Taiwan’s vote and its international implications

Pasuya Yao (C), director of the Taiwan Government Information Office, points to an advertisement for the 13th bid to join the United Nations by Taiwan. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Nitin Pai, Takshashila Institution

Taiwan’s presidential elections, since they first started in 1996, have in large part been referenda on the ‘One China’ policy.

Voters are generally offered two deviations from the status quo — either a path toward eventual reunification with mainland China or a path toward independence. Read more…

America’s threat to trans-Pacific trade

Chinese President Hu Jintao is pictured during his meeting with President Barack Obama at the APEC Summit in Honolulu, Saturday 12 November 2011. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Jagdish N. Bhagwati, Columbia University and CFR

As if undermining the WTO’s Doha Round of global free-trade talks was not bad enough (the last ministerial meeting in Geneva produced barely a squeak), the US has compounded its folly by actively promoting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

President Barack Obama announced this with nine Asian countries during his recent trip to the region. Read more…

Trans-Pacific Partnership: a real hope

Japan Obama Asia APEC Summit

Author: Hubert Wu, University of Melbourne

It is wrong to assess the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) against its short-term benefits — these may very well be non-existent. Instead, the deal’s true value hinges upon its chances of a medium-term expansion into Asia.

The TPP is an ambitious regional trade agreement under negotiation between ten economies: Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US, Vietnam and as of early November, Japan. The Agreement has concluded its ninth round of negotiations in Lima, Peru, with an unofficial round also occurring recently at the 2011 APEC summit in Hawaii.

Read more…

Pakistan–United States relations at the brink

Pakistani protesters carry an effigy representing NATO on a bicycle as they shout slogans during a demonstration in Islamabad on 8 December 2011 against the cross-border NATO air strike on Pakistani troops. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Alicia Mollaun, ANU

This year will be remembered as annus horribilis for Pakistan–United States relations.

CIA contractor Raymond Davis kicked off the downward slide when he gunned down two Pakistanis in Lahore, creating an enormous diplomatic immunity circus, which saw the media, politicians and even President Obama entering the fray. Read more…

US, China and Australia’s Asian century: a view on Hugh White’s argument

An Australian soldier (second from left) helps explain to US troops Australian fighting procedures while in training at Robertson Barracks in Darwin, Thursday, 1 Dec. 2011. There are plans for the number of US marines based in the city to rise to 2500 by 2017. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Brad Glosserman, CSIS, Washington DC

‘No, thanks’.

That, in summary, is Hugh White’s response to the recent announcement that the US would be sending marines on permanent rotation to Darwin.

White is Professor of Strategic Studies at the ANU, one of Asia’s most distinguished strategists, and a former Australian deputy secretary of defence. And he has been making the case for strategic reorientation in Canberra for a couple of years now. Read more…

Obstacles to closer India–US relations

President Barack Obama listens as Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reads his toast during a State Dinner on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Vikas Kumar, Azim Premji University

During her last visit to India in July, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged India to play a bigger role in Asia.

While this predates Clinton’s more recent suggestion that India, China and the US should work more closely together, it is still widely believed that heightened India–US cooperation is aimed at encircling China. And it appears the symbolic element of official India–US interactions is often mistaken for a sustainable strategic relationship. Read more…

US, China role play for ASEAN

US President Barack Obama looks on as Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard addresses the troops at RAAF base Darwin, on Thursday, 17 November 2011. President Obama praised Australian troops as among the toughest in the world as a rapturous send-off from Darwin capped off his Australian visit. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Donald K. Emmerson, Stanford University

Southeast Asian policy makers looking north to the Asian mainland and east across the Pacific see two major assets to their region: China’s biggest-in-the-world economy and America’s best-in-the-world military.

Of course, America is still important to Southeast Asia’s economy: the US and China each imported 10.1 per cent of the total value of ASEAN’s exports in 2009; and accounted for almost identical shares of FDI inflows into ASEAN: 10.8 per cent and 10.4 per cent respectively.

Read more…

Europe in the Pacific century

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton arrive to speak to the press following talks at the State Department in Washington on 11 July 2011. From the speech Secretary Clinton gave in Honolulu earlier this month, unless Europe is involved in Asia it will not have a meaningful say in the future of politics. (Photo:AAP)

Author: Frans-Paul van der Putten, Clingendael

This century will be America’s Pacific century, wrote US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the November issue of Foreign Policy.

As she put it: ‘The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the centre of the action’. Read more…

Behind Australia’s India uranium sale decision

An aerial view of the Ranger Uranium Mine 250 kilometres east of Darwin in Australia's Northern Territory. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Sandy Gordon, ANU

Australia’s Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, would have been more politically comfortable had she left the issue of uranium sales to India rusting in the ‘parking lot’.

 

The pressing question is therefore: why visit the issue now? Read more…

China, more like us

US President Barack Obama, Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard leave after the group photo session for the leaders of the East Asia Summit in Nusa Dua on Indonesia's resort island of Bali on 19 November 2011 following the ASEAN Summit. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

The whirlwind visit of President Barack Obama to Australia and Indonesia last week has, many believe, forever changed the Asia Pacific strategic landscape with a re-assertion of American primacy and power in Asia. Prudence might recommend a more cautious assessment.

American power is already well entrenched in Asia and the Pacific. Read more…

The United States and the East Asia Summit: a new beginning?

US President Barack Obama (R) listens as Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (L) speaks during their meeting on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia summits in Bali, on November 19, 2011. Obama held unscheduled talks with Premier Wen after a week of sharp exchanges between the two nations.

Authors: David Capie, Victoria University; and Amitav Acharya, American University

This week President Obama will join seventeen other Asian leaders in Bali for the Sixth East Asia Summit (EAS).

With a tough economy at home and the decision of the Congressional ‘super-committee’ on the federal budget only days away, this is hardly a good time for a US president to be out of the country. Obama’s decision to participate in the EAS for the first time in Bali is therefore a powerful symbol of a shift in American policy towards Asia. It also says much about the evolving nature of regional cooperation. Read more…

Obama and Australia’s vision of Asia’s future

President Barack Obama waves as he boards Air Force One at Hickam Air Force Base in Honolulu, Tuesday, 15 Nov. 2011, as he travels to Canberra, Australia. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Hugh White, ANU

As China’s power grows, the Asia we have known is passing into history, and a new and very different Asia is taking shape.

Barack Obama’s visit is a key moment in that transformation, because he is coming here to promote America’s view of how the new Asia should work. Read more…