North Korea’s mixed signals: monitors, moratoriums and satellites

South Korean Army soldiers watch a TV news program which shows the North Korean Unha-3 rocket at Seoul train station in Seoul, South Korea, 9 April 2012. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Aidan Foster-Carter, Leeds University

On February 29 Washington and Pyongyang simultaneously and unexpectedly announced progress on the long-stalled nuclear issue.

In exchange for 240,000 tonnes of food aid, North Korea agreed to a moratorium on its nuclear and long-range missile tests, and on its nuclear activities — including its hitherto uninspected highly enriched uranium (HEU) program, a particular concern for the US. Read more…

North Korean satellites and missiles: advantage hardliners

A concert is held in Pyongyang in February 2012 to commemorate the birthday of North Korean late leader Kim Jong-il. On the screen is shown the rocket that carried a satellite North Korea launched in April 2009 (Photo: AAP).

Author: Andray Abrahamian, Choson Exchange and University of Ulsan

North Korea’s announcement of a satellite test planned for April has kicked up quite a fuss as governments try to decide how to respond.

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said it would be a ‘grave provocation’, while Japan’s cabinet secretary urged North Korea not to carry out the test, saying it was a violation of UN sanctions.

Read more…

Time for a nuclear compromise with North Korea?

Monument to Victorious Fatherland Liberation War, with Ryugyong Hotel in the background. Pyongyang, North Korea, 2011.

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

Nuclear talks between the US and North Korea have resumed in Beijing, and a deal was announced in late February.

North Korea agreed to freeze its uranium enrichment program and refrain from nuclear and long-range missile testing. In exchange, the US agreed to ship 240,000 tons of food aid to North Korea. Read more…

South Korea: a return to the Sunshine Policy could prove dangerous

Young, new, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un poses with sailors as he inspects Korean People's Army Navy Unit 123. (Photo: AAP)

Author: John Hemmings, CSIS, Honolulu

Some have speculated that South Korea’s electorate, unhappy with Lee Myung-bak’s handling of relations with North Korea, wants a return to Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun’s liberal policies — and with them, the Sunshine Policy, or greater engagement with Pyongyang.

With a new, young leader in power in North Korea, it would seem the right time to try something different — a new approach for a new era. Read more…

Political surprises dominate the Korean peninsula in 2011

Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon. The historic victory of Park over the ruling party candidate in 2011 is indicative of growing dissatisfaction in Korea.  (Photo: AAP)

Author: Yoon Young-kwan, Seoul National University

After North Korea’s sinking of a South Korean frigate, Cheonan, and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, inter-Korean relations did not improve much in 2011.

There was limited official contact between the South and the North and between the US and the North to discuss the possible resumption of Six-Party Talks or food aid. Read more…

Kim Jong-nam and the question of North Korea’s leadership stability

In a picture taken on 4 June , 2010 Kim Jong-Nam, the eldest son of deceased North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, waves after an interview with South Korean media representatives in Macau. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Scott A. Snyder, CFR

North Korea’s leadership succession from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un has gone according to script.

The Korean Workers’ Party and the Korean People’s Army are supporting Kim Jong-un as North Korea’s new leader and North Korea’s propaganda machine has not missed a beat in announcing new titles, manufacturing accomplishments and portraying Kim Jong-un as a Great Successor worthy of the name. Read more…

North Korea’s power transfer

North Korea's new young leader Kim Jong Un, third from right, watches jet fighters with North Korean officials at an undisclosed place in North Korea, aired Sunday, 8 Jan. 2012

Author: Alexander Vorontsov, Russian Academy of Sciences

The grand funeral ceremony for Kim Jong-il was completed earlier this month, and North Korea’s new leader, Kim Jong-un, was officially sworn in.

The event clearly opened a new chapter in North Korea’s history. Read more…

North Korean realities

This file picture taken by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on 1 January 2012 shows new North Korean leader Kim Jong-un posing for photos with soldiers of the Seoul Ryu Kyong Su 105 Guards Tank Division of the Korean People's Army honoured with the title of the O Jung Hup-led Seventh Regiment at an undisclosed place in North Korea. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum

One of the more momentous changes in Asia that heralded in the New Year was the sudden death of North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, and the succession by his son, Kim Jong-un.

