Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Yoon Young-kwan, Seoul National University
After North Korea’s sinking of a South Korean frigate, Cheonan, and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, inter-Korean relations did not improve much in 2011.
There was limited official contact between the South and the North and between the US and the North to discuss the possible resumption of Six-Party Talks or food aid. Read more…
Author: Scott A. Snyder, CFR
North Korea’s leadership succession from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un has gone according to script.
The Korean Workers’ Party and the Korean People’s Army are supporting Kim Jong-un as North Korea’s new leader and North Korea’s propaganda machine has not missed a beat in announcing new titles, manufacturing accomplishments and portraying Kim Jong-un as a Great Successor worthy of the name. Read more…
Author: Alexander Vorontsov, Russian Academy of Sciences
The grand funeral ceremony for Kim Jong-il was completed earlier this month, and North Korea’s new leader, Kim Jong-un, was officially sworn in.
The event clearly opened a new chapter in North Korea’s history. Read more…
Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum
One of the more momentous changes in Asia that heralded in the New Year was the sudden death of North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, and the succession by his son, Kim Jong-un.
Kim Jong-il’s death had long been seen by some outside observers as portent for the collapse of the North Korean regime and the announcement encouraged much comment that reflected these forebodings, including calls for calm from political leaders who should have been in the know. Read more…
Authors: John Delury and Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University
Kim Jong-il’s sudden death spurred yet another round of fevered speculation over the DPRK’s imminent demise.
Some analysts gave the North Korean state only a matter of months to live, and renewed calls on Beijing to engage in ‘contingency planning’ with Washington and Seoul to pre-empt catastrophe when collapse finally comes. Read more…
Author: Ruediger Frank, University of Vienna
Kim Jong-il is no more. The state news agency KCNA reported that he died on his train on Saturday 17 December 2011. This is the official version (now doubted internationally) that observers of North Korea have actually seen under preparation for quite a while, including in works of art that were discussed here.
Author: Geoffrey K. See, Choson Exchange
My team was finalising our 2012 program plans for North Korea exchanges — preparing to implement workshops on fiscal strategy and financial sector development, as well as discussing the potential of an economic think tank comprised of policy makers — and in close contact with our local partners shortly before Kim Jong-il’s passing.
These were all very interesting ideas because our North Korean partners were driving them, rather than us. Now, programs will be delayed and disrupted. Read more…
Authors: Peter Hayes, Scott Bruce, and David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute
When North Korean leader and founding father Kim Il Sung died in July 1994, his son Kim Jong Il had effectively held the reins of power since 1981.
The problem with Kim Jong Il dying during an ‘on the spot guidance’ on December 17 — as announced by the North Korean official media on December 19 — is that not much is known about his third son and designated 27-year-old successor, Kim Jong Un. Read more…
Authors: Geoffrey K. See and Andray Abrahamian, Choson Exchange
Intra-elite competition for investments in North Korea, with multiple channels backed by different individuals at the highest levels of the North Korean government, has significantly increased in the last two years.
This competition appears to mark a shift towards increasing reliance on economic performance as a primary source of legitimacy for the North Korean government. Read more…
Author: Robert E. Kelly, PNU
President Lee Myung-bak’s October trip to the US represents an ostensible high point in the US-ROK alliance.
But there are cracks in the relationship, primarily on the American side. Read more…
Author: Aidan Foster-Carter, Leeds University
After three and a half years of a hard line with nothing to show for it except worsened inter-Korea relations, Lee Myung-bak is at long last executing a U-turn. Not openly and without fanfare of course; but the signs are clear.
In a speech in New York on 20 September, Lee sounded a note both old and new. As ever he stressed denuclearisation, but in a way which suggests this may no longer be a first step and precondition for progress. Read more…
Authors: Peter Hayes, RMIT and Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University
A declassified 1978 CIA report related to nuclear proliferation during the Park Chung-hee era shows that, far from making South Korea more secure, Park’s toying with the nuclear option made him an unpredictable and even dangerous client who needed restraint in the eyes of US policy makers.
The ROK’s nuclear ambitions, especially in the post-1975 period, resulted in the US threatening to rupture the security alliance if the ROK did not stop its nuclear intransigence. Read more…
Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University
North and South Korea held talks in Beijing last week, which means the next episode of the endless diplomatic soap that is the Six-Party Talks is approaching.
The official goal of these talks is North Korean denuclearisation. Read more…
Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU
In mid-August, the armoured train of the ‘Dear Leader’, Marshall Kim Jong-il once again crossed the Russian border. This time, he did not venture far: the summit with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took place in the city of Ulan-Ude.
Among other things, the summit produced a statement about a gas pipeline which is to go through the North to reach the South. Read more…
Author: Evan A Feigenbaum, CFR
Can the United States and China cooperate to forestall threats to stability?
A new CFR report, Managing Instability on China’s Periphery, asks this question in the context of fragile states and regions that share borders with China — specifically North Korea, Myanmar, Pakistan and Central Asia. Read more…