Central Asia in 2011: a deceptive calm?

The leaders of the ex-Soviet states take part in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) narrow format summit in the Moscow Kremlin, on December 20, 2011. Shown clockwise (L-R) are: Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev,  Kyrgyzstan President Almazbek Atambaev, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Tajikistan President Emomali Rakhmon, Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov (partly hidden), Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, CSTO Chariman Nikolai Bordyuzha. 2011 marked 20 years since independence for the five Central Asian republics. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Kirill Nourzhanov, ANU

Central Asia had a relatively tranquil year in 2011. None of the five former Soviet republics constituting the region experienced regime change, civil conflict or economic meltdown — which is an achievement in its own right compared to the preceding tumultuous decade.

Authoritarian super-presidential regimes continued to muddle through in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan seemingly unperturbed by the Arab Spring or any form of organised opposition. Read more…

Malaysia’s fiscal and political uncertainties continue through 2011

A delegate waves the party's flag during the Malaysia's ruling party United Malays National Organization (UMNO) general assembly in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. (Photo AAP/Lai Seng Sin)

Author: Mohamed Ariff, INCEIF

After registering an impressive 7.2 per cent growth in 2010, the Malaysian economy visibly slowed down in 2011. GDP growth moderated to 5 per cent in the first half of the year, due mainly to sluggish export growth, but increased to 5.8 per cent growth in the third quarter, thanks to commodity exports and domestic demand.

Manufactured exports, the main driver of growth, did not fare well over the year, owing to depressed demand conditions in the US and EU. Read more…

The Indonesian economy in 2011: a precarious balance

Workers prepare iron reinforcement bars at the construction site for an elevated road way in Jakarta on 14 April, 2011. Indonesia hosted an interanational infrastructure conference in the capital that week in an effort to attract foreign investors. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Thee Kian Wie, LIPI

Indonesia’s economic growth remained strong in 2011 despite continued turmoil in the international financial markets, due to the euro crisis, and weakened global growth.

Significantly, this slow down also affected China, which has become one of Indonesia’s major export markets, but Jakarta was able to see off this risk. Read more…

China: will 2012 be a replay of 2009?

Chinese investors look at share prices (red for price rising) at a stock brokerage house in Nanjing, east Chinas Jiangsu province, 30 December 2011. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Yiping Huang, Peking University

China’s economic developments in 2011 closely resembled those of 2008: over-heating at the beginning of the year; moderating due to policy tightening around mid-year; and decelerating as a result of external recession before year’s end.

But 2012 will probably not be a replay of 2009, as neither a hard landing nor a sharp rebound look likely this year. Read more…