Author: Satish Chand

Commodore Frank Bainimarama, the head of the Republic of Fiji Military Forces, the appointed Prime Minister (PM), and the Minister for another half a dozen ministries in his government, presented his vision for Fiji in an address to the nation on July 1st.  The Commodore espouses to have Fiji realise her potential, and possibly by September 2014 when the nation is gifted democratic rule.  Achieving the vision is a tall order, believing that Fiji is on the path to the above taller still.

There are many positives in this address titled the ‘strategic framework for change’.  For a start, the Prime Minister has covered hitherto uncharted economic territory.  Issues ranging from the deteriorating conditions within the global economy to the floods of February that had a devastating impact on sugarcane crop were canvassed.  Mention was made of the improving monetary and credit conditions to an ‘open skies’ policy to increase tourism inflows.  The PM emphasised that the focus of his government for the following three years would be the economy.

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Author: Satish Chand

Fiji was suspended from the Pacific Islands Forum on Saturday, the 2nd of May 2009. This decision was anticipated given that the military regime in Fiji had made clear of its intention not to pay heed to the ultimatum given by the Leaders’ following their meeting in Port Moresby last January.

The decision by the Forum, while understandable, is unfortunate. Fiji was a founding member and the late Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara an instigator of South Pacific Bureau for Economic Cooperation, the predecessor to the Pacific Islands Forum. The Secretariat is located in Suva. Fiji’s suspension is evidence of the fact that the Forum family has fractured.

The political problems in Fiji are hurting. Hurting Fiji foremost, and her neighbours next. Fiji’s GDP contracted by 6.6 per cent in 2007, and was close to stagnant in 2008. Poverty in the two years since the December 2006 coup is likely to have risen by a minimum of 8 percentage points. As of 2002, some 33 per cent of the population were poor. The figures for 2009 would certainly be above 40 per cent.

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Author: Stewart Firth, ANU

Fiji’s prime minister and military commander Frank Bainimarama has given his first extended interview to the Australian media since his dramatic seizure of complete power a few weeks ago.

On April 10, following a court ruling that his 2006 military coup was illegal, he abrogated the constitution, dismissed Fiji’s entire judiciary, declared a state of emergency, ordered soldiers into Fiji’s media newsrooms as censors, and said there would be no elections until September 2014.

Pictured in The Australian newspaper with a bowl of the traditional Fijian drink kava, and surrounded by his grandchildren, Bainimarama is engaged in a public relations exercise. He has called for an immediate face-to-face meeting with the prime ministers of Australia and New Zealand, Kevin Rudd and John Key, who, he says, do not understand what he is doing for his country. They are highly unlikely to accept his invitation.

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Author: Scott MacWilliam

The October 2008 decision of the Fiji High Court which provided support for the continued rule of Commodore Frank Bainimarama and the military was roundly condemned, especially by lawyers and academics. There was vociferous encouragement for a legal challenge to the country’s Appeal Court, although the capacity of members of this court to over-turn the decision and pronounce against the country’s military rulers was itself questioned.

Only a few people, including myself through this Forum, publicly warned that the legalistic condemnation was unwise. The reasoning behind the warning was that attacking the High Court’s decision in order to defend the over-turned government headed by Laisenia Qarase and the sanctity of the 1997 Constitution was not politically sound.

On April 9, 2009 the critics of the earlier judgment received what they had asked for. The Appeal Court over-turned the previous decision and advised the President to appoint an interim government. In the words of the judgment, such a government should be headed by a ‘distinguished person independent of the parties to this litigation as caretaker Prime Minister’.

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Author: Benjamin Reilly

East Asia contains three of the world’s semi-presidential democracies (as pointed out in the latest APEC Economies Newsletter here) : Taiwan, Mongolia, and East Timor. Each of these countries is an unusual case of democratisation: Taiwan is one of East Asia’s famous ‘tiger’ economies and the world’s only Sinitic democracy, but faces an ongoing crisis of nationhood; Mongolia is one of the few unambiguous cases of a successful transition to democracy and a market economy in the post-Communist world; while East Timor is both Asia’s poorest nation and its newest democracy. Prior to their democratic transitions, each was also under the influence of a large foreign power — be it Russia in relation to Mongolia, Indonesia in East Timor, or China’s claim to sovereignty in relation to Taiwan. This is not a propitious starting point for a transition to democracy; indeed, in different ways, each country seemed to lack some of the essential preconditions for successful democratisation.

Nonetheless, each has succeeded to the extent that successive free elections and peaceful changes of power have now occurred.As part of their transitions to democracy, East Timor, Mongolia and Taiwan each chose semi-presidential constitutions. Semi-presidentialism is an increasingly popular constitutional model which combines a directly elected president with significant powers as well as a prime minister chosen by the legislature. France and Portugal are long-standing examples, along with many new democracies in Eastern Europe and Southern Africa. In Asia, East Timor, Mongolia and Taiwan are all clearly semi-presidential in the sense of having ‘a popularly elected, fixed-term president existing alongside a prime minister and cabinet who are responsible to parliament’.

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Authors: Aaron Batten and Satish Chand

Much has been said about the financial crisis and its potential impact on PNG. Both the Minister for Finance and Treasury and the head of one of the country’s major superannuation funds say that the economy will be relatively immune.

