Author: Joel Rathus, East Asia Forum

On 30 January, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) opened for business.

This new facility is mandated to provide surveillance for, and ensure compliance with, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM), a US$240 billion fund aimed at preventing a regional financial crisis in East Asia. But, how effective will it be? Read more…

Author: Joel Rathus, ANU

The global financial crisis forced East Asian nations to get serious about regional architecture.

As global trade entered a precarious decline during the height of the crisis in 2008–09, one of the obvious areas of focus for East Asia was trade regionalism, aimed at making East Asia a more efficient production network and, over time, a final market in its own right. Read more…

Author: Ming Hwa Ting, University of Adelaide

Following Chinese restrictions on exports to Japan after the Senkaku maritime incident in September the spotlight has remained on rare earth metals. But it is difficult to ascertain the details of the restrictions as the Chinese government did not impose an official ban.

Disruptions in the supply chain, according to the Chinese government, were due to the private actions of rare metals exporters. In China, there are 32 companies with a licence to export rare metals, of which 10 are foreign owned. Although Japan’s detention of the Chinese trawler captain may have roused the ire of Chinese firms, it is hard to see why foreign-owned companies would react likewise. Read more…

Author: Joel Rathus, Adelaide University

Early last Friday morning, the video taken by the Japanese Coast Guard of the 7 September collision between the JCG’s Mizuki and the Yonakuni and a Chinese fishing boat, the Min Jin Yu-5179 was leaked to youtube by a user known only as Sengoku38. There is no doubt that this is the real footage.

It is ironic that the characters forming the name of the Min Jin Yu refers to the start of the Warring States period in Chinese history. This connection has been picked up by the leaker of the footage, whose name ‘Sengoku38′ means ‘Warring States 38’. The 38 in the leaker’s name may refer to events during the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1938, a disturbing suggestion of a neo-nationalist agenda. Indeed, this name seems to symbolize the possibility that this incident will mark the start of an adversarial relationship rather than simply rivalry between China and Japan.

What does it show? Read more…

Author: Aurelia George Mulgan, ADFA@UNSW

Japan’s new DPJ government initially set out to rebalance Japan’s relations between the United States and Asia by emphasising a more independent Asia-oriented diplomacy with an East Asian Community as the centrepiece.

Japanese rhetoric about the alliance has also changed: There was more talk of an ‘equal’ alliance and a security stance ‘equidistant’ between the United States and China. Read more…

Author: Satoshi Amako, Waseda University

Since the Senkaku Islands ship collision incident, media sensationalism has raged, and Japan-China relations have been greatly shaken. In the middle of this upheaval, which involved the cancellation of various Japan-China related events, I went to Beijing on September 26 to participate in the Japan-China-Korea Symposium hosted by the Chinese East Asia Forum. The keynote speech strongly urged that ‘given the current difficulties, dialogue between Japan and China is necessary more than ever. Cutting off dialogue will not achieve anything’. Almost all of the 150 participants enthusiastically supported the idea. The worsening relation is saddening, and I sincerely hope improvements can be realized as also did many of the Chinese participants.

So, how should we interpret the recent sequence of events? Read more…

Author: Yoichi Funabashi, Asahi Shimbun

I have serious reservations about the way the Chinese government acted toward Japan over the incident involving a violation of territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands by a Chinese trawler, and especially, after the boat’s captain was arrested.

In Japan, public opinion has been highly critical of the government led by the Democratic Party of Japan, with its decisions described as ‘a national disgrace brought about through diplomatic defeat.’ Admittedly, many measures taken by the government were half-hearted, from the lack of any decision by prosecutors to indict the captain, to the handling of a Japan Coast Guard video of the collision between the trawler and two patrol vessels. Read more…

Author: Joel Rathus, Adelaide University

Sino-Japanese relations have entered a dangerous new era. Previously, Japan was willing to take an unobtrusive and patient approach to China. But last month’s less than diplomatic arm wrestle over the fate of the arrested captain of a Chinese fishing boat in disputed territory in the East China Sea may have effectively ended Japan’s ambivalence toward China.

