment that reflected these forebodings, including calls for calm from political leaders who should have been in the know. Read more…