China’s rising maritime aspirations

A Hong Kong activist stands waving in front of a Chinese flag as a group sets sail from Cheung Chau Island near Hong Kong on 22 September 2010 for a disputed island chain, amid an escalating row between China and Japan over the territory. The islands, known as the Senkaku islands in Japan and Diaoyu in China and also claimed by Taiwan, lie in an area with rich fishing grounds that is also believed to contain oil and gas deposits. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Li Mingjiang, RSIS

The recent annual sessions of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) — two of the most important political events in China — demonstrated the extent to which the country’s elite aspire to safeguard China’s interests in the East Asian seas.

But in his report to the NPC, Premier Wen Jiabao also vowed to prioritise efforts to improve relations with neighbouring countries. Read more…

The DPRK’s satellite launch: teasing opportunity from crisis

A North Korean soldier keeps watch on foreign journalists in front of the Unha-3 rocket at its launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Station in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province in the northwest of North Korea, on 8 April 2012. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Mark Caprio, Rikkyo University

The Korean Committee for Space Technology, the space agency of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), confirmed on 16 March the DPRK’s plan to launch a Kwangmyongsong (Lodestar) 3 ‘earth observation satellite’ to commemorate the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birth.

The proposed launch has been criticised as yet another disruption to reconciliation efforts on the Korean Peninsula, as the announcement came just weeks after the DPRK agreed to freeze its nuclear program and refrain from testing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons. Read more…

Indian Ocean: don’t militarise the ‘great connector’

Indian Navy aircraft carrier INS Viraat breaks formation in the Indian Ocean during Malabar 2007, an exercise involving the navies of the US, Australia, India, Japan, and Republic of Singapore navies. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Sandy Gordon, ANU

The Indian Ocean is Australia’s backyard — at least if you live in the west — and it plays a major role in transporting energy from the oil- and gas-rich Persian Gulf to Australia’s principal trading partners, China and Japan.

With each passing year, these and other East Asian powers become more dependent on the free passage of oil over the Indian Ocean. Read more…

Diplomatic currents running strong in the South China Sea

The aircraft carrier Varyag being renovated at a shipyard in Dalian city, China 19 March 2012. The Chinese navy will deploy it in the increasingly political arena of the South China Sea, the Shanghai Daily newspaper reported. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Carlyle A. Thayer, UNSW Canberra

Chinese civilian maritime surveillance vessels carried out a number of aggressive activities in parts of the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam in early 2011, raising regional tensions and sparking concern in the US and throughout the region about maritime security. 

This concern now seems largely abated, after diplomatic efforts produced a somewhat unexpected positive development. Read more…

The DPRK, the nuclear issue and the international community

Kim Jong un, successor to the late North Korean leader Kim Jong il (Photo: AAP)

Author: Colin McAskill, London

The death of Kim Jong-Il, and the dynastic succession of his youngest son Kim Jong-Un, brings negotiations over the DPRK’s nuclear program and objectives full circle.

When Kim Jong-Il succeeded his father there was then, just as now, no agreement in place that brought the DPRK’s nuclear programs and future ambitions under the auspices and supervision of any international nuclear monitoring authority.

Read more…

Time for a nuclear compromise with North Korea?

Monument to Victorious Fatherland Liberation War, with Ryugyong Hotel in the background. Pyongyang, North Korea, 2011.

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

Nuclear talks between the US and North Korea have resumed in Beijing, and a deal was announced in late February.

North Korea agreed to freeze its uranium enrichment program and refrain from nuclear and long-range missile testing. In exchange, the US agreed to ship 240,000 tons of food aid to North Korea. Read more…

International cyber war: limits and possibilities

Cybercrime computer security expert, Mikko H. Hypponen, giving us a great talk at TEDx Brussels on cyber security, online attacks, and the freedom of the internet. (Photo: Flickr user PhOtOnQuAnTiQuE)

Author: Andy Yee, Hong Kong

A recent Bloomberg report declared the China-based hacking of hundreds of US companies a ‘cyber Cold War’.