For better or worse, the only real chance for Sino-Japanese relations to become the fulcrum for a new East Asian century has resided with the DPJ, as opposed to the more almost cynical policy of the LDP which, when in power, promoted an East Asian regionalism excluding China. Read more…

Author: Kazuhiko Togo, Kyoto Sangyo University

Discussions over the recent collision in waters near the Senkaku Islands between a Chinese trawler and two Japan Coast Guard vessels have not really touched upon the essence of the issue: The situation could escalate into a military confrontation between Japan and China.

It is not entirely clear what China’s true intent was. Read more…

Author: Sourabh Gupta, Samuels International

In the inflamed commentary that has followed the Chinese skipper’s collision with Japanese coast guard vessels in the East China Sea, there has perhaps been no more flawed a characterisation than portrayal of the incident exclusively through the lens of territoriality. In fact, considering the location of the clash — in coastal waters abutting the disputed Senkaku Islands — and the prior existence of mutually agreed disciplines (Sino-Japanese Fisheries Agreement of 1997) that seek to functionally quarantine Senkaku-related bilateral fisheries disputes from the charged accompanying issue of territorial title, portrayals of the incident have ranged from the naïve to the disingenuous.

This failure of analysis has not been limited exclusively to Western observers. Read more…

Author: John Hemmings, RUSI

East Asia is dominated by the security triangle between the US, Japan and China. The US-Japan Alliance has greater aggregated economic and military might, but has been relatively static in recent years. Simultaneously, Chinese economic and military power is growing exponentially. In this context, growing Sino-Japanese political ties seem to indicate that Japan is considering its options.

Is a realignment in the security triangle taking place or are these developments merely cosmetic? Read more…

Author: Tobias Harris, MIT

In different ways, two articles published in Western media outlets this week suggest the emergence of a new narrative concerning Japan in elite circles in the United States. One might call that narrative the ‘losing Japan’ narrative, reminiscent of the idea — propagated by newsman Henry Luce — that the United States, or rather, the Democratic Party ‘lost’ China when the Communists won the Chinese Civil War. This narrative suggests that the United States is ‘losing’ Japan to China, raising a call to arms that unless the US government acts expeditiously it could let the DPJ-led government lead Japan into China’s embrace.

The first is the now infamous editorial in the Washington Post on Fujita Yukihisa, the DPJ upper house member best known for his doubts about the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Read more…

Author: Joel Rathus, Meiji and Adelaide Universities

Much has been made of late about the possibility of Japan drawing closer to China. But on the major issues of historical record, trade, and security, Japan’s China policy is unchanged under the DPJ, and is unlikely to change in the near future.

Firstly, on the question of history, Hatoyama is unlikely to make major changes. According to the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hatoyama has no plans to visit Nanjing this year, and as far as MOFA is aware there is no plan for an apology of any form. Indeed, after rumors broke that there might be a ‘Hatoyama to Nanjing, Hu to Hiroshima’ swap this year, the only country not to check-in with MOFA’s China desk about the truth of these rumours was China itself. Read more…

Author: Shiro Armstrong, ANU

The Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) secretary general and power broker Ozawa Ichiro recently took 645 DPJ members and other leaders to China in an unprecedented move for both countries. This is a big step in following up on the DJP’s promise to mend relations with China. There is talk now of making progress on the difficult history issue and of moving beyond it. Other rumours have Prime Minister Hatoyama visiting Nanjing this year — the site of Japanese imperial war atrocities — in exchange for a visit by President Hu to Hiroshima.

The Sino-Japanese relationship has come a long way since a decade ago. Read more…

Author: Reinhard Drifte

After the Koizumi era, particularly since the beginning of the Hatoyama cabinet, Japan’s relations with China seem to be improving, and both sides have made encouraging statements. Nevertheless, there are many contrasting developments that demonstrate the continuing fragility of the relationship.

For the Japanese, there is a feeling that somehow bilateral problems will be resolved because both sides agree about the importance of a good relationship for their own national interests, Read more…