With the Labor Party and its new leader, Julia Gillard, coming out on top, one of the politically juicy questions has been the role of former leader, Kevin Rudd. Gillard’s decision to appoint him foreign minister generated much public discussion. Would he be an effective minister? What would his legendary manic work habits mean for Australia’s foreign service? And above all, what would it mean for the dynamics of the Cabinet and Gillard’s authority as leader to have Rudd in such a prominent role?
None of these considerations are trivial, but there is a bigger issue that is only just now under examination. For a mix of reasons, foreign policy is at serious risk of being side-lined in Australia. This would be bad for both Australia and Asia. Kevin Rudd may be able to mitigate this threat.
Despite some differences, through the years of both Kevin Rudd’s and John Howard’s leadership, Australian foreign policy was characterised by a bipartisan activism in Asia. This took place on the back of a booming domestic economy and solid parliamentary majorities. The momentum for this activism could very likely dissipate now.
Partly this is because neither Julia Gillard nor her opponent, Tony Abbott, carries foreign policy high on their list of personal priorities. Both have solid core instincts on foreign policy, but their passions, strengths and experiences both point in a more domestic direction. But this goes well beyond just personal dispositions, for current circumstances demand a heavy domestic emphasis. A large backlog of complex and politically fraught problems demand attention – macroeconomic management post-crisis and post-fiscal stimulus, carbon pricing, mining taxes and assorted sectoral issues ranging from telecommunications infrastructure, to healthcare, to immigration completely dominate the political agenda.
More pointed still, the government’s precarious grip on power means that much more so than usual, it will be consumed with the day-to-day challenge of preserving a legislative majority. This week, for the first time in decades, the Australian Government lost a vote on the floor of the House of Representatives. The issue itself was relatively minor, but the result powerfully symbolises the fragility of the situation. No leader, in such circumstances, can afford to give the time that foreign policy would normally receive.
Enter Kevin Rudd. Whether one admires Rudd or not, some things about him are clear. He comes to the job with an instant mastery of the issues and, by Australian standards, unsurpassed familiarity and top-level access right around Asia and the Pacific. There will be no learning curve for Rudd. But more than this, while there may be no love between Rudd and Gillard, there is also no real disagreement between them on foreign policy. Gillard broadly endorses the mainstream (and largely bi-partisan) consensus in Australian foreign policy thinking, of which Rudd is a principal bearer. And in many respects, it is likely to suit Gillard and her senior colleagues to have Rudd out of the way domestically and busily engaged abroad.
All of this means that, through Rudd, there is a better chance of momentum being maintained in Australian foreign policy. Of course this matters for Australia. But it matters for Asia as well. Australia is one of a small number of countries that is disproportionately active and influential in focusing and advancing the regional agenda. This is typical of so-called ‘middle powers’. Australia’s recent success in pushing the reform of regional architecture to the top of the agenda and having it now carried forward by ASEAN is an illustration of this.
Canada used to be active in this space, but has been missing in action for some years now while its government has been consumed with domestic affairs. Japan too, has seen its regional influence diminish owing to a preoccupation with domestic issues. The region has become reliant on countries like Australia, South Korea, Singapore and now Indonesia again to help move common interests forward.
The tremendous changes going on across Asia create urgent need for collective engagement on big regional issues. For familiar reasons, the biggest players are often not best positioned to nurture this. Asia cannot afford to have too many constructive foreign policy activists side-lined simultaneously.
It is unclear how long the current fragility of government in Australia will last, but while it does, Kevin Rudd’s appointment as Foreign Minister is good news for anyone who cares about not just Australian foreign policy but the advancement of regional cooperation across Asia.
Andrew MacIntyre is Dean of the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University.