In August 2010, after Japanese firm Mitsubishi Heavy Industries became the subject of cyber attacks from China, one commentator in the Financial Times suggested that cyber threats might provide new common ground to re-energise the traditional military security alliance between the US and Japan. Read more…

Rafale deal reveals India’s political and strategic priorities

The Dassault jet fighter Rafale performs a demonstration flight. The Indian decision to select Dassault as the preferred bidder for a 126-fighter jet deal was largely based on a cheaper price tag than the Eurofighter Typhoon. (Photo: AAP)

Author: James Boyers, London

In August 2007, India began a tender process to acquire 126 medium-range, multi-role jet fighters to replace its ageing Mirage fleet.

In late January, the Indian government announced it had chosen the French consortium-led Dassault Rafale over the UK–German consortium-led Eurofighter Typhoon as the preferred bidder in the tender process. Read more…

Pakistan and the Afghan endgame: need for a rethink

Commuters ride past the sign post of the Pakistani Military Academy in Abbottabad on 27 January 2012. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Sandy Gordon, ANU

Washington has now moderated Secretary for Defense Leon Panetta’s statement that the US, as a fighting force, would be in the barracks by mid-2013.

US forces may now come out to fight as and when necessary until their departure at the end of 2014. Read more…

Asian security strategy: one hand not clapping

Philippine marines storm a beach with their counterpart from the US Marines Battalion Landing Team, 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit based in Okinawa, Japan, during the annual joint military exercise at San Antonio, Zambales province northwest of Manila, Philippines on 23 October 2011. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

The whirlwind visit of President Barack Obama to Australia on the way to the East Asia Summit in Indonesia last November, many believe, forever changed the Asia Pacific strategic landscape with a re-assertion of American primacy and power in Asia.

What was the thinking behind the moves that Obama announced in Canberra and how will it shape Southeast Asia’s strategic future? Read more…

Kim Jong-un’s regime: facing up to domestic challenges, China and the US

In this undated photo released by the Korean Central News Agency and Kim Jong-un waves at soldiers while inspecting a military unit. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Wei Zhijiang, Sun Yat-sen University

After the death of Kim Jong-il in December, Kim Jong-un has officially become the supreme leader of North Korea and the supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army.

This is in addition to his position as the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Korean Workers’ Party, which was announced in September 2010. Read more…

Pakistan: a tumultuous economy and divided politics

A Pakistani sweets vendor waits for customers at a roadside of Islamabad on 17 January 2012. For the fourth year in a row, GDP growth in 2011−12 will fall below its long-term growth rate. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Ishrat Husain, IBA, Karachi

Pakistan’s economy remained sluggish in 2011 due to domestic political instability, energy shortages, deteriorating Pakistan-US relations, global climate change and internal security concerns.

For the fourth year in a row, GDP growth in 2011-12 will fall below its long-term growth rate. Read more…

No resolution to conflict in southern Thailand

A group of Thai Muslims praying besides 22 unidentified dead bodies protestors who died after Tak Bai riot in Narathiwat province southern Thailand. An estimated 1,000 people have died in incidents in the so-called deep South of Thailand, in violence between Muslims and Buddhists. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Anders Engvall, Stockholm School of Economics

On the evening of 25 October 2011 the southern Thai town of Yala was shaken by a string of 30 explosions that caused great terror and loss of life. The following day the neighbouring province of Narathiwat saw a similar wave of attacks.

This latest bombing campaign was a stark reminder from southern Thailand’s insurgency movement of the seventh anniversary of the Tak Bai massacre. Read more…

Local trends in Indonesian terrorism

Indonesian police chief General Timur Pradopo (top R) inspects Kopassus troops, special forces of the Indonesian army, during the opening ceremony of a joint anti-terror drill at the national police special operations force headquarters in Kelapa Dua, Depok-West Java, on 25 October 2011. (Photo: AAP)

Authors: Greg Fealy and Sally White, ANU

Australia’s first academic conference on Indonesian terrorism was held at the Australian National University (ANU) early in December.

Entitled ‘Indonesian Terrorism in a Global Context’, the conference brought together researchers specialising in the study of Indonesia’s jihadists and scholars working on global trends in terrorism. Read more…