China prepares to take the wheel at the G20

Representatives from think tanks of G20 member countries met at the G20 Think Tank Summit on Global Governance and Open Economy hosted by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China on 30 July, 2015 in Beijing. (Photo: Renmin University)

Author: Adam Triggs, ANU

The G20 is often referred to as the world’s ‘steering committee’ and in less than five months China will be firmly behind the wheel. At recent G20 summits and meetings in Beijing and Shanghai, government officials, academics and business representatives were asking two questions: what should China do with its G20 presidency and what sort of leader will it be? Read more…

Will Xi always be obeyed?

A man walks past a billboard featuring a photo of Chinese President Xi Jinping beside lantern decorations for the Lunar New Year in Baoding, China's northern Hebei province on 24 February 2015. (Photo: AFP)

Author: Ryan Manuel, ANU

It ain’t easy being an autocrat.

Take China’s current President and Party Secretary, Xi Jinping. Since coming to power Xi has shown himself to be unhindered by former norms of collective decision making, and collective blame. Read more…

Credit where credit’s due for China’s economic authorities

A Chinese investor looks at prices of shares at a stock brokerage house in Haikou city, south China's Hainan province, 28 August 2015. (Photo: AAP).

Author: James Laurenceson, ACRI

Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman recently said with reference to China’s President Xi Jinping: ‘Are you starting to have the feeling that when it comes to economic policy Xi-who-must-be-obeyed has no idea what he’s doing?’ Read more…

India’s role in Asia may not fit ‘Indo-Pacific’ agenda

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) and China's President Xi Jinping wave to the press before their meeting in Xian, the capital of the Chinese Shaanxi Province, on 14 May 2015. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Hugh White, ANU

Many observers tend to assume that India will play a large and growing part as a great power in a wider ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategic system, that it will use its growing power to balance and limit China’s regional weight. But some caution is called for — although this outcome is possible, it is far from inevitable. Read more…

South Korea must confront structural problems in the economy

A delivery worker unloads boxes from a cart at a market in Seoul on 3 August 2015. Export success conceals economic weakness in South Korea, argues Seongman Moon. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Seongman Moon, KIEP

South Korea’s economic growth has slowed significantly since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The five-year average GDP growth rate was 7.9 per cent during 1991–95, but dropped substantially to 4.5 per cent for 2001–05 and then 3.8 per cent in 2006–10. This slowdown is closely linked to that in domestic demand. After the burst of the credit card lending boom from 1999–2002, growth in domestic demand has been close to zero and has even dropped into the negative. Read more…

China, India and global headwinds

Author: Alok Sheel, Government of Kerala

When the global financial crisis swept across the world in 2008, it was widely hoped that India would not be as badly affected by the external demand shock as China. After all, exports of goods and services accounted for about 40 per cent of Chinese GDP, and domestic consumption for around 50 per cent, while India consumed over two thirds of its GDP and exported only around 20 per cent. As things turned out, while both economies initially had a relatively soft landing, Indian growth has dipped far more sharply than that of China. Why? Read more…

Back to the future in managing the Chinese economy?

China's central bank raised the value of the yuan against the US dollar by 0.05 per cent, the national foreign exchange market said, ending three days of falls after a surprise devaluation. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Peter Drysdale, East Asia Forum

Those in the international policy community whose professional responsibility it is to keep abreast of political developments in China have been in a tizz over the past few weeks about the prospects of a return to the command economy. This might seem strange to the economic observer. The most vibrant part of the second largest market economy in the world, generating around two thirds of its industrial product, is its private sector. Read more…