Author: Christian Jack, Peking University

As China re-emerges, Australia will increasingly face tough decisions concerning its core strategic and economic interests.

ANU Professor Hugh White’s recent essay, ‘Power Shift: Australia’s future between Washington and Beijing’, published in The Quarterly Essay, has touched off a vociferous debate about Australia’s strategic future in the Asia Pacific. Read more…

Author: Andy Yee, Hong Kong

International relations in Asia last year were characterised by conspicuous territorial disputes in the South China Sea — between China, the US and ASEAN — and the East China Sea — between China and Japan.

No doubt, China’s growing territorial assertiveness is an important factor in these disputes, which are geographically close and driven by economic and strategic considerations. However, attributing such conflict as simply an inevitable consequence of China’s rising power would be to misjudge the nuanced state of international affairs, and its different dynamics. Read more…

Author: Aurelia George Mulgan, UNSW at ADFA

We now know, courtesy of Wikileaks, that the assessment of Japan’s DPJ, at the highest levels of the US government, was that it was ‘completely different’ from the LDP.

At first, this appeared to be the case. It was not just the Futenma debacle, although that was bad enough. Read more…

Author: Sourabh Gupta, Samuels International

On September 7th, in the ‘territorial seas’ of the Senkaku/Daioyu islands, a Chinese fishing trawler rammed two Japanese coast guard vessels with deliberate intent. While the trawler’s detained crew of 14 was released on September 13th after being questioned on a voluntary basis, the skipper was arrested on September 10th and placed under a court-authorised 10-day detention period while prosecutors deliberated whether to indict him or not. Following extension of the detention for a further 10-day period on September 20th, and with Beijing blowing a fit – and ties deteriorating, Tokyo made a political decision on September 24th to release the offending fisherman, though it was officially framed as an independent decision of the Naha District Public Prosecutors Office.

Basic Sovereignty-related Aspects of the Senkakus/Daioyus

Though under Japan’s effective control and administration, sovereignty over the islands is contested by both China and Taiwan. Read more…

Author: Aileen S.P. Baviera, University of the Philippines

Recent tiffs between China and Japan, China and Vietnam and China and the US concerning the status of disputed islands and waters in the South and the East China seas possess a significance quite distinct from disagreements of the past. More specifically, previous contests amongst coastal states for sovereignty, fisheries, energy resources and maritime navigational rights continue to exist, but they are now being overshadowed by the rivalry among major powers in pursuit of the broader goal of establishing, and expanding, strategic influence.

Fueling such tensions are China’s growing military presence and rising influence in the Asia Pacific, and a concern in Washington that Beijing may become a credible peer competitor sooner than originally thought. Read more…

Author: Ming Hwa Ting, University of Adelaide

Following Chinese restrictions on exports to Japan after the Senkaku maritime incident in September the spotlight has remained on rare earth metals. But it is difficult to ascertain the details of the restrictions as the Chinese government did not impose an official ban.

Disruptions in the supply chain, according to the Chinese government, were due to the private actions of rare metals exporters. In China, there are 32 companies with a licence to export rare metals, of which 10 are foreign owned. Although Japan’s detention of the Chinese trawler captain may have roused the ire of Chinese firms, it is hard to see why foreign-owned companies would react likewise. Read more…

Author: Joel Rathus, Adelaide University

Early last Friday morning, the video taken by the Japanese Coast Guard of the 7 September collision between the JCG’s Mizuki and the Yonakuni and a Chinese fishing boat, the Min Jin Yu-5179 was leaked to youtube by a user known only as Sengoku38. There is no doubt that this is the real footage.

It is ironic that the characters forming the name of the Min Jin Yu refers to the start of the Warring States period in Chinese history. This connection has been picked up by the leaker of the footage, whose name ‘Sengoku38′ means ‘Warring States 38’. The 38 in the leaker’s name may refer to events during the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1938, a disturbing suggestion of a neo-nationalist agenda. Indeed, this name seems to symbolize the possibility that this incident will mark the start of an adversarial relationship rather than simply rivalry between China and Japan.

