ASEAN a perennial quiet achiever

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders pose for the group photo after the opening ceremony of the 24th ASEAN Summit in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, 11 May 2014. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Rodolfo Severino, ISEAS

On 12 November 2014, ASEAN leaders will gather in Naypyidaw, Myanmar’s new capital, for their twice-yearly summit.

High on the ASEAN agenda for this November’s summit is, of course, the South China Sea. Read more…

TPPing APEC?

Chinese women pose for photos in front of a decoration for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Week at the Olympic Park in Beijing, China, 4 November 2014. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Jayant Menon, ADB

The race is on between the United States and China to dominate the rules-setting game for trade by being the first to be able to announce plans for a free trade area in the Pacific Rim. China hopes to use its position as chair of APEC this year to propose that a feasibility study on a Free Trade Agreement for the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), first mooted in 2006, be pursued. Read more…

The economic rules of geo-politics

A worker installs pipes in front of an APEC-themed parterre in Beijing, China, 26 October 2014. APEC was built upon the idea of open regionalism and reliance on the global trade rules to secure Asia's future development in the international economy. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Peter Drysdale, East Asia Forum

Regional economic cooperation in Asia and across the Pacific was developed around the idea of open regionalism and building the capacity for regional development in the global, multilateral trading system. Global institutions — the GATT and then the WTO — underpinned Asia’s confidence in deeper integration into the international economy and successful trade and industrial transformation through trade, economic reform and multilateral or unilateral liberalisation. Read more…

The economics of Asian geo-political stability

Australia's Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands after giving opening remarks before the Australia–China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue on 7 September 2014. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Paul Hubbard, ANU

What can economics tell you about the geo-political challenges in Asia? Many strategic thinkers focus on defence capabilities, ideology, politics, environmental threats or history to envisage strategic futures. Economics provides a lens to focus on the fundamental drivers of regional power relations. National income limits a country’s capacity to mobilise resources for power projection, and hence influence the regional security order. Read more…

Moving too slowly towards an ASEAN Economic Community

Container cargo ships unload containers at the Manila International Container Port in Manila, Philippines, 7 October 2014. Slow progress on the ASEAN Economic Community means it is unlikely to be established by the end of 2015. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Jayant Menon, Asian Development Bank

Launched as a political bloc and security pact in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, ASEAN has evolved to embrace an ambitious economic agenda. Its latest project is to establish the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 31 December 2015. But is this likely? The blueprint for achieving the goal envisages the AEC standing on four pillars and meeting the deadline depends on progress on each of them. Read more…

The ASEAN Economic Community’s labour policy needs work

Indonesian workers at a construction site in Jakarta, 03 September 2014. A recent publication by the International Labour Organization and the Asian Development Bank on six ASEAN countries found that, with the AEC in place, jobs in agriculture; trade; transportation; and construction would increase in all six countries by 2025.(Photo: AAP).

Author: Sanchita Basu Das, ISEAS

Driven by the looming 2015 deadline, discussion is heating up about the impact ASEAN’s Economic Community (AEC) will have on employment. Set to begin on 31 December 2015, the AEC envisions ASEAN as a single market and production base characterised by the free flow of goods, services, investments and the freer flow of capital and skills. Read more…

Is bigger better for ASEAN in a mega-regional world?

This photo shows a view of a container port in Singapore. Singapore is part of negotiations in both RCEP and the TPP, two mega-regional deals involving ASEAN countries. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Razeen Sally, NUS

Big-block trade agreements or ‘mega-regionals’, revolving around one or more major powers, are the latest trend in trade policy negotiations. ASEAN is involved in two: the American-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Chinese-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Read more…

Banking integration in ASEAN gathers pace

Bank employees count Indonesian rupiah notes at a national bank outlet in Jakarta, Indonesia, 6 June 2012.  (Photo: AAP).

Author: Thiam Hee Ng, ADB

The ASEAN Economic Community, planned to come into effect in 2015, is expected to liberalise goods, capital and skilled labour flows in the ASEAN region. While there has been considerable progress in the area of trade integration, financial integration still lags behind. The ASEAN Banking Integration Framework, which aims to liberalise the banking market by 2020, could help pave the way for further integration and the entry of ASEAN banks into regional banking markets. Read more…

Building Silk Roads for the 21st century

View of an elevated highway among mountains at sunrise in Chongqing, China, 19 July 2014. From 1992 to 2011 China spent 8.5 per cent of GDP on infrastructure. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Pradumna B. Rana, RSIS

China’s emergence as the ‘factory of the world’, based on its focus on exporting labour-intensive manufactures, is well-known. Less well-known is the role that infrastructure played in this strategy.