Yet, the Secretary of the Treasury and now the Bank of PNG have voiced concerns about the negative impact of falling GDP growth, reduced export and Government revenue, and a reduction in foreign investment. What should we make of the situation in PNG, and how is this crisis likely to affect the country over coming months and even years?

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Author: Satish Chand

The third and final element of my proposal for assisting the Pacific achieve improved development outcomes involves underwriting law and order via the South Pacific Forum. Specifically, I am proposing a short-term, a long-term, and a bridging strategy to improve law and order within the island-pacific. The short-term strategy entails members of the Pacific Island Forum, as a collective entity, under-writing law and order in each of its member nations. This will require members first agreeing to a regional external intervention should laws of any state be usurped. This does not tread on their sovereignty since each individual state has the right to form its own laws; but then has to abide by these laws which have already been approved and legislated by its own legislature.

Credibility is critical for this strategy to deliver on intent. Multilateral commitment would be necessary for the above. The South Pacific Forum is the natural home for such an agreement. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Satish Chand

The level of access to basic services such as primary education and basic healthcare varies considerably across the nations of the Southwest Pacific. PNG ranks low, if not the last, on this count. Its geography in the form of the rough terrain and archipelagic nature, history in terms of a highly fragmented and sometimes strongly divided society, and climatic conditions which makes malaria (and other vector-born diseases) endemic to the nation is major handicaps to universal and effective delivery of basic services. The recent arrival and galloping spread of HIV compounds the problems many fold.

Education is critical for development. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Aaron Batten

Just like the 1990’s trust accounts are shaping up to be a defining component of how PNG manages its resource revenues in this decade. Unlike the 1990’s however current revenues are being channeled into numerous smaller trust accounts instead of the single consolidated Mineral Resource Stabilization Fund (MRSF). Has PNG learnt from its mistakes or is it heading towards a repeat of the past? To answer these questions it is necessary to understand why these trust accounts have increased so much in prevalence over the last few years and what implications this has for fiscal management.

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Author: Satish Chand

A recent report by the CIS, describes the emergence of a dual or ‘bi-polar’ Pacific where two groups of islands have displayed markedly different demographic characteristics and different employment social and educational outcomes. The conflict in the Solomon Islands, Fijian coups, raskol gangs of Papua New Guinea, and stagnation of Vanuatu are contrasted with the relatively high growth success stories of Cook Islands, French Polynesia, Guam, New Caledonia and Samoa..

So what can be done to help the Pacific correct its ‘bi-polar’ tendencies? Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Satish Chand

The recent Australian generosity to Nauru has the potential to reduce poverty and save the need for further transfers down the track. This would be the preferred outcome, but one likely to be achieved only if aid was effective in inducing development. There is no guarantee of that outcome. Worse still, large sums of unencumbered aid can undermine development by creating an expectation of ongoing support and the basis for a welfare state. As a taxpayer, I will be appalled by such an outcome.

What could be done to maximise the chances of aid being effective in inducing development? Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Benjamin Reilly (from opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal)

History has a funny way of repeating itself. In a little-reported development last month, Japan offered to contribute peacekeepers to the Australian-led stabilization mission in the Solomon Islands—the site of some of the fiercest fighting between Japanese and Allied forces of the Pacific campaign in World War Two. While the prospect of Japanese troops returning to Guadalcanal may raise eyebrows on both sides of the Pacific, this is a positive development: It signals Japan’s willingness to cooperate with Australia and other liberal democracies in securing regional stability—and to balance the growing weight of China.

Japan’s offer follows from the annual Trilateral Security Dialogue between the U.S., Japan and Australia, as well as the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation between Australia and Japan signed in March 2007.

Help is certainly needed in the South Pacific. The Solomon Islands government collapsed in 2002, necessitating armed intervention from Australia and other neighbours. Fiji still has not recovered from its 2006 coup, Papua New Guinea remains volatile, and deep-seated problems of weak governance, conflict and corruption afflict much of the region. For this reason alone, Japan’s willingness to re engage in the Pacific Islands should be encouraged.

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Author: Aaron Batten

PNG is often seen by Australia as a fragile state dependent on foreign assistance with limited economic prospects. It was even described some years back as being on ‘the brink of collapse’. Since 2002 however our 6 million northern neighbours have been experiencing somewhat of an economic revival. While this has been driven by surging commodity prices it has also been underwritten by considerable improvements in macroeconomic and fiscal management. GDP growth rates have been high and the budget has been in surplus for 5 consecutive years – a record for PNG. The question on everyone’s lips however is; is this trend sustainable?

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Author: Aaron Batten

The Brenthurst Foundation published an interesting Discussion Paper last week drawn from the 2008 Tswalu Dialogue on ‘Towards Conflict Resolution Best Practice’. The dialogue consisted of key leaders who have been involved in institutional development and conflict resolution across the African region.

Amongst the groups more interesting findings was the importance placed on seeing the resolution of conflict and progress in institutional development as a long-term process rather than an event in itself. The report also highlighted the ability of donor interventions to ‘freeze’ rather than resolve ‘conflict’ situations.

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