The vessel was suspected of fishing illegally in Japanese-controlled waters and then deliberately colliding with JCG vessels that followed it. While the fishing boat and its 14 other crew have been released, the captain remains in custody.
While Japan’s judicial processes have been strongly criticized in the past, they are founded in statute and subject to independent judicial review. The procedures apply equally to Japanese citizens, although prosecutors’ requests for extensions of custody are more often granted in the case of foreigners who are a perceived flight risk. Ironically the tough stance by Beijing compounded the probability that the captain would not return to Japan to face any subsequent legal action. The separation of the executive and judiciary is a fundamental principle in Japan. Chinese demands for the immediate unconditional release of the captain are misguided.
In the meantime, China’s actions in response to the captain’s detention have been disproportionate.
China has suspended a range of high-level government talks with Japan, including over the expansion of bilateral air linkages, and is threatening a severe escalation in retaliation for the captain’s detention. It is anticipated that, contrary to previous moves for joint development, Beijing might unilaterally launch drilling in a disputed undersea gas field.
In addition, China has suspended a substantial youth exchange initiative. This is not just a detail. Some 620 college students and 380 other youths should have been departing from Japan to China on Tuesday the 21st of September. They were to visit the Shanghai Expo on a goodwill mission, returning Friday. The trip had been planned following an agreement between Yukio Hatoyama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in May. The Japanese Foreign Ministry correctly described the Chinese suspension of the program as inappropriate and regrettable, especially at such short notice. There have also been reports of Chinese government measures to curtail impending Chinese tourism to Japan.
Such brazen state interference with mobility for political ends is yet another reminder that the PRC is still not a ‘normal state’ as understood in Japan or the liberal West. While the Japanese populace is rather accustomed to the suspension of government-level dialogues, the suspension of such a positive youth initiative will have a profoundly negative impact on Japanese perceptions of China.
Some analysts have pointed out that China’s actions are directed not only at the inexperienced Naoto Kan-led DPJ Government, but also at Southeast Asian nations with whom China has existing territorial disputes. If this is the case, these actions will rebound on China. They reinforce growing concerns about what a region characterized by Chinese predominance would be like. In doing so, they emphasise that the US remains an important counterweight to China’s rise, and encourage Indonesia to join together with other Southeast Asian nations such as Japan, South Korea, and South Asia to form a stable regional bloc.
Some analysts have suggested that Japan may be seeking to take advantage of a chill in US-Japan relations after Japan mishandled the Futenma base issue. If this is the case, Beijing has again made a profound tactical miscalculation. In singling out Seiji Maehara for criticism, who as then infrastructure, transport and tourism minister, was responsible both for the Japan Coast Guard at the time of the incident and the air linkage talks initiative, Beijing has made a direct challenge to the personal authority of the man who has just become foreign minister. Maehara possesses a deep familiarity with US alliance issues and is prepared to tackle head-on the unrealistic and reflexive anti-US hostility of many on the left of Japanese politics. China’s bellicose stance is a gift – it helps him work with those in government and civil society who are endeavouring to put US-Japan relations back on an even keel.
Perhaps Beijng was betting on Ichiro Ozawa winning the prime ministership from Kan during the recent DPJ presidential ballot. Perhaps getting tough on Maehara, a vociferous critic of Ozawa, may seem to be a natural reaction to Ozawa’s diminished stature. But it seems the Chinese learnt nothing from the Koizumi years, when Beijing’s dismay at the charismatic former prime minister’s visits to Yasukuni Shrine did nothing to dent his domestic standing.
The ostensibly spontaneous reaction by the Chinese populace to Japan’s actions also conceals a deep internal problem. Security concerns over rising anti-Japanese sentiment have been cited as a consideration in the suspension of cultural exchange activities. Either the Chinese state lacks the capacity to secure law and order at home, or Beijing has a hand in anti-Japanese activity. Given the sophistication of Chinese efforts to control information flows, exemplified by Google’s withdrawal from the PRC, and recent crackdowns on dissent, it is more likely that China has deliberately manipulated anti-Japanese sentiment. Such conduct is obviously unneighborly and should remind the Japanese that Chinese demand for Japanese exports is no easy panacea for stalled economic reforms at home.
Chinese commentators have suggested that Japan is now economically dependent upon China and is therefore likely to compromise. This is no truer than it was in Koizumi’s time. China’s response to Japan’s detention of a fishing captain should draw the US into the Asia-Pacific region. That this will likely occur indicates the magnitude of China’s error.
Christopher Pokarier is an Associate Professor of Business at the School of International Studies, Waseda University.