Author: Peter Drysdale

Could it be that domestic pressures in the DPRK — in consequence of a costly stumble backwards along the tortuous North Korea road to economic reform — and coordinated negotiating pressure from the other parties to the six-party talks are opening the opportunity for progress towards a settlement with North Korea? Some are now arguing that the time to move forward again may have come. And a number of analysts are now focused on the retreat on retrogressive economic policies and the prospect of a North Korean leadership visit to China as signs that a moment of decision may be bearing down on Pyongyang. It is difficult to know what all this means, as Scott Snyder suggests.

We have gathered the best of the latest analysis to try to get a handle on what’s been going on and what it might mean. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Jonas Parello-Plesner

There are rumours that Kim Jong-il will visit China late-March. If the visit takes place, it must be after the 18 March when the joint US-ROK military training ends, which is regarded by North Korea as a prelude to war. The supreme commander can’t be seen to leave the country during that period. Alternately, the visit might be made by a top official in the North Korean system, such as Kim Young-nam. So, what should we expect from this meeting?

Broadly speaking, our expectations can be framed around Kim Jong-il’s promise to his people. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

Over the past year or so, something strange has begun to happen in Pyongyang. The North Korean leadership has taken some actions that have clearly damaged the interests of the ruling clique.

The recent currency reform is the best example of self-defeating policy decisions. For years, the Pyongyang government has waged campaigns against the unofficial and semi-official markets that have played a decisive role in North Korea’s economic life since the collapse of the state-run economy in the 1990s. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Scott A. Snyder, CFR

I’ve been watching North Korea ramp up efforts to attract foreign investment since Jack Pritchard and I heard last November in Pyongyang from the chairman of Pyongyang’s Foreign Investment Advisory Board a presentation of new laws that provide for repatriation of investments, tax benefits, and wages of 30 Euros/month that undercut the $57/month wage rate at the Kaesong Industrial Zone.

Although catastrophic failure of currency revaluation implemented from late November of last year has severely eroded the credibility of the government’s economic policies, there are serious efforts underway to realise new foreign investment at Rajin-Sonbong port at the northeastern tip of North Korea. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Aidan Foster-Carter, Leeds University

The past month saw both Chairman and Premier Kim doing something almost unheard of in Pyongyang. Apparently they both said sorry, although some reports got the two muddled up.

On February 1, Rodong Sinmun, daily paper of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), reported Kim Jong-il as lamenting his failure to fulfil his late father Kim Il-sung’s pledge, to which he had also alluded shortly before on January 9, that all North Koreans would eat rice and meat soup (everyday fare for even the poorest South Korean, be it noted). Read the rest of this entry »

Author: John W. Lewis and Robert Carlin, Stanford University

It is routine in US foreign policy for a pot not boiling over to be moved to the back burner. But precisely because the North Korean issue is not boiling, it might offer an all-too-rare chance to make progress with Pyongyang. Over the past several months, the North has signalled publicly and privately that it is in engagement mode. In Washington, arguments abound about whether or not this is a stall tactic or a trick, but we will never know if we do not move ahead with serious and sustained probing of the North’s position. So long as our government sticks to an all-or-nothing approach in terms of Pyongyang, the opportunity to advance vital US security interests in northeast Asia could be lost.

Underlying Washington’s current position are two beliefs, so firmly held that they approach dogma. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

One thing is apparent: the great love affair between Europe and China is over.

Here in London and throughout the other major capitals of Europe, Copenhagen was the final straw for European policy-makers who advocated engagement with China, with their ideal of building China into the global order on ice. As Francois Gotement of the European Council on Foreign Relations notes, before Copenhagen, European thinkers still believed that they could use soft power to influence China on a host of issues that Europe believed were mutual to both. After Copenhagen, European attitudes have hardened and governments are reconsidering their approach to China. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Bradley O. Babson, NCNK

Politics and economics are deeply entwined in North Korea. Thus, interpretation of the intentions and implications of North Korean actions must be assessed through both lenses. As it tries to address economic development and security challenges, North Korea has to find a way to make internal changes that will yield results while maintaining political control and regime legitimacy.

