Author: Ernest Bower, CSIS

While the United States is unquestionably a Pacific power, it lacks a comprehensive Asia strategy. In fact, the US approach to Asia has focused primarily on Northeast Asia – Japan, China and South and North Korea. Appropriately, significant focus has also been given to India in the last five years.

But since the end of the Vietnam War, American focus on Southeast Asia has been episodic and crisis driven. While the US has a substantial reservoir of strength in the region, US policy has failed to connect the dots and develop them into a rational and well articulated strategy. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Peter Drysdale

Could it be that domestic pressures in the DPRK — in consequence of a costly stumble backwards along the tortuous North Korea road to economic reform — and coordinated negotiating pressure from the other parties to the six-party talks are opening the opportunity for progress towards a settlement with North Korea? Some are now arguing that the time to move forward again may have come. And a number of analysts are now focused on the retreat on retrogressive economic policies and the prospect of a North Korean leadership visit to China as signs that a moment of decision may be bearing down on Pyongyang. It is difficult to know what all this means, as Scott Snyder suggests.

We have gathered the best of the latest analysis to try to get a handle on what’s been going on and what it might mean. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: James Boyers, ANU

On September 5 2007, George W. Bush and John Howard signed a treaty to improve defence cooperation between the United States and Australia. Although signed over two years ago, the treaty has not yet been ratified by the United States or Australian governments. Recent developments within United States Senate indicate that it is likely to obtain Senate approval, and ratification shortly thereafter.

At the time, the treaty reflected the Bush administration’s especially close ties with the Howard government in Australia. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Takashi Terada, Waseda University

The visits of Japanese Foreign Minister’s overseas visits don’t usually elicit much attention from the media and public unless they are off to the United States, Japan’s only ally. This is partly because travel abroad is routine duty for the foreign minister and critical decisions on foreign policy are made by prime ministers. Foreign Minister, Katsuya Okada’s recent visit to Australia appears an exception since the Japanese media gave extensive coverage to the trip. This was for two main reasons.

First, Okada himself is known for his commitment to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation as his lifework, and he put this issue on the top the agenda for his visit to Australia. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: John W. Lewis and Robert Carlin, Stanford University

It is routine in US foreign policy for a pot not boiling over to be moved to the back burner. But precisely because the North Korean issue is not boiling, it might offer an all-too-rare chance to make progress with Pyongyang. Over the past several months, the North has signalled publicly and privately that it is in engagement mode. In Washington, arguments abound about whether or not this is a stall tactic or a trick, but we will never know if we do not move ahead with serious and sustained probing of the North’s position. So long as our government sticks to an all-or-nothing approach in terms of Pyongyang, the opportunity to advance vital US security interests in northeast Asia could be lost.

Underlying Washington’s current position are two beliefs, so firmly held that they approach dogma. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Ron Huisken, ANU

China’s fierce reaction to Washington’s recent confirmation of a US$6.4 billion arms deal with Taiwan was pre-meditated, not spontaneous. The deal itself has been around since 2001, and it was an open secret that the recent announcement was a matter of when and not if. This issue played out alongside a subsequent confirmation that President Obama would meet the Dalai Lama in his capacity as Tibet’s spiritual leader, a development that Beijing warned would threaten trust and cooperation with the US.

China and Taiwan have notched up some significant gains in the direction of normal dialogue and freer economic interaction since President Ma took over in Taipei in May 2008. Many commentators assessed that the ‘Taiwan question’ seemed to be more securely quarantined than ever. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Peter Drysdale

Next month Mr Obama will visit Australia for the first time as President of the United States. His schedule is still shrouded in secrecy but he is scheduled to address both houses of the Australian parliament in Canberra, following the precedents set by his predecessor, George W Bush, and President Hu Jintao of China. By any yardstick, this is among the most important events in Australia’s diplomatic calendar. Though the going might be a little rough for him at home right now, Obama is bound to be welcomed very warmly in this country.

But what is at stake on the visit? This week Hugh White reviews Australia’s relationship with America over the past few Presidents and Australian prime ministers and nails what he believes is the central question that the President and Australian Prime Minister Rudd must deal with. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Hitoshi Tanaka, JCIE

Over the past several years, and especially since September’s historic change of government in Japan, it has become clear that there is a need to reassess the US-Japan alliance to ensure that it is equipped to face the challenges of the 21st century. There have been changes in Japan that are now reflected in domestic politics, but we cannot ignore the fact that there have been important changes in the regional context as well. China’s rise is apparent to everyone, and there is now a consensus view that East Asia is becoming an engine of growth whose dynamism is benefiting the world.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has spoken frequently of two lofty concepts that arise out of a recognition that the regional context has changed: the desirability of forging an ‘East Asian community’ and the need to have a more equal US-Japan relationship. What is missing in this talk, however, is a clear articulation of how to link the goals of a strong and more balanced US-Japan relationship with a vision of regional community that is equipped to deal with the changes unfolding before us. Although some observers may see these aims as inconsistent or even mutually exclusive, they can be complementary. In fact, effectively coordinating them should be the focus of intense and forward-looking discussions between Japan and the United States. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Yoichi Funabashi

To mark the 50th anniversary this year of the signing of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, the two governments have declared their intention to ‘deepen’ the alliance. They aim to create a new vision for the alliance by November, when U.S. President Barack Obama plans to visit Japan.

