Indian Ocean: don’t militarise the ‘great connector’

Indian Navy aircraft carrier INS Viraat breaks formation in the Indian Ocean during Malabar 2007, an exercise involving the navies of the US, Australia, India, Japan, and Republic of Singapore navies. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Sandy Gordon, ANU

The Indian Ocean is Australia’s backyard — at least if you live in the west — and it plays a major role in transporting energy from the oil- and gas-rich Persian Gulf to Australia’s principal trading partners, China and Japan.

With each passing year, these and other East Asian powers become more dependent on the free passage of oil over the Indian Ocean. Read more…

Diplomatic currents running strong in the South China Sea

The aircraft carrier Varyag being renovated at a shipyard in Dalian city, China 19 March 2012. The Chinese navy will deploy it in the increasingly political arena of the South China Sea, the Shanghai Daily newspaper reported. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Carlyle A. Thayer, UNSW Canberra

Chinese civilian maritime surveillance vessels carried out a number of aggressive activities in parts of the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam in early 2011, raising regional tensions and sparking concern in the US and throughout the region about maritime security. 

This concern now seems largely abated, after diplomatic efforts produced a somewhat unexpected positive development. Read more…

Can China change its growth model?

Homebuyers look at models of a residential apartment project during a real estate fair. Chinese home prices are still far from falling to a reasonable level, and efforts to curb real estate speculation must be maintained or risk chaos and a property bubble which would harm the economy if it burst, Premier Wen Jiabao said. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

How many countries with nearly two decades of double-digit growth under their belt would look in the mirror and say: ‘It’s just not working anymore’?

I daresay, not many. But that is precisely what some Chinese leaders appear to be doing — a point most recently underlined in a new report, China 2030, published by the World Bank and China’s Development Research Center (DRC).

Read more…

Tibet’s suicidal politics

Portraits of Jamyang Palden and Lobsang Tsultrim during a vigil for Tibetans who have immolated themselves in protest against Chinese rule in Tibet on 17 March 2012. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Barry Sautman, HKUST

A wave of about 25 self-immolations in Tibetan areas of China has made the Tibet issue prominent again in global media.

Pro-Tibet independence groups say these successful — or horribly disfiguring — attempts at suicide result from ‘Chinese oppression’, and that the self-immolations have led to an increased security presence in Tibet and more repression of Tibetans. Read more…

ASEAN centrality: a year of big power transitions

Foreign ministers and government officials attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum in Nusa Dua, Indonesia on 23 July 2011. Clinton issued a warning on 23 July over tensions in the South China Sea while cautiously welcoming progress in efforts to restart North Korean nuclear talks. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Benjamin Ho, RSIS

Much has been made of Asia’s rise to global prominence and the continent’s increasingly important role in global politics.

But what does this mean for ASEAN, whose regional presence has also received growing attention from the global community of late? Read more…

China to the rescue in Europe?

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao listens with earphones during a press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on 14 February 2012. Chinese and EU leaders met for a major summit set to be dominated by the European debt crisis, as an increasingly worried Beijing considers coming to the rescue of the embattled continent. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

With the Greek rescue package finally in place, European leaders have, temporarily at least, succeeded in the job of retro-fitting the union with fiscal disciplines which impose more binding limits on national budgets and borrowing.

All but Britain opted in. The British government declared itself unwilling to yield British sovereignty. Read more…

Rising tensions in the South China Sea

Filipino protesters display their placards during a rally outside the Chinese consular office in Manila. The protesters condemned the Chinese military incursions into the West Philippine Sea even as they called for a peaceful resolution. The US supports the Philippines in its claim to certain areas in the disputed Spratly Islands. The disputed area is believed to be rich in oil, mineral and marine resources. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Vikram Nehru, Carnegie Endowment

Tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea following the Obama administration’s foreign policy ‘pivot’ toward Asia late last year.

There are many reasons for the pivot, but a principal motivation was to protect the freedom of navigation in the Malacca Straits and the South China Sea. Read more…

China and India: moving beyond the boundary dispute?

Governor of the Qinghai province in China, Luo Huining, shakes hands with Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna during a meeting in New Delhi, India on 17 February 2012. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Jabin T. Jacob, RSIS

In the 50 years since the 1962 Sino–Indian conflict over their disputed boundary, relations between the two countries have been radically transformed.

Bilateral trade is booming, while China and India are equally concerned over regional and global issues such as energy security, climate change, the reform of international organisations, and the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Read more…

China’s rebalancing will not be automatic

Labourers work at the construction site of Fengyu Bridge over Qingshui River on 18 February 2012 in Kaili, Guizhou Province of China. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Nicholas Lardy, PIIE

The imminent rebalancing of China’s economy has been forecast repeatedly over the past several years.

With the shrinking of China’s external surplus during 2011, proponents of this argument have all but declared victory. Read more…

Cambodia’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2012

Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna greets Cambodian counterpart Hor Namhong in New Delhi, 13 February 2012. The foreign ministers were attending the two-day dialogue between India and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). (Photo: AAP)

Author: Rodolfo C. Severino, ISEAS

For the second time in ASEAN’s history, Cambodia has taken over the chairmanship of this ten-nation association.

It first chaired ASEAN in 2002–03, when the country had been a member for only three years. Yet the world and the region have changed considerably in the last 10 years. Read more…

America and China: strategic choices in the Asian Century

President Barack Obama meets with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, on 14 February 2012, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Hugh White, ANU

Four months ago, as Australia’s parliamentarians rose to give President Barack Obama a standing ovation, it seemed they had already decided how best to navigate the profound strategic changes that must inevitably flow from the shift in relative economic weight from West to East.

Obama laid out in the starkest terms yet his determination that America will resist China’s challenge to US leadership in Asia, using all the elements of its power — including military force — to perpetuate a future for Asia framed by American values and interests. Read more…

US embargo on Iranian oil a blow to US-China relations

An Iranian security guard walks in front of the Mahshahr petrochemical complex in Khuzestan province. Media reports state that a bill to stop oil sales to European Union countries involved in the oil embargo initiative against Iran was ready to be approved by the Iranian parliament. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Kai Ito, ANU

Beijing has chosen to defy Washington’s embargo on Iranian oil.

While this does not bode well for putting an end to Iran’s uranium-enrichment program, the embargo also represents another worrying failure for US-China relations. Read more…

Xi Jinping goes to America, building mutual trust

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta shake hands before their meeting at the Pentagon, 14 February 2012. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Cheng Li, Brookings

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping’s current visit to the United States is important to both nations, but for different reasons.

Xi is expected to soon take over from Hu Jintao as leader of the world’s most populous country and second-largest economy. Read more…

Is China’s economy changing course?

A woman walks past a huge banner of gleaming skyscrapers in Beijing, China on 8 February 2012. Changes in the Chinese labour and capital markets are having a positive impact on consumption because higher wages and interest income both lift household income and improve income distribution. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

The debate about rebalancing China’s economy so that growth is driven more by domestic consumption than by investment and exports intensified with the onset of the global financial crisis.

China’s high level of net savings and external surpluses, and industrial-country reliance on the cheap international capital that accompanied them, was no longer sustainable. Read more…

China’s economic rebalancing already underway

Chinese customers line up to buy food at a supermarket in Huaibei city, east Chinas Anhui province on 12 January 2012. Boosting domestic consumption has been a key government policy in trying to rebalance the economy. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Yiping Huang, Peking University

The international community, and particularly policy makers in the United States, put great expectations on the contribution that China can make to global economic recovery by rebalancing its economy through promoting consumption growth.

The Chinese authorities broadly accept this priority and have put in place a number of policy measures that aim to achieve it. Read more…