Kim Jong-il’s death had long been seen by some outside observers as portent for the collapse of the North Korean regime and the announcement encouraged much comment that reflected these forebodings, including calls for calm from political leaders who should have been in the know. Read more…

North Korea’s transition: do not let contingencies distract from realities

This undated picture, released from Korean Central News Agency on 12 January 2012 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspecting the planned construction site for the Pyongyang Folk Park. (Photo: AAP)

Authors: John Delury and Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University

Kim Jong-il’s sudden death spurred yet another round of fevered speculation over the DPRK’s imminent demise.

Some analysts gave the North Korean state only a matter of months to live, and renewed calls on Beijing to engage in ‘contingency planning’ with Washington and Seoul to pre-empt catastrophe when collapse finally comes. Read more…

Death of Kim Jong-il: the rise of the Party

NORTH KOREA KIM JONG-UN

Author: Ruediger Frank, University of Vienna

Kim Jong-il is no more. The state news agency KCNA reported that he died on his train on Saturday 17 December 2011. This is the official version (now doubted internationally) that observers of North Korea have actually seen under preparation for quite a while, including in works of art that were discussed here.

Read more…

North Korea: new opportunities in a post-Kim Jong-il landscape

People bow their heads before a large portrait of late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, displayed in front of the Pyongyang gymnasium in Pyongyang on 20 December, 2011. (Photo: AAP)

Author: Geoffrey K. See, Choson Exchange

My team was finalising our 2012 program plans for North Korea exchanges — preparing to implement workshops on fiscal strategy and financial sector development, as well as discussing the potential of an economic think tank comprised of policy makers — and in close contact with our local partners shortly before Kim Jong-il’s passing.

These were all very interesting ideas because our North Korean partners were driving them, rather than us. Now, programs will be delayed and disrupted. Read more…

Kim Jong Il’s death: continuity plus opportunity to engage

North Korean heir-apparent Kim Jong Un. His father, Kim Jong-il, died on Saturday, 17 December, 2011. (Photo: AAP)

Authors: Peter Hayes, Scott Bruce, and David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute

When North Korean leader and founding father Kim Il Sung died in July 1994, his son Kim Jong Il had effectively held the reins of power since 1981.

The problem with Kim Jong Il dying during an ‘on the spot guidance’ on December 17 — as announced by the North Korean official media on December 19 — is that not much is known about his third son and designated 27-year-old successor, Kim Jong Un. Read more…

Economic performance and legitimacy in North Korea

Kim Jong-il and his heir apparent son Kim Jong-un clap during a grand evening gala at the Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang on 11 October. The gala celebrated the 65th anniversary of the Workers Party of Korea. The anniversary is closely watched as the North seeks to bolster the standing of the young heir apparent in a country with a broken economy and nuclear weapons. (Photo: AAP)

Authors: Geoffrey K. See and Andray Abrahamian, Choson Exchange

Intra-elite competition for investments in North Korea, with multiple channels backed by different individuals at the highest levels of the North Korean government, has significantly increased in the last two years.

This competition appears to mark a shift towards increasing reliance on economic performance as a primary source of legitimacy for the North Korean government. Read more…

South Korea changes course on the North: back to the F word

Ruling Grand National Party chief Hong Joon-pyo, second from right, looks at a North Korean worker during his visit to a factory in the inter-Korean industrial park in Kaesong, North Korea, Friday, 30 Sept. 2011. (photo: AAP)

Author: Aidan Foster-Carter, Leeds University

After three and a half years of a hard line with nothing to show for it except worsened inter-Korea relations, Lee Myung-bak is at long last executing a U-turn. Not openly and without fanfare of course; but the signs are clear.

In a speech in New York on 20 September, Lee sounded a note both old and new. As ever he stressed denuclearisation, but in a way which suggests this may no longer be a first step and precondition for progress. Read more…