But Japan-U.S. relations are experiencing a rocky patch, mainly due to Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s decision to re-examine from scratch a 2006 agreement on the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa Prefecture. In the United States, an increasingly critical perception has taken hold over what the Hatoyama administration is trying to achieve.

In an editorial on 28 January, The New York Times noted ‘there are worrying signs that many of Japan’s new leaders and its postwar generation don’t understand the full value of the security partnership.’ Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Rajendra Abhyankar, The Asia Foundation

Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ three-day visit to New Delhi last month not only bolstered India’s role in promoting security and stability in Afghanistan and the region, but also boosted bilateral defence cooperation and trade. His visit helps pave the way for President Barack Obama, who is expected to visit India this summer, and helps answer an important question the two countries have asked each other since India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Washington last year – Do we take a ‘strategic pause’ to heal some rising negativity brewing in the relationship, or do we look for the ‘next big idea’ to keep up the momentum?

In a clear push for closer bilateral military cooperation in the face of what Secretary Gates called the ‘greatest common challenge of terrorism,’ Gates’ visit highlighted the potential influence the defence sector can have on future bilateral relations. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Peter Van Ness, ANU

In East Asia, ‘the times they are a-changing,’ and the pundits are full of speculation about what the new ‘architecture’ for the region will look like. After the Democratic Party of Japan’s historic electoral defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party in August, the government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has the opportunity to take the country in new directions, but it is unclear whether it will have the vision and determination to prevail. America, the world’s only superpower, is in serious trouble, and meanwhile China is on the rise. The focus is on how relations between United States and China will work out, and a discussion of new forms of multilateralism. Often ignored in these discussions, however, is the key role of Japan. Japan is too rich and too powerful to be left out. Whatever the future of East Asia, Japan will have to be a founding participant. In my view, Japan is an indispensable power in the region.

The Japanese are worried about the rise of China, but they worry even more about how to manage their relations with their post-World War II security guarantor, the U.S. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Ron Huisken, ANU

The Australia-Japan International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament released its initial report on December 15, 2009. While the reaction, in Australia at least, has been subdued, The Australian newspaper has run two substantive reactions – both somewhat disdainful. One contended that that the report consisted of little more than naive noble sentiments thrown at intractable realities while the other insisted that the report dangerously discounts essential security functions performed by a credible U.S. nuclear deterrent.

Both reactions have merit, but neither engages the real issue. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Stuart Harris, ANU

The still highly complex relationship between China and Taiwan can be seen in the reactions of both countries following the Haiti earthquake. One Taiwanese and eight Chinese lives were claimed by the disaster, and both countries have given substantial aid (initially $4.2 million and $5 million respectively) as well as sent teams to assist with relief efforts. But so far there have been few, if any, signs of Chinese pressure to change Haiti’s diplomatic links with Taiwan.

This may be an attempt by China to live up to its role as a global power – after all, four of the Chinese casualties were members of the UN peacekeeping force. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Ben Hillman

After the deadly riots that engulfed Tibetan areas in 2008, one might have expected that the Chinese government’s first high-level conference on Tibet policy since 2001 would generate some new ideas. Instead, China’s leadership offered more of the same. Blaming outside forces for ethnic unrest, the leadership promised to ‘fast track Tibet’s development’ to achieve ‘lasting stability’—Communist Party speak for ‘throw more money at the problem’ and ‘come down hard on unrest.’

Over the last decade the Chinese government has invested massive sums in Tibetan areas—US$46 billion in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) alone, where just under half of China’s ethnic Tibetans live. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Amin Saikal, ANU

The battleground for President Barack Obama to fight al-Qaeda and its supporters in the Muslim world is wider than that his predecessor faced. Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq are no longer the only main fronts. Added to them are Somalia and Yemen, where al-Qaeda has gained unprecedented strength. The President says he will use all elements of American power to deal with the situation, but what are the implications of this for his desire to improve relations with the Muslim world?

The Afghanistan conflict has now become Obama’s war. Read the rest of this entry »