The impact of this decision is that it belies a narrative the Obama Administration had tried to write that it was going to get Asia right and engage the region at the highest levels to advance American interests in a serious and sustained manner. It was going to reverse the woeful attendance record of the Bush Administration for showing up for the major events in Asia, and understood that ‘being there’ was more than half the battle for changing perceptions of US disengagement. That storyline lost credibility today.
The decision will also send tremors of uncertainty through Southeast Asia. Indonesia is the largest country in ASEAN and it is well known that President Obama has a close personal interest in this anchor nation of the region. If he can’t show up there after three attempts, how likely is it that the US is serious about sustaining its involvement in the region at a political level? At a time when the region has serious questions about how far they want to go with China’s charm offensive, the apparent lack of US focus will make the region’s leaders feel anxious and unbalanced. If not corrected in the near term, it may also send them thinking about strategic alternatives which could influence thinking about regional structures. Is the United States really ready to be part of the East Asia Summit? What if the President of the US doesn’t show for Summit meetings?
To his credit, the President made the call early, phoned President Yudhoyono and Prime Minister Rudd, and explained the urgency of the situation in the Gulf. Both leaders have said they understand and there are plans to meet on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 meeting in Toronto, Canada later this month. But the damage is done.
The factor that must be addressed to prevent this situation from becoming endemic is that leaders —like President Obama — must have the courage to explain to Americans why travelling to countries like Indonesia — the fourth largest nation in the world — and Australia, a treaty ally and critical friend — is as important to our country’s economy and national security as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf and that he needs to follow through on plans to develop ties with these countries while he manages the Gulf situation using technology and his team.
A creative writer like Wolfe would be hard pressed to come up with a plot in which a British oil company not only fouls the world renowned Gulf oyster but also derails a significant element of US foreign policy in Asia. Truth, once again, outperforms fiction.
Ernie Bower is head of the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS.
One reason President Yudhoyono will have regretted Obama’s decision to postpone his visit yet again is that he will now miss the opportunity of raising directly with his US counterpart the issue of the Israeli attack on the aid flotilla that took place several days ago. He committed himself to do so soon after the attack occurred. This is one question on which Indonesian and American attitudes are poles apart. SBY expressed the intention to take up the Palestinian issue almost as soon as he was first elected in 2004 but he has not found any way of doing so since then, though he did attend Arafat’s funeral in Cairo in 2005. Conscious that Indonesia is the largest Muslim nation in the world, Yudhoyono and other members of the Indonesian political elite have been frustrated by their inability to wield any influence over the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Israel commands virtual no sympathy in Indonesian public opinion, which foredoomed to failure Gus Dur’s attempt to open diplomatic relations with it during his presidency. A couple of Indonesians are reported to have been on the Mavi Marmara and to have been injured by the Israelis, lending some urgency to SBY’s raising the issue with Obama. The Foreign Ministry has issued a statement discouraging further Indonesian participation in Gaza peace flotillas. However much the strategic partnership between the two countries prospers, the Middle East is one area with regard to which, to alter somewhat a hackneyed Bidenism, a great deal of sunlight separates their respective positions.
As a footnote to the above comment: On 8 June, SBY is reported to have received at his palace five of some twelve Indonesians who were on Gaza aid flotilla boats. He described theirs as a ‘noble mission.’