Author: Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard

Most observers judged as a failure the December meeting in Copenhagen of the Conference of Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). But then the usual way of judging such meetings is to look for a communiqué that voices sweeping aspirations, such as the G7 ‘decision’ at L’Aquila last summer to limit global warming to 2 degrees centigrade. In reality, without any evidence of countries agreeing what is each one’s share of the burden, such proclamations are worthless. Better tiny steps on the ground than giant flights of rhetoric.

Is there any sign of progress, even tiny steps? Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Ann Henderson-Sellers, Macquarie University

On February 18th 2010, Yvo de Boer announced his July departure from his position as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Mr de Boer has been the leader of the UNFCCC Secretariat since 2006, managing the organisational underpinnings of the efforts to bring together the world’s nations to forge an agreement to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

That his position was one of great stress was painfully demonstrated, in December 2007, when he left the final session of the 13th Conference of the Parties to UNFCCC (COP 13) in Bali in tears, following negative comments about the Secretariat’s handling of arrangements.   Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Ken Heydon, LSE

As the Doha Round flounders, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have become the centrepiece of trade diplomacy. The annual average number of PTA notifications since the WTO was established has been 20, compared with an annual average of less than three, during the four and a half decades of the GATT.

Such agreements, which now account for over half of world trade, share a number of characteristics. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Yoichi Funabashi

This year will be the crucial test of whether the administration led by the Democratic Party of Japan can develop into a vigorous, staying force. Its greatest challenges lie in the areas of diplomacy and national security.

On January 4th, in his first news conference of the year, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said, ‘About half of domestic politics is, in a sense, taken up by foreign affairs and national security.’ Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Andrew Elek

The intense climate change negotiations in Copenhagen are over. The outcome is a useful step forward, but many difficult issues still need to be agreed upon among global governments, with no international framework for enforcing any binding agreement on who will bear the many, unknown costs of adjustment.

The messy UN process, involving over 190 governments, is not likely to agree on what needs to be done. Eyes are turning to the G20, with some expecting G20 leaders to negotiate the next steps.

The G20 can contribute to the task of limiting global warming. But G20 leaders should look before they leap into negotiation over climate change or anything else. They might well pause to think of the future of the new forum – and the many other issues to address in the years immediately ahead. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Reinhard Drifte

After the Koizumi era, particularly since the beginning of the Hatoyama cabinet, Japan’s relations with China seem to be improving, and both sides have made encouraging statements. Nevertheless, there are many contrasting developments that demonstrate the continuing fragility of the relationship.

For the Japanese, there is a feeling that somehow bilateral problems will be resolved because both sides agree about the importance of a good relationship for their own national interests, Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Peter Drysdale

The big news this week was the chaos over the negotiations on climate change in Copenhagen. Will Steffen was there and files this realistic assessment on whether the deal that was eventually done will generate sufficient momentum to continue to build through 2010 towards a much more comprehensive and effective agreement. His conclusion is that the jury is still out.

And this week, we begin the end-of-year, beginning-of-year series by leading analysts from countries around the region on what the year looks like in retrospect and what challenges there are looking at the year ahead. Over the next few weeks, along with our normal posts, we reflect on what has been a year of enormous change in the world and ahead, at a period of immense fluidity in which Asia seems bound to play a peculiarly important role. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Will Steffen, ANU

Not surprisingly, interpretations of the outcome from COP15 range from an outstanding success to an utter disaster, and everything in between.  Political leaders claim a big step forward towards climate protection, while the vast majority of the NGOs who flocked to Copenhagen blast the outcome as, at best, a wasted opportunity.

In many ways, views on the outcome of COP15 were strongly conditioned by expectations, especially for those who thought that the Copenhagen conference would ‘seal the deal’ for limiting anthropogenic climate change to a temperature rise of no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But a comprehensive, final agreement was never really in the cards, even months before the meeting itself. The real question was whether COP15 would make enough progress to build unstoppable momentum towards a much tougher, legally binding agreement sometime in the next 6 to 12 months. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Huw Slater, ANU

The hot topic at the Copenhagen UN Climate Change talks is the arm wrestle over balancing commitments between developed and developing countries. While at this stage, developing countries are reluctant to agree on binding emissions reductions, many academics argue the need for certainty of emissions levels for all. This may mean documenting developing countries’ policy measures, but it may also involve setting major players’ emissions trajectories, to arrive at an agreed global ‘carbon budget’. Developing countries’ commitments were included in the leaked ‘Danish text’.

From the establishment of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), discussions have revolved around  implementing the ‘common but differentiated responsibility’ principle enshrined in the Convention, and since then the Kyoto Protocol and Bali Roadmap. Read the rest of this entry »

Guest Author: Peter Heap, Barry Carin, Gordon Smith

Major international meetings rarely result in acknowledgements of abject failure. If the prospects for success look bleak, the job of senior officials and Ministers is to reframe objectives, lower expectations, devise productive ‘next stages’ or ‘roadmaps’, and generate hopeful if non-substantive declarations of intent. In the worst case, meetings can be postponed, or, exceptionally, cancelled.

The organizers of the United Nations’ Climate Change Conference do not have the luxury of cancellation or postponement. Yet it is necessary to consider alternatives if the conference indeed concludes fruitlessly. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Llewelyn Hughes, George Washington University

Newly elected Prime Minister of Japan Yukio Hatoyama made headlines at the UN General Assembly in September 2009, pledging his country to a 25 per cent cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. In doing so, he placed Japan’s negotiating position ahead of other developed countries’ at the 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15). The conference opened in Copenhagen on December 7.

The question is: why has Japan raced ahead of the United States and Europe? Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard

The climate change conference in Copenhagen is supposed to negotiate the successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. But negotiations have been blocked by a seemingly insurmountable obstacle. The United States is at loggerheads with the developing world, especially China – now the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) –and India. Fortunately, there might be a way to break through this roadblock.

On the one hand, the leaders of India and China are clear: They won’t cut emissions until after the United States and other developed countries have cut theirs first. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Jane Golley, Crawford

With Copenhagen just under way, there will be much finger-pointing about who is responsible for reducing global CO₂ emissions, and China is likely to be the number one target.

Yet a significant portion of China’s emissions are generated in the production of exports, to the developed world in particular. Should we be shouldering some of the responsibility for reducing these emissions through financial or other means, rather than playing a blame game in which Australia is far from an innocent bystander? Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Frank Jotzo, ANU and Salim Mazouz, Ecoperspectives

With the climate negotiations getting to the pointy end, there is attention not just on headline commitments, but on what countries might in fact do at home to reign in their greenhouse gas emissions.

Indonesia is in Copenhagen with an announced target of reducing emissions by between 26 per cent and 41 per cent at 2020, compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Behind the scenes, serious work is going on to identify policy approaches that can deliver on this goal.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance this week released a Green Paper on Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategies for Climate Change Mitigation in Indonesia. Read the rest of this entry »

Guest Author: Project Team of Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC), China.

The Kyoto Protocol, as ‘the first game in town’, represents significant progress towards reducing global emissions. Its cap-and-trade mechanism and flexible market-based implementation have been valued highly.

Meanwhile, its flaws have also been widely criticised. Particularly its small coverage and ineffectiveness, and the lack of incentive for countries (especially developing countries) to participate. To effectively fight against global warming, we need a more effective post-Kyoto architecture.

The DRC team has proposed an architecture that attempts to improve on these shortcomings. Read the rest of this entry »