Secondly, the iron triangle between the LDP, Japanese business and the bureaucracy must undergo a restructuring. In recent years, the flaws of this power arrangement have become ever more apparent. Issues surrounding money politics have never been resolved; there has been frequent corruption scandal, illegal campaign financing, wasteful management of public finance and increasing wealth disparity and unfunded pension liability have all contributed to voters’ disillusionment with the LDP government.
Thirdly, the DJP’s electoral victory in the House of Representatives finally puts to rest the twisted situation of having ruling and opposition parties in control of lower and upper houses respectively. This is positive news for the recovery of the Japanese economy.
In the future, the DJP administration will face numerous challenges. Firstly, in the arena of foreign and security policies, there are disparate opinions within the DJP and its governing coalition partners, the People’s New Party (Kokumin Shinto) and the Social Democratic Party; there is a need to reconcile these different opinions. Secondly, many inexperienced and unproven DJP Diet members have been swept into the Diet in a DJP landslide. They face significant challenges in managing the vexed relationship between the government and the bureaucracy. Thirdly, there will be a House of Councillors election in July next year. If the DJP fails to meet the expectations of voters, it is possible that some voters may swing back to the LDP in order to strengthen its effectiveness as the government-in-waiting. Fourthly, Hatoyama Yukio’s finance team was allegedly involved in illegal campaign financing activities, similar to the allegations about what his predecessor and the chief secretary of the DJP, Ozawa Ichiro, was mired in, resulting in his resignation. Fifthly, it would be interesting to observe how the DJP resolves it differences with the United States over the polemical issue of American military bases in Japan.
The foreign policy leanings of the new Hatoyama administration are relatively moderate. Before next year’s House of Councillors election, it will not aggressively pursue the goal of constitutional amendment. It is also cautious on the issue of sending the Japanese Self-Defence Force abroad. The DJP’s main leaders have all vowed not to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and are more attentive to the relationship with Japan’s Asian neighbours. In the future, the DJP government is likely to simultaneously strengthen the relationships with both the United States and China. It will rectify the LDP’s one-sided policy of over-reliance on the United States.
Overall, if the Hatoyama government can stay in power for an extended period of time, a better relationship between Japan and its Asian neighbours is to be expected.
Liu Jiangyong is a Professor of Japanese Studies at the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University and a leading Chinese specialist on Japanese and regional affairs.