At the same time, Pyongyang has to improve its external relations in ways that enhance its economy and security, but this will require more openness and commitment to compliance with international norms. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Ron Huisken, ANU

The Australia-Japan International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament released its initial report on December 15, 2009. While the reaction, in Australia at least, has been subdued, The Australian newspaper has run two substantive reactions – both somewhat disdainful. One contended that that the report consisted of little more than naive noble sentiments thrown at intractable realities while the other insisted that the report dangerously discounts essential security functions performed by a credible U.S. nuclear deterrent.

Both reactions have merit, but neither engages the real issue. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: James Lister, Korea Economic Institute

Free elections are not part of North Korea’s political fabric, but Kim Jong-Il and his advisors are undoubtedly aware that the regime’s legitimacy will be challenged if it fails to meet its promise of achieving a strong and prosperous nation by 2012, particularly if it faces a leadership transition. The November 30 announcement of currency reform, entailing redenomination of the North Korean won such that 100 old won = 1 new won, appears to be a gamble that it can achieve that objective in an ideologically acceptable manner. It is a huge bet.

As clarified and adjusted over the course of the subsequent weeks (according to press reports, as official announcements remain lacking) the measures required residents to exchange old won for new won currency up to a limit of 500,000 old won per individual—equivalent to US$200 or less at unofficial market rates. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Yoon Young-kwan, Seoul National University, Korea

With the backdrop of global economic crisis, the Korean economy also experienced serious decline. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the economic growth rate fell by 5.1 per cent compared to the previous quarter. However, the economy returned to positive growth in the first quarter of 2009 and recovered to pre-crisis rates of 2.6 percent and 3.2 per cent in the second and third quarters. The Korean economy is recuperating faster than any other OECD country, except Australia, and the IMF expects 4.5 per cent growth in 2010. Though there were some discussions recently inside the government about the exit strategy, President Lee Myung-bak opted for a cautious approach.

In contrast to a positive economic performance, domestic politics in South Korea remained turbulent in 2009 if not more so than in the previous year. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Scott Snyder, Asia Foundation, Korea

Every North Korean seems to have been mobilized for an all-out push to mark their country’s arrival as a ’strong and powerful nation’ in 2012, which marks the 100^th anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s birth, Kim Jong Il’s 70^th birthday, and the 30^th birthday of Kim Jong Il’s third son and reported successor, Kim Jong-Eun.  Pyongyang citizens have cleaned up the city during a 150-day labor campaign, followed by a second 100-day campaign now underway.  The Ryugyong Hotel in the middle of Pyongyang, unfinished for over two decades, has been given a facelift courtesy of the Egyptian telecommunications firm Orascom, which expects to have 100,000 mobile phone customers in Pyongyang by the end of the year.  But it is still difficult to shake the feeling in Pyongyang that one has walked onto a movie set in between takes.  Or that the used car l ooks good on the outside, but you really don’t know what you might find if you were able to look under the hood or give it a test-drive.

North Korean foreign ministry officials seem to have moved on from nuclear talks, although they make it clear their outrage at United Nations condemnation of their April multi-stage rocket launch as an affront to their sovereignty.   Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Amy King, Oxford

Obama’s first visit to Asia as President has attracted widespread criticism. On everything from his decision to bow to the Japanese emperor, to his failure to achieve concessions from China on climate change and human rights, US press coverage in particular has characterised the visit as a failure (although James Fallows has attacked the mainstream US press for ‘manufacturing’ this failure).

Yet on North Korea, the Obama administration has achieved some success. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University

North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons, but it makes sense for the United States to continue talks now with a more realistic understanding of the North’s strategies and goals.

President Barack Obama arrived in Seoul last Wednesday for a summit meeting with President Lee Myung-bak. No doubt, North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme will play a major role in the forthcoming negotiations. Read the rest of this entry »

Author: Jonas Parello-Plesner

Relations with North Korea seem heeded in a more positive direction after the Chinese PM Wen’s visit to Pyongyang, President Hu’s talk with Kim’s envoy and after the informal meeting between State Department official, Sung Kim and North Korean nuclear negotiator, Ri Gun in San Diego at the end of October. Yet tensions are still simmering with the naval clash between North and South Korea Monday the 9th.

On top of that Obama is going to tour the region starting Friday. Read the rest of this entry »