Comments for East Asia Forum

Comment on The crisis of the Thai monarchy by Dundun

Dundun — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:43:52 +0000

The relationship between the Thai Monarchy and and the Thai Military can be best characterised as symbiotic, each leaching from the other to the tune of the law of diminishing returns.

I fear that in the next couple of years our worse case scenarios imagined for Thailand will not be enough to describe the rapidly approaching chaos, division and widespread violence.

If the future proves this prognostication wrong, I will applaud endlessly. If the future proves me wrong and there is no reform, there will be no tenable future to speak of.

Comment on Curbing corruption in China by Suzie Wong

Suzie Wong — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 07:12:39 +0000

Common sense seems to dictate that China’s reality is in contrast to May’s narratives. It is hard to imagine that a country widespread of corruption would be currently a country whose economy is as big or performing so well as is China’s. At the same time that I believe some cases could be true, I also believe it can happen every where as well e.g. Japanese politicians’ corruption scandals among the Liberal Democratic Party as well as the Japanese Democratic Party.

It has become common today to forget the fact that China has been providing assistance to solve the world financial crisis for both Europe and the United States. Only country with good financial system and transparency could become the richest country in the world.

For example, while we rarely admit as much, some people often take for granted that no one has the financial capability to rescue the European’s financial crisis whether the IMF, the ECB (European Central Bank), the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund), or the U.S. Federal Reserve, etc. Only the Chinese Central Bank has that financial resources to contribute to this. And the Europeans are asking China to lend that helping hands – Chinese hard working manufacturing laborers and farmers are being asked to support the European’s social programs.

Similarly, as the United States has been taking on the hegemonic responsibility in maintaining its national interest in the intrinsic Middle East region. China has been provided financial stability for the United States in terms of acquiring the U.S. Treasury’s bonds. And this cash is available to the U.S. government spending during the wartime without public accountability. In other words, “a Western-style democracy” like the U.S. also practices non-public accountability in the realm of national security.

Although China may still have many characteristics of a country in transition, China is certainly a country with maturity and responsibility.

Comment on Japan’s ballistic missile defence system by Corey Wallace

Corey Wallace — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:56:23 +0000

Good summary of the BMD issue – there is little discussion at the political level about the program in Japan as you point out, which is an issue considering it could have implications for collective self-defense prohibitions in Japan. One minor quibble: Late last year the Japanese government made an exception to the 3 arms export principles allowing the the SM-3 Block IIa missile to be re-exported for use within other MD systems. Subsequently the arms export restrictions were overhauled and revised, with the new guidelines allowing for all aspects of the BMD system to be exported to nations that Japan judges have sufficient arms control regimes and likely would be partners in creating a stable peaceful security order.

http://newpacificinstitute.org/asw/?p=9885

Thus as of this point in time there are no legal reasons why Japan cannot export BMD components or the whole system to Korea or Taiwan, although diplomatic considerations may well prevent such actions being taken.

Comment on The crisis of the Thai monarchy by chandran

chandran — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:17:59 +0000

I think at the end of the day, it’s not so much about the Monarchy-it’s about the Military not wanting to lose power. In a democracy, the Military takes instructions from a civilian government. But in Thailand’s case, the military hides behind the Lese Majeste laws to stay in power always threatening a coup. Until, Thailand’s military is put in its place, a government cannot do its work. This is going to be difficult for Thaksin and his merry men and women.

Comment on China’s regional and global power by Suzie Wong

Suzie Wong — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:00:55 +0000

Although the pace of globalization has made it easier for people to communicate internationally, direct communication may still be essential to promote cutting-edge knowledge and better understanding for scholars in world affairs. In my opinion, world affairs in the age of dynamic strategic landscape, thorough understanding of the complexity and multi-faceted of the game of world politics is important. What is needed is an awareness of global developments, an understanding of their meaning in its essence, and a development of the capability to adjust to change. Consequently, I think it would be beneficial for the U.S. and China if Chinese scholars specializing in international relations to have a sabbatical year opportunity to take a sabbatical year at any reputable United States university.

Comment on Sustaining economic growth in China by Erik T

Erik T — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:09:22 +0000

Perhaps skewed growth is a more appropriate way of describing it than imbalance. The down side is an unsustainable economy that results in serious over capacity within sectors or industries and misallocation of resources that impedes growth or may likely result in a hard landing.

Comment on Sustaining economic growth in China by Lincoln Fung

Lincoln Fung — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:51:11 +0000

I am sure that there are imbalances and some are serious ones in the Chinese economies, but balance is rare compared to imbalances and economic growth or even lack of it is mostly in an environment of imbalances.
I am in Australia and here the two speed economy and patch/work economy have become topical in recent times to describe the mining boom associated with the Chinese rapid economic growth on the one hand and the much slower growth and many difficulties experienced by other sectors such as retailing and tourist industries and less mining states such as Victoria/NSW.
This is despite that the Australian economy has been the best performer among the industrialised countries in the wake of the outbreak of the first GFC.
So, what conclusion/lessons can we draw from this good performance and patch economy for China’s imbalance for it to balance its economy?
Political economy always exists. Let’s not forget that even the conventional and standard trade theories have theorems on that.
In the international context, arguing for balance, while some having some points, cannot escape this kind of political economy. Protectionism can often be dressed to present an argument for balanced growth. But the world has never been a balanced growth, not to mention an individual country.
My point is that the imbalance argument has been too excessively overused to cause real damages to the world economy, just to save the few troubled economies.

Comment on Indonesia must choose its direction in 2012 by Ken Ward

Ken Ward — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:39:51 +0000

On the corruption front, the main revelation of 2011 was how corrupt the president’s own party, Partai Demokrat, had become. 2012 has brought no improvement. A PD politician, Angelina Sondakh, seems about to be arrested for demanding a pay-off from the Southeast Asia Games project. (In an unfortunate display of full gender equality in Indonesia, women are these days as likely to be arrested by the Corruption Eradication Commission as men.) PD General Chairman Anas Urbaningrum and his erstwhile rival, Youth and Sports Minister Andi Mallarangeng, are also reported to be jumping every time there’s a knock on the door. SBY has announced he’ll stand by Anas, at least until he too is declared a suspect. But it is in the president’s interests to bring about a leadership change in his party soon to stop the haemorrhaging of its public support. The latest poll has the latter down to less than 14%. Trials of its leaders, that could well drag out over 2012 and 2013, will further undermine its 2014 election prospects.

Comment on Indonesia must choose its direction in 2012 by Suzie Wong

Suzie Wong — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 06:50:45 +0000

Because corruption among the state institutions occurs not only in Indonesia but also in Thailand and the Philippines, analysts should look into the structural problem of the state in Southeast Asia. For example, two weeks ago it was discovered that a Major General of the Thai Army drove a truck loaded of drugs from northern Thailand to Bangkok using internal security plate. Also, the Hezbollah rented a police officer’s house to keep the bomb making ingredients. In order to explain similar patterns of corruption across the states in Southeast Asia, in depth comparative analysis of this issue would be highly valuable.

Even though President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, President Benigno Aquino III, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra entered office with the strongest backing from grassroots, they cannot exert much leadership due to structural constraints. There is a stark difference between developed and developing countries in terms of financial contribution to political party. When there is none in developing countries, how corruption could be avoided.

With the emphasis being put only on economic growth at the expense of intellectual development, countries in Asia and the Pacific are facing political tensions at a higher cost. For example, the Thai intellectuals are not allowed to think or speak freely due to lese majeste law; as a result, drugs and international terrorists are associated with the untouchable class in Thailand.

Comment on Taiwan’s election results raise Chinese expectations by Suzie Wong

Suzie Wong — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 05:59:30 +0000

Attempting to prevent a peaceful unification between the Nationalist Kuomintang Party and the Communist Party, the opponents have applied the strategy of making sovereignty not as an absolute but as a contested concept and third candidate.

No scholar studying Taiwan issue has opened new areas of inquiry to the emergence of ethnicity issue which aims to undermine Kuomintang legitimacy. To constructivists, power includes such ideas as legitimacy. Even though the emergence of the idea “Chinese versus Taiwanese” began since late 1980s, the issue has been largely absent from the analysis of “why” it occurred and “who” was responsible for it. While constructivists elucidate the source of power in ideas, most of analysts in Taiwan politics maintain their framework of analyses from the realists and neoliberal institutionalists. As a result, they can only report that the numbers of support to Kuomintang Party slightly decline but they cannot explain why.

In addition, constructivists show how ideas shape and change identity. It offers different explanations of change. Change can occur through diffusion of ideas e.g. “I’m a Taiwanese not Chinese.” Individual identity can be changed through ideas. National interests are the result of the social identities of these individuals in collectivities. Identity change occurs as the result of socially construct.

In my opinion, the issue of sovereignty, legitimacy, and identity regarding to Taiwan electoral politics must be solved with the same tools that the opponents used. “Like the realists and neoliberal institutionalists, constructivists see power as important. But whereas the former see power only in material terms (military, economic, political), constructivists see power in discursive terms – the power of ideas (Mingst 85).”