What does it show? Read more…

Author: Aurelia George Mulgan, ADFA@UNSW

Japan’s new DPJ government initially set out to rebalance Japan’s relations between the United States and Asia by emphasising a more independent Asia-oriented diplomacy with an East Asian Community as the centrepiece.

Japanese rhetoric about the alliance has also changed: There was more talk of an ‘equal’ alliance and a security stance ‘equidistant’ between the United States and China. Read more…

Author: Satoshi Amako, Waseda University

Since the Senkaku Islands ship collision incident, media sensationalism has raged, and Japan-China relations have been greatly shaken. In the middle of this upheaval, which involved the cancellation of various Japan-China related events, I went to Beijing on September 26 to participate in the Japan-China-Korea Symposium hosted by the Chinese East Asia Forum. The keynote speech strongly urged that ‘given the current difficulties, dialogue between Japan and China is necessary more than ever. Cutting off dialogue will not achieve anything’. Almost all of the 150 participants enthusiastically supported the idea. The worsening relation is saddening, and I sincerely hope improvements can be realized as also did many of the Chinese participants.

So, how should we interpret the recent sequence of events? Read more…

Author: Yoichi Funabashi, Asahi Shimbun

I have serious reservations about the way the Chinese government acted toward Japan over the incident involving a violation of territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands by a Chinese trawler, and especially, after the boat’s captain was arrested.

In Japan, public opinion has been highly critical of the government led by the Democratic Party of Japan, with its decisions described as ‘a national disgrace brought about through diplomatic defeat.’ Admittedly, many measures taken by the government were half-hearted, from the lack of any decision by prosecutors to indict the captain, to the handling of a Japan Coast Guard video of the collision between the trawler and two patrol vessels. Read more…

Author: Joel Rathus, Adelaide University

Sino-Japanese relations have entered a dangerous new era. Previously, Japan was willing to take an unobtrusive and patient approach to China. But last month’s less than diplomatic arm wrestle over the fate of the arrested captain of a Chinese fishing boat in disputed territory in the East China Sea may have effectively ended Japan’s ambivalence toward China.

For better or worse, the only real chance for Sino-Japanese relations to become the fulcrum for a new East Asian century has resided with the DPJ, as opposed to the more almost cynical policy of the LDP which, when in power, promoted an East Asian regionalism excluding China. Read more…

Author: Neil J. Diamant, Dickinson College

The recent flare-up over the Diaoyu Islands—a Chinese fishing boat captain was arrested by the Japanese Coast Guard—has followed a well-worn script. An international incident, say, the publication of a Japanese textbook, the bombing of a Chinese Embassy or pro-Tibet protests in France or even a disputed football match, quickly leads to protests in China, which are quickly defined as ‘nationalist’.

The international press duly reports on outraged citizens shouting slogans, bearing flags, threatening boycotts and some form of retaliation against those who have dared to offend China (The New York Times article of September 19, 2010 features a photograph of a bellicose bare-chested man with a tattoo of the national flag). Read more…

Author: Aurelia George Mulgan, ADFA@UNSW

The dispute over Japan’s temporary detention of a Chinese fishing boat captain accused of colliding with two Japanese coastguard vessels in the territorial waters of the Senkaku Islands reveals the very shallow level of goodwill between China and Japan.

China’s official response to Japan’s actions was initially confined to action in diplomatic, cultural and economic realms, but the Chinese also threatened additional retaliatory measures if the Chinese fishing boat captain was not released immediately and unconditionally. Now that the release has occurred, China’s next move is unclear. Read more…

Author: Andy Yee

On 7 September, two Japan Coast Guard patrol ships collided with a Chinese fishing boat while they carried out ‘law enforcement activities’ in the waters of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Zhan Qixiong, 41, is now in detention by the order of an Okinawa local court, sparking demonstrations in Beijing and diplomatic protests from China. On the day of collision, China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu demanded ‘Japanese patrol boats refrain from so-called law enforcement activities in waters off the Diaoyu islands.’ Japanese Ambassador to China, Uichiro Niwa, was summoned four times over the incident, the last call being made by State Councillor Dai Bingguo.

Meanwhile, Mr Niwa showed no indication that Japan is going to back down, and maintained that Japan will ‘solemnly handle the case in strict accordance with domestic law.’ Read more…