From 1992 to 2011 China spent 8.5 per cent of GDP on infrastructure, much more than the developing country average of 2–4 per cent, according to a 2013 McKinsey Global Institute report. And, from 1992 to 2007, China spent US$120 billion on building 35,000 kilometres of highways. Read more…

BRICS lay a foundation but will there be concrete action?

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives at Itamaraty Palace on 17 July 2014 in Brasilia. At a summit in Brazil the BRICS group of emerging economic powers created the New Development Bank to finance infrastructure projects. (Photo: AAP).

Author: Maria Theresa Anna Robles, RSIS

Unsurprisingly, the BRICS countries sixth annual summit in Brazil once again polarised public opinion. When the proposal for a BRICS development bank and currency swap arrangement was put forward in March 2012, the reaction was already divided. Some believed — including ‘rival’ international financial institutions (IFIs) such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — that there is room for such an institution to help meet developing countries’ massive investment needs. Others felt that, given the considerable economic and political differences, the feasibility of concerted action from the BRICS is limited. Read more…

China is a big winner from Thailand’s coup

Thai people are allowed to pose with riot and special forces soldiers at a 'Bring Back Happiness to Thai People' event in the central Lumpini Park once occupied by protesters, in Bangkok, Thailand, 15 June 2014. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Patrick Jory, University of Queensland

While the recent military coup in Thailand has drawn much of the world’s attention to the military junta’s suppression of democracy and human rights, it also has far-reaching geopolitical implications for the whole of Southeast Asia.

Read more…

Asia’s economic strategy beyond free trade agreements

This photo shows a bustling Singapore port. The 5th RCEP negotiation round will be held on 23-27 June 2014 in Singapore. RCEP, unlike the TPP, involves all Asia's major economies. (Photo: Jake/Flickr).

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

The launch of negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) (in APEC’s backyard led by the United States) and (later) the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) (under the umbrella of ASEAN) is dominating thinking about regional integration. These agreements are designed in part to leverage value out of the plethora of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated over the past 15 years. Read more…

RCEP will help get Asian integration back on track

Leaders from ASEAN pose for a photo during the opening of the two-day World Economic Forum on Asia Thursday, May 22, 2014 at the financial district of Makati, east of Manila, Philippines. (Photo AAP)

Author: Andrew Elek, ANU

Asian interest in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) process is rising. It is now perceived to be far better suited to Asia than the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is dominated by the interests of the United States. After recent failures to conclude United States–Japan market access negotiations, the proposed TPP is no longer expected to lead to comprehensive trade liberalisation. And, on closer inspection, so-called ‘platinum standards’ are seen to suit rich economies while limiting the ability of emerging economies to compete. Read more…

Cambodia’s betwixt and between foreign policy

Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, left, and Chinese president Xi Jinping shake hands before the opening ceremony at the fourth Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit in Shanghai on Wednesday 21 May 2014. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Leng Thearith, UNSW Canberra

Following the 2012 ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, the chair, Cambodia, was largely blamed for the ASEAN foreign ministers’ failure to produce a joint communiqué over the South China Sea dispute.

The sticking point was that the ASEAN claimant states — particularly the Philippines and Vietnam — insisted on using strong language to criticise China’s growing assertiveness. Read more…

Vietnam’s strategic outlook after Haiyang 981

Chinese citizens evacuated from Vietnam arrive at Xiuying port in Haikou, southern China's Hainan province on 20 May 2014. More than 3,500 Chinese citizens were evacuated from riot-hit Vietnam by sea, as Hanoi stifled fresh protests over a territorial dispute. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Thuy T Do, ANU

The sudden deployment of China’s oil rig Haiyang Shiyou 981 — and about 80 naval and surveillance ships to protect it — into Vietnam’s claimed exclusive economic zone in early May sent shockwaves through Vietnam. Images of Chinese vessels ramming and firing water cannons at Vietnamese boats flooded Vietnamese media, triggering a wave of unprecedented anti-China protests across the country and overseas